All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Hamilton County |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Flashrock Invitational |
Golden Bear Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
Noblesville JV Invitational |
Noblesville Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/3 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/5 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
10/29 |
| Team Rating |
70 | |
356 |
52 |
242 |
69 |
68 |
303 |
58 |
554 |
239 |
123 |
77 |
109 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
65 |
52 |
70 |
69 |
68 |
70 |
58 |
70 |
73 |
83 |
77 |
109 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Hamilton County |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Flashrock Invitational |
Golden Bear Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
Noblesville JV Invitational |
Noblesville Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 1 |
Kole Mathison |
12 |
15:04 |
15:06 |
|
15:11 |
|
15:07 |
15:09 |
|
15:08 |
|
|
15:21 |
15:01 |
15:03 |
| 2 |
Anthony Provenzano |
11 |
15:18 |
|
|
15:37 |
|
15:37 |
15:23 |
|
15:20 |
|
|
15:26 |
15:13 |
15:11 |
| 19 |
Charlie Leedke |
12 |
15:50 |
16:03 |
|
15:47 |
|
15:44 |
15:58 |
|
15:37 |
|
15:54 |
|
15:56 |
16:00 |
| 37 |
Jack Capes |
10 |
16:05 |
16:34 |
16:01 |
15:47 |
|
16:03 |
15:59 |
|
16:05 |
|
|
16:10 |
16:07 |
16:28 |
| 43 |
Thomas Biltimier |
11 |
16:10 |
16:11 |
|
15:59 |
|
16:10 |
16:08 |
|
16:05 |
|
|
16:14 |
16:13 |
16:24 |
| 95 |
Connor Mallon |
12 |
16:33 |
16:18 |
|
16:50 |
16:22 |
16:21 |
16:37 |
|
16:19 |
|
|
16:42 |
16:34 |
16:44 |
| 110 |
Kyle Grove |
11 |
16:37 |
16:59 |
|
16:40 |
16:29 |
16:48 |
16:39 |
16:41 |
16:36 |
|
16:28 |
|
|
|
| 122 |
Kiefer Jay |
10 |
16:41 |
16:59 |
16:54 |
16:51 |
16:34 |
16:48 |
16:34 |
16:40 |
16:28 |
|
|
16:57 |
|
|
| 124 |
Max Meisner |
11 |
16:43 |
16:43 |
|
16:54 |
16:39 |
16:31 |
17:15 |
16:53 |
16:39 |
|
16:29 |
|
|
|
| 129 |
Liam Oman |
12 |
16:45 |
16:44 |
|
16:24 |
16:32 |
16:53 |
16:46 |
16:43 |
16:57 |
|
16:47 |
|
|
|
| 130 |
KJ Sweeney |
12 |
16:45 |
16:23 |
|
|
16:31 |
16:37 |
16:46 |
16:34 |
16:33 |
|
16:52 |
16:34 |
17:11 |
17:31 |
| 200 |
Carter Buhr |
9 |
17:02 |
|
16:54 |
16:39 |
16:49 |
17:01 |
17:00 |
17:24 |
17:04 |
|
17:07 |
|
|
|
| 203 |
William Gilhooly |
10 |
17:03 |
17:02 |
17:25 |
17:30 |
17:36 |
17:06 |
16:51 |
17:06 |
16:50 |
|
16:43 |
|
|
|
| 255 |
Eli Gomez |
10 |
17:11 |
|
17:10 |
17:07 |
17:20 |
17:11 |
17:10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 306 |
Josh Cale |
10 |
17:18 |
17:29 |
17:15 |
17:32 |
17:21 |
17:15 |
17:23 |
17:16 |
17:08 |
17:24 |
|
|
|
|
| 346 |
Alex Mundt |
12 |
17:24 |
18:05 |
17:33 |
17:18 |
17:08 |
17:34 |
17:38 |
|
17:33 |
17:10 |
|
|
|
|
| 347 |
Neil Fairman |
12 |
17:24 |
17:30 |
17:58 |
17:11 |
17:16 |
17:18 |
17:11 |
17:26 |
17:28 |
17:35 |
|
|
|
|
| 359 |
Hayden Nagel |
11 |
17:26 |
17:19 |
|
17:30 |
17:16 |
17:10 |
17:14 |
17:39 |
17:56 |
17:22 |
|
|
|
|
| 523 |
Deklin Bowser |
9 |
17:46 |
|
17:54 |
|
18:18 |
17:41 |
17:55 |
|
17:40 |
17:37 |
|
|
|
|
| 547 |
Drew Grogan |
11 |
17:48 |
17:13 |
|
|
17:35 |
18:03 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 625 |
Julien Gourgue |
12 |
17:55 |
18:36 |
17:42 |
17:47 |
17:41 |
17:45 |
18:33 |
|
17:57 |
18:04 |
|
|
|
|
| 651 |
Everett Carlisle |
12 |
17:58 |
17:28 |
18:42 |
18:27 |
18:01 |
18:07 |
18:13 |
|
17:37 |
17:28 |
|
|
|
|
| 684 |
Joel Spittal |
11 |
18:01 |
17:40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
18:21 |
17:45 |
|
|
|
|
| 791 |
Cohen Levy |
10 |
18:12 |
18:38 |
17:43 |
18:18 |
18:46 |
18:11 |
18:41 |
|
18:02 |
18:02 |
|
|
|
|
| 818 |
Hudson Barry |
10 |
18:15 |
17:53 |
18:13 |
18:14 |
18:15 |
18:04 |
18:11 |
|
18:02 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
| 850 |
Isaac Perrin |
9 |
18:17 |
|
18:07 |
18:25 |
|
18:16 |
18:36 |
|
18:22 |
18:05 |
|
|
|
|
| 900 |
Lito Ledezma |
9 |
18:21 |
|
18:08 |
17:55 |
18:22 |
18:25 |
18:23 |
|
18:35 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 923 |
Nathan Dierckman |
12 |
18:23 |
18:43 |
18:40 |
|
18:38 |
18:11 |
18:16 |
|
18:30 |
18:14 |
|
|
|
|
| 945 |
Aidan Lemme |
10 |
18:25 |
|
18:48 |
18:22 |
18:48 |
18:47 |
18:08 |
|
18:18 |
18:10 |
|
|
|
|
| 967 |
Max Bontrager |
10 |
18:26 |
18:09 |
18:36 |
18:44 |
18:38 |
18:24 |
18:46 |
|
18:16 |
18:10 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,037 |
Patton Lee |
11 |
18:32 |
|
18:33 |
18:38 |
18:37 |
18:13 |
18:24 |
|
19:00 |
18:23 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,057 |
Charlie Stuelpe |
12 |
18:33 |
18:40 |
18:49 |
19:22 |
18:17 |
18:27 |
18:13 |
|
18:27 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,092 |
Grant Lawson |
10 |
18:36 |
|
18:04 |
18:36 |
18:42 |
18:30 |
18:37 |
|
18:55 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,143 |
Ryland Hill |
11 |
18:40 |
18:10 |
18:33 |
18:37 |
18:40 |
18:30 |
18:41 |
|
19:00 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,153 |
Josh Goedde |
12 |
18:41 |
18:39 |
18:43 |
|
18:45 |
18:38 |
19:02 |
|
18:43 |
18:24 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,157 |
Noah Yoon |
10 |
18:41 |
18:34 |
18:51 |
18:44 |
18:38 |
18:43 |
18:59 |
|
18:39 |
18:26 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,224 |
Andrew Cebalo |
12 |
18:46 |
18:50 |
19:17 |
19:55 |
18:30 |
19:00 |
19:00 |
|
17:52 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,227 |
Andrew Lobue |
12 |
18:46 |
|
19:00 |
19:14 |
18:41 |
19:31 |
18:35 |
|
18:09 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,332 |
Joey Arroyo |
11 |
18:54 |
17:46 |
|
|
18:43 |
19:04 |
18:45 |
|
19:02 |
18:56 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gavin Tosh |
11 |
19:03 |
|
19:32 |
|
19:30 |
19:04 |
18:58 |
|
19:01 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
Lucas Mallon |
10 |
19:04 |
18:33 |
17:51 |
19:12 |
17:55 |
19:30 |
19:49 |
|
|
19:03 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sebastian Balarezo |
9 |
19:04 |
|
18:54 |
19:22 |
19:03 |
19:03 |
19:15 |
|
18:56 |
19:06 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ben Leveque |
9 |
19:08 |
|
18:43 |
18:52 |
19:49 |
19:01 |
19:25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zach Flint |
9 |
19:09 |
|
19:21 |
20:22 |
19:07 |
19:01 |
18:48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
1.4 |
84 |
70.0 |
20.7 |
6.8 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
1.4 |
61 |
71.2 |
21.5 |
6.1 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.0 |
35 |
95.5 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.1 |
24 |
94.7 |
5.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kole Mathison |
100% |
1.0 |
73.9 |
18.2 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Anthony Provenzano |
100% |
2.4 |
3.6 |
36.1 |
26.2 |
12.8 |
7.9 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Charlie Leedke |
100% |
20.0 |
|
|
0.4 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
|
99.4% |
| Jack Capes |
100% |
39.4 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
86.5% |
| Thomas Biltimier |
100% |
47.9 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
|
75.8% |
| Connor Mallon |
100% |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
11.3% |
| Kyle Grove |
100% |
96.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.5% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kole Mathison |
100% |
1.0 |
76.2 |
18.7 |
3.7 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Anthony Provenzano |
100% |
2.1 |
3.6 |
42.9 |
31.1 |
11.6 |
4.9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Charlie Leedke |
100% |
11.3 |
|
|
0.7 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
7.4 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Jack Capes |
100% |
20.7 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Thomas Biltimier |
100% |
24.6 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Connor Mallon |
100% |
44.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|
98.8% |
| Kyle Grove |
100% |
48.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
97.3% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kole Mathison |
100% |
1.0 |
77.2 |
19.1 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Anthony Provenzano |
100% |
2.0 |
4.1 |
44.8 |
35.9 |
10.5 |
3.3 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Charlie Leedke |
100% |
6.7 |
|
|
1.2 |
7.1 |
11.6 |
15.5 |
19.8 |
22.8 |
12.2 |
5.3 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Jack Capes |
100% |
10.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
8.5 |
16.9 |
18.1 |
15.0 |
10.8 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Thomas Biltimier |
100% |
11.6 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
3.5 |
8.3 |
13.9 |
14.3 |
13.7 |
10.8 |
8.5 |
6.6 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Connor Mallon |
100% |
21.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Kyle Grove |
100% |
23.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Kole Mathison |
1.0 |
93.6 |
6.1 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Anthony Provenzano |
1.5 |
5.6 |
86.6 |
6.3 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Charlie Leedke |
4.1 |
|
|
23.2 |
22.3 |
32.4 |
12.9 |
5.4 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jack Capes |
6.8 |
|
|
0.5 |
3.8 |
8.1 |
20.6 |
22.2 |
17.0 |
11.2 |
6.8 |
4.2 |
2.6 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Thomas Biltimier |
8.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
9.1 |
16.9 |
19.0 |
15.4 |
12.2 |
8.9 |
5.9 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Connor Mallon |
14.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
3.9 |
6.3 |
7.3 |
10.5 |
11.7 |
12.4 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
11.6 |
6.7 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
| Kyle Grove |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
9.1 |
10.7 |
12.7 |
14.5 |
15.4 |
14.7 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
