Riley
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #66
New Haven Semi-State Rank #15
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #5
Riley Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish 12th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 67.8%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Northern Indiana Conference Stomp South Bend City Meet Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Northern Indiana Conference Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/20 9/1 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 655 617 626 706 765 696 667 671 614 663
Team Adjusted Rating 617 626 688 668 696 667 671 614 663
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Northern Indiana Conference Stomp South Bend City Meet Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Northern Indiana Conference Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
309  Jared Chapin 10 17:16 16:53 17:16 17:17 17:33 17:01 17:07 17:13 17:24 17:38
313  Nolan O'Rourke 11 17:16 17:22 17:28 17:17 17:16 17:39 17:07 17:14 17:04 17:20
598  Josh Toppen 12 17:45 17:34 17:27 17:39 17:53 17:51 17:53 17:42 17:51
635  Isaac Baker 10 17:49 17:51 17:35 18:19 17:42 17:49 18:02 17:54 17:42 17:39
879  Cory Charles 12 18:09 19:10 18:17 18:13 17:53 17:53
1,113  Ricardo Carbajal Diaz 12 18:26 18:16 18:18 18:28 18:38 18:24 18:29 18:12 18:36 18:30
1,151  Bailey Harris 10 18:29 18:06 18:08 18:23 18:29 18:30 18:26 18:41 18:44 18:34
1,238  Alex Walters 12 18:34 18:25 18:16 18:29 18:37 18:32 18:57
1,358  Emery Harris 12 18:43 18:44
Dieter Ruszkowski 9 19:03 18:39 19:23 19:07 18:55 19:05
Aaron Denzer 12 19:09 19:03 18:54 19:09 19:10 19:23




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0% 23.0 563 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 67.8% 11.7 332 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.4 12.0 14.6 15.5 13.1 6.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 4.8 135 3.9 19.2 22.2 22.5 19.4 9.2 3.1 0.5
Sectionals 100% 2.5 74 0.0 57.3 36.5 6.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Chapin 0.2% 132.5 0.2% 0.2%
Nolan O'Rourke 0.3% 128.7 0.2% 0.3%
Josh Toppen 0.0% 165.0 0.0% 0.0%
Isaac Baker 0.0% 165.0 0.0% 0.0%
Cory Charles 0.0% 172.0 0.0% 0.0%
Ricardo Carbajal Diaz 0.0% 187.0 0.0% 0.0%
Bailey Harris 0.0% 194.0 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Chapin 95.3% 66.2 0.0 0.0 85.3% 94.4%
Nolan O'Rourke 94.6% 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.3% 93.5%
Josh Toppen 68.0% 106.8 0.7% 15.7%
Isaac Baker 67.9% 111.9 0.2% 9.8%
Cory Charles 67.8% 135.8 0.0% 0.2%
Ricardo Carbajal Diaz 67.8% 150.6 0.0% 0.0%
Bailey Harris 67.8% 152.6 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Chapin 100% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.8 5.3 6.0 5.5 5.9 6.1 5.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.7 2.9 2.3 100.0%
Nolan O'Rourke 100% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.0 2.9 3.2 100.0%
Josh Toppen 100% 35.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 100.0%
Isaac Baker 100% 38.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 100.0%
Cory Charles 100% 50.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ricardo Carbajal Diaz 100% 61.3 100.0%
Bailey Harris 100% 63.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jared Chapin 6.6 0.1 0.9 8.2 15.5 16.6 14.2 11.4 9.8 7.1 5.5 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
Nolan O'Rourke 6.7 0.0 0.9 7.4 15.2 16.4 13.5 12.0 9.6 7.4 6.0 4.0 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Josh Toppen 16.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.9 6.9 8.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 10.7 7.0 5.1 3.4 1.9 1.2 0.8
Isaac Baker 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.3 7.0 8.6 10.7 12.0 12.4 10.4 7.8 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.4
Cory Charles 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.3 6.0 8.2 9.7 10.6 9.8 9.8
Ricardo Carbajal Diaz 29.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.9
Bailey Harris 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.8 3.1