Yale
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
174  Frances Schmiede SR 20:15
176  Emily Waligurski SR 20:15
243  Dana Klein JR 20:25
255  Kelli Reagan JR 20:27
261  Andrea Masterson SO 20:28
269  Meredith Rizzo SR 20:29
357  Ellie Atkinson SO 20:40
451  Gemma Shepherd FR 20:50
864  Kate Raphael JR 21:23
876  Melissa Fairchild JR 21:24
1,048  Sarah Healy JR 21:35
1,170  Emily Barnes SR 21:43
National Rank #31 of 344
Northeast Region Rank #3 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 92.2%
Most Likely Finish 31st at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 2.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 22.9%


Regional Champion 5.8%
Top 5 in Regional 97.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Frances Schmiede Emily Waligurski Dana Klein Kelli Reagan Andrea Masterson Meredith Rizzo Ellie Atkinson Gemma Shepherd Kate Raphael Melissa Fairchild Sarah Healy
Fordham University Fiasco Invitational 09/10 1198 21:11 21:29
Hyp 09/17 671 20:16 20:17 20:25 20:29 20:28 20:28 20:51 21:18 21:03 21:24
Paul Short Invitational (Gold) 10/01 564 20:07 20:01 20:35 20:11 20:28 20:26 20:46 20:41 21:00 21:14
NEICAAA Championship 10/08 1285
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 558 20:47 20:02 20:17 20:15 20:24 20:12 20:23
Ivy League Championship 10/29 665 20:12 20:05 20:29 20:53 20:28 20:41 20:39 21:00 21:42 21:50 21:53
Northeast Region Championships 11/11 729 20:11 21:03 20:34 20:30 20:26 20:36 21:39





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 92.2% 24.3 581 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.4 4.3 3.6 4.8 5.4 5.2 7.0 6.7 8.4 9.7 11.0
Region Championship 100% 2.9 103 5.8 31.6 42.2 12.9 4.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Frances Schmiede 92.3% 135.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Emily Waligurski 92.3% 135.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dana Klein 92.2% 164.2
Kelli Reagan 92.2% 171.7
Andrea Masterson 92.2% 172.7
Meredith Rizzo 92.2% 179.1 0.1
Ellie Atkinson 92.2% 202.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Frances Schmiede 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.5 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.0 5.2 4.7 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.1 4.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.2 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.9
Emily Waligurski 15.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.2 3.2 2.9 3.2 4.5 4.0 4.8 5.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.8 2.5 2.6
Dana Klein 22.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.9 4.0 4.1 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1
Kelli Reagan 23.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.5 3.2
Andrea Masterson 25.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.8 2.9 3.7 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.0
Meredith Rizzo 26.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.3
Ellie Atkinson 36.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.5 2.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.8% 100.0% 5.8 5.8 1
2 31.6% 100.0% 31.6 31.6 2
3 42.2% 99.5% 5.2 5.0 6.5 6.3 5.2 4.6 3.2 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 42.0 3
4 12.9% 98.8% 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 12.7 4
5 4.7% 4.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.5 0.2 5
6 1.9% 1.9 6
7 0.8% 0.8 7
8 0.3% 0.3 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 92.2% 5.8 31.6 5.2 6.4 8.6 8.1 6.9 6.2 4.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 7.8 37.4 54.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Harvard 74.3% 2.0 1.5
Penn 68.6% 3.0 2.1
Villanova 62.9% 2.0 1.3
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
West Virginia 27.1% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 2.0 0.4
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 2.7% 2.0 0.1
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 2.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 2.0 0.0
Georgia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.7
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 15.0