Villanova
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
67  Bella Burda JR 19:48
111  Nicole Hutchinson JR 20:00
179  Lauren Ryan FR 20:12
204  Siofra Cleirigh Buttner SR 20:17
208  Kaley Ciluffo JR 20:17
223  Rachel McArthur FR 20:20
325  Katie Fisher SR 20:33
433  Maria Seykora SR 20:45
821  Alex Harris FR 21:17
847  Ann Campbell SO 21:18
1,677  Erin Jaskot SR 22:11
National Rank #19 of 348
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #2 of 38
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 91.2%
Most Likely Finish 16th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 15.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 63.0%


Regional Champion 43.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Bella Burda Nicole Hutchinson Lauren Ryan Siofra Cleirigh Buttner Kaley Ciluffo Rachel McArthur Katie Fisher Maria Seykora Alex Harris Ann Campbell Erin Jaskot
Main Line Invitational 09/15 457 20:01 19:28 20:25 20:10 20:16 20:58 20:55 22:04
Paul Short Gold 09/29 496 19:55 19:36 20:13 20:16 20:39 20:54 21:08 21:02
Penn State National Open 10/13 479 19:47 20:01 20:19 20:09 20:22 20:40 20:44 21:14 21:22 22:13
Big East Championship 10/28 457 19:41 20:00 20:05 20:30 20:11 20:35 20:31 20:35 21:32 21:47
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/10 469 19:44 20:14 20:13 20:11 20:11 20:18 20:42





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 91.2% 17.1 455 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.9 2.3 3.4 4.4 3.9 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.7 3.9 4.3 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.4 4.0 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.0
Region Championship 100% 1.7 55 43.8 42.1 12.4 1.6 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bella Burda 97.5% 69.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0
Nicole Hutchinson 93.2% 99.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lauren Ryan 91.8% 137.5 0.1
Siofra Cleirigh Buttner 91.3% 149.4
Kaley Ciluffo 91.3% 152.4
Rachel McArthur 91.4% 156.9
Katie Fisher 91.2% 191.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bella Burda 2.3 28.7 18.1 11.1 9.2 7.2 6.0 4.1 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Nicole Hutchinson 6.3 5.5 9.8 8.5 9.2 8.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 4.9 5.3 4.2 4.1 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7
Lauren Ryan 13.5 0.4 1.9 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.0 4.6 4.3 5.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.6
Siofra Cleirigh Buttner 16.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.4 4.0 5.9 4.5 4.9 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.4 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.8
Kaley Ciluffo 16.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.2 3.9 4.7 4.5 3.8 4.1 4.8 3.4 3.7 2.9 3.0 2.6
Rachel McArthur 18.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.1 5.5 4.4 5.0 4.5 4.9 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.3
Katie Fisher 26.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.4 4.8 3.2 5.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 43.8% 100.0% 43.8 43.8 1
2 42.1% 100.0% 42.1 42.1 2
3 12.4% 37.2% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 7.8 4.6 3
4 1.6% 40.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.7 4
5 0.1% 0.1 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
Total 100% 91.2% 43.8 42.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 8.9 85.9 5.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgia 96.9% 1.0 1.0
Dartmouth 21.2% 1.0 0.2
Cornell 13.1% 2.0 0.3
Oklahoma State 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Princeton 9.3% 2.0 0.2
Duke 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Arizona 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 1.4% 1.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Miss State 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 8.0