Yale
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
145  Andrea Masterson JR 20:07
185  Sevanne Ghazarian FR 20:13
272  Kayley DeLay FR 20:27
385  Dana Klein SR 20:40
533  Kate Raphael SR 20:54
733  Ellie Atkinson JR 21:10
933  Melissa Fairchild SR 21:24
1,283  Jane Miller SO 21:46
1,605  Gabi Rinne JR 22:06
1,994  Emily Kaplan JR 22:32
National Rank #42 of 348
Northeast Region Rank #5 of 44
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 18.8%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 2.7%


Regional Champion 3.7%
Top 5 in Regional 62.1%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Andrea Masterson Sevanne Ghazarian Kayley DeLay Dana Klein Kate Raphael Ellie Atkinson Melissa Fairchild Jane Miller Gabi Rinne Emily Kaplan
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/23 698 20:04 20:14 20:34 20:25 20:51 21:28 22:04 21:56 23:05
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 725 20:05 20:12 20:26 20:48 20:50 21:32
Ivy League Championship 10/27 684 19:50 20:04 20:17 20:59 20:58 21:17 21:17 21:54 22:16 22:01
Northeast Region Championships 11/10 793 20:16 20:30 20:34 20:37 20:47 21:32 21:26





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 18.8% 25.4 604 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.1
Region Championship 100% 4.8 157 3.7 10.1 13.6 18.3 16.5 15.9 14.4 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrea Masterson 30.9% 101.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sevanne Ghazarian 23.7% 119.8
Kayley DeLay 19.3% 153.4
Dana Klein 18.8% 185.0
Kate Raphael 18.8% 211.4
Ellie Atkinson 18.8% 232.8
Melissa Fairchild 19.0% 243.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrea Masterson 12.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.1 4.7 5.8 6.6 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.4 4.1 4.7 3.7 3.0 3.7 2.4 3.3 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.5
Sevanne Ghazarian 15.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.5 5.7 4.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.4 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.2
Kayley DeLay 25.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.5 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.1 3.2 4.8 3.5 3.7 3.3
Dana Klein 37.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.9
Kate Raphael 55.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0
Ellie Atkinson 82.0 0.1
Melissa Fairchild 106.6 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 3.7% 100.0% 3.7 3.7 1
2 10.1% 100.0% 10.1 10.1 2
3 13.6% 25.8% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 10.1 3.5 3
4 18.3% 7.1% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 17.0 1.3 4
5 16.5% 1.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 16.3 0.2 5
6 15.9% 15.9 6
7 14.4% 14.4 7
8 5.2% 5.2 8
9 2.1% 2.1 9
10 0.3% 0.3 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
Total 100% 18.8% 3.7 10.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 81.2 13.8 5.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0