Carmel
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #4
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #2
Noblesville Regional Rank #2
Noblesville Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 4th place at State Finals
State Champion 9.9%
Top 5 at State Finals 83.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville JV Meet Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/15 8/31 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/7 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 148 221 130 388 123 131 114 161 664 364 176 155 146
Team Adjusted Rating 120 130 148 123 131 114 161 148 152 176 155 146
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville JV Meet Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
3  Kole Mathison 11 15:19 15:06 15:07 14:51 15:29 15:25 15:26 15:29 15:24
7  Charlie Schuman 12 15:41 15:58 15:44 15:48 15:48 15:49 15:34 15:32 15:37
47  Charlie Leedke 11 16:16 15:52 16:09 16:06 16:11 16:10 16:10 16:40 16:26 16:18
87  Connor Mallon 11 16:32 16:22 16:19 16:15 16:19 16:14 16:36 16:44 17:16
92  Thomas Biltimier 10 16:33 16:34 16:30 16:44 16:39 16:22 17:48 16:37 16:35 16:24 16:31
107  KJ Sweeney 11 16:37 16:33 16:44 16:45 16:30 16:31 16:41 16:33 16:43 16:33
108  Connor Heagy 12 16:37 16:44 16:45 16:40 16:34 16:32 16:19 16:42 16:53 16:39 16:30
150  Lucas Lemme 12 16:52 16:51 17:05 16:44 16:43 16:58 17:02 16:37 16:57
223  Max Meisner 10 17:06 17:00 17:20 16:54 17:02 17:02 17:01 17:04 17:20
231  Quavion Hooks 11 17:07 17:31 17:14 17:01 16:51 17:34 16:59 16:57
236  Jack Capes 9 17:08 17:45 16:39 17:13 17:01 17:25 17:07 17:16 16:53
276  Eli Gomez 9 17:18 16:42 17:27
279  Liam Oman 11 17:18 17:09 17:32 17:15 17:27 17:06 17:26 17:03 17:23
392  Kiefer Jay 9 17:33 17:16 17:42 16:58 17:19 17:29 17:41 17:44 17:46
413  William Gilhooly 9 17:36 17:36 17:28 17:41 18:23 17:19 17:36 17:34
471  Everett Carlisle 11 17:43 17:52 18:00 17:57 17:38 17:34 17:28
485  Neil Fairman 11 17:45 17:35 17:50 17:58 17:25 17:51 17:45 17:39
499  Kyle Grove 10 17:46 17:56 17:50 17:49 18:26 17:49 17:32 17:24
603  Hayden Nagel 10 17:55 18:14 17:52 18:18 17:54 17:45 17:47
686  Josh Cale 9 18:05 17:45 18:05 18:08 18:20 18:12 18:08 17:50
726  Joel Spittal 10 18:09 18:06 18:18 18:33 17:54 18:08 18:10 17:57
747  Joey Arroyo 10 18:10 18:44 18:27 18:17 18:20 18:13 17:47 17:47
814  Drew Grogan 10 18:16 18:16 18:37 18:10 18:06
817  Josh Bubp 12 18:17 18:19 18:24 17:59 18:21
869  Alex Mundt 11 18:21 18:35 18:08 18:28 18:23 18:30 18:05
966  Hudson Barry 9 18:29 18:23 18:37 18:06 18:42
975  Cam Wien 12 18:30 19:09 18:07 18:31 18:24 18:18 18:39 18:35
1,029  Ryland Hill 10 18:35 19:07 18:55 18:59 18:00 18:39 18:09 18:29
1,119  Baker Simmons 11 18:42 18:49 19:26 19:07 18:36 18:24 18:37 18:30
1,140  Reece Colvin 12 18:44 18:26 18:22 18:31 19:05 19:03
1,176  Max Bontrager 9 18:45 18:35 18:57 18:53 18:37 18:51 18:54 18:31
1,269  Julien Gourgue 11 18:51 18:56 18:58 19:13 18:28 19:24 18:46 18:33
1,271  Carter Jay 11 18:52 19:26 18:58 18:54 19:22 18:34 18:21 18:56
1,299  Jack Lappin 12 18:55 19:08 18:54 18:59 18:44
1,301  Josh Goedde 11 18:55 19:05 18:50 19:09 19:12 18:54 18:53 18:41
1,308  Charlie Stuelpe 11 18:55 19:22 19:05 18:36 18:51 18:55 18:32 19:17
1,345  Nathan Dierckman 11 18:59 20:36 18:55 18:39
Dhruv Chavan 11 19:00 20:13 19:12 19:11 18:30 18:39
Andrew Cebalo 11 19:06 18:46 19:22 19:51 18:39 19:07
Andrew Lobue 12 19:08 19:17 19:46 19:49 18:42 18:42
Lucas Mallon 9 19:10 19:35 19:33 19:46 18:46 18:45 19:26 18:51
Noah Yoon 9 19:11 19:32 19:23 18:58 19:45 19:00 18:51 19:19
Cohen Levy 9 19:16 19:47 19:07 19:54 20:03 19:12 18:22 19:05
Evan Sanders 12 19:20 19:28 18:53 19:44 18:48 19:51
Henry Whitesitt 11 19:23 19:30 19:34 20:06 20:48 19:15 18:21 19:07
Nolan Latteral 11 19:28 18:49 20:11




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 3.8 147 9.9 15.6 18.7 20.1 18.7 12.7 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 2.2 76 19.5 42.8 32.9 4.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.8 49 24.9 74.0 1.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 29 99.2 0.8 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 2.6 15.2 22.3 22.3 20.3 9.5 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 7.9 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.7 11.3 11.7 10.3 9.5 7.8 6.9 5.7 4.7 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 48.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 88.2%
Connor Mallon 100% 83.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 45.2%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 86.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 41.7%
KJ Sweeney 100% 94.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.2%
Connor Heagy 100% 94.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 50.9 42.2 5.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 3.0 0.3 8.9 40.5 23.6 10.9 6.4 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 17.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.6 4.8 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.3 2.9 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 31.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.4 99.4%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 32.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.3 99.2%
KJ Sweeney 100% 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.3 98.3%
Connor Heagy 100% 36.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 98.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 51.9 43.0 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 2.9 0.3 8.6 46.8 28.3 8.7 3.2 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 11.4 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.7 6.0 6.4 7.3 8.8 8.9 9.8 10.0 9.3 8.2 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 17.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.7 5.1 6.8 8.4 10.1 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.0 6.1 4.8 3.7 2.4 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.6 9.3 9.9 9.5 9.0 8.3 7.0 5.0 4.6 3.1 100.0%
KJ Sweeney 100% 20.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.2 7.6 9.4 9.5 9.8 8.9 8.0 6.6 5.2 100.0%
Connor Heagy 100% 20.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.6 5.1 6.0 7.5 9.4 9.2 9.8 9.0 7.9 7.0 5.1 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 1.0 94.2 5.6 0.3 0.0
Charlie Schuman 1.9 0.6 57.1 35.0 4.9 1.6 0.6 0.1
Charlie Leedke 6.3 1.4 13.6 13.7 15.3 23.2 20.5 8.0 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Connor Mallon 9.7 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 5.0 10.5 17.4 19.2 16.7 12.1 7.5 3.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thomas Biltimier 10.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 4.1 8.7 15.5 18.9 17.2 14.2 9.2 5.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
KJ Sweeney 11.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3 8.5 13.4 17.0 19.0 15.9 9.5 4.8 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Connor Heagy 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 4.0 8.6 13.0 16.1 19.5 16.8 9.7 4.8 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0