Northwestern
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
56  Aubrey Roberts SO 19:44
207  Sarah Nicholson SO 20:17
606  Isabel Seidel SR 21:00
759  Haley Albers SR 21:12
951  Sara Coffey SR 21:25
1,041  Andrea Ostenso SR 21:31
1,056  Hannah Tobin FR 21:31
1,356  Amanda Davis FR 21:51
1,681  Brooke Pigneri SR 22:11
1,729  Kelly O' Brien SO 22:15
National Rank #60 of 348
Midwest Region Rank #5 of 37
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.9%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 18.4%
Top 10 in Regional 86.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aubrey Roberts Sarah Nicholson Isabel Seidel Haley Albers Sara Coffey Andrea Ostenso Hannah Tobin Amanda Davis Brooke Pigneri Kelly O' Brien
OSU Cowboy Jamboree (Orange) 09/30 788 19:42 20:01 20:54 21:26 21:31 21:10 21:56 21:53 22:50
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 21:58 22:35 22:27
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 799 19:47 20:13 22:34 20:53 21:04 21:02 21:32
Big Ten Championship 10/29 837 19:34 20:23 20:54 21:14 21:29 21:34 21:31 21:41 22:12
Midwest Region Championships 11/10 889 19:55 20:42 20:34 21:36 21:29 21:34 21:53





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.9% 28.2 660 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1
Region Championship 100% 7.7 269 0.5 1.9 5.0 11.0 14.3 16.3 16.2 13.3 8.6 6.5 3.8 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aubrey Roberts 73.6% 59.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2
Sarah Nicholson 1.8% 106.3
Isabel Seidel 0.9% 210.0
Haley Albers 0.9% 225.5
Sara Coffey 0.9% 238.5
Andrea Ostenso 0.9% 238.0
Hannah Tobin 0.9% 242.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aubrey Roberts 5.6 0.5 7.7 11.5 10.4 12.5 12.7 12.4 10.3 8.1 5.5 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sarah Nicholson 16.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.0 3.9 5.0 5.9 6.2 5.7 6.4 5.8 5.0 5.7 5.1 3.8 3.6 4.2 2.9 3.0 2.0 1.7
Isabel Seidel 63.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6
Haley Albers 83.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Sara Coffey 105.9 0.1
Andrea Ostenso 115.0
Hannah Tobin 118.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 2
3 1.9% 2.6% 0.1 1.9 0.1 3
4 5.0% 5.1% 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.7 0.3 4
5 11.0% 0.5% 0.1 11.0 0.1 5
6 14.3% 0.4% 0.1 14.2 0.1 6
7 16.3% 16.3 7
8 16.2% 16.2 8
9 13.3% 13.3 9
10 8.6% 8.6 10
11 6.5% 6.5 11
12 3.8% 3.8 12
13 1.1% 1.1 13
14 1.2% 1.2 14
15 0.4% 0.4 15
16 0.1% 0.1 16
17 0.1% 0.1 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
Total 100% 0.9% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.1 0.5 0.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0