Carmel
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #2
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 22.9%
Top 5 at State Finals 94.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville JV Meet Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional
Date 8/15 8/31 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/7 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 136 209 126 376 117 121 111 152 647 351 171
Team Adjusted Rating 114 126 136 117 121 111 152 136 135 171
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville JV Meet Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional
Kole Mathison 11 15:10 15:05 15:07 14:50 15:29 15:23 15:25
10  Charlie Schuman 12 15:46 15:56 15:43 15:47 15:47 15:47 15:34
29  Charlie Leedke 11 16:09 15:50 16:07 16:05 16:09 16:08 16:08 16:39
62  Connor Mallon 11 16:23 16:20 16:17 16:14 16:17 16:12 16:34 16:42
98  KJ Sweeney 11 16:36 16:31 16:42 16:43 16:28 16:29 16:38 16:31
105  Connor Heagy 12 16:37 16:41 16:43 16:38 16:32 16:29 16:17 16:39 16:51
110  Thomas Biltimier 10 16:38 16:32 16:28 16:42 16:36 16:20 17:44 16:35 16:34
145  Lucas Lemme 12 16:49 16:48 17:02 16:42 16:40 16:56 16:59 16:35
213  Max Meisner 10 17:03 16:57 17:17 16:51 16:59 16:59 16:59 17:00 17:18
214  Quavion Hooks 11 17:04 17:28 17:11 16:59 16:48 17:31 16:56 16:55
223  Eli Gomez 9 17:05 16:39 17:25
229  Jack Capes 9 17:06 17:41 16:37 17:10 16:59 17:22 17:04 17:12 16:50
291  Liam Oman 11 17:16 17:06 17:29 17:13 17:24 17:05 17:23 17:00 17:20
375  Kiefer Jay 9 17:27 17:13 17:39 16:56 17:16 17:26 17:38 17:40 17:43
420  William Gilhooly 9 17:33 17:33 17:25 17:38 18:20 17:17 17:32 17:31
480  Neil Fairman 11 17:40 17:32 17:46 17:55 17:24 17:48 17:40 17:37
504  Everett Carlisle 11 17:43 17:49 17:56 17:53 17:36 17:31 17:24
542  Kyle Grove 10 17:46 17:53 17:47 17:45 18:23 17:46 17:28 17:21
631  Hayden Nagel 10 17:56 18:09 17:49 18:14 17:52 17:40 17:45
682  Josh Cale 9 18:01 17:42 18:02 18:04 18:18 18:09 18:03 17:48
718  Joel Spittal 10 18:04 18:02 18:14 18:29 17:52 18:05 18:05 17:54
786  Josh Bubp 12 18:11 18:15 18:20 17:57 18:17
803  Joey Arroyo 10 18:12 18:39 18:23 18:13 18:18 18:10 17:42 17:44
826  Drew Grogan 10 18:13 18:14 18:33 18:06 18:03
876  Alex Mundt 11 18:17 18:31 18:05 18:23 18:19 18:25 18:02
970  Hudson Barry 9 18:25 18:19 18:33 18:04 18:38
1,007  Cam Wien 12 18:28 19:04 18:03 18:26 18:22 18:14 18:33 18:32
1,062  Reece Colvin 12 18:33 18:21 18:19 18:27 18:59 18:59
1,074  Ryland Hill 10 18:34 19:02 18:50 18:54 17:58 18:34 18:04 18:25
1,178  Baker Simmons 11 18:41 18:45 19:20 19:02 18:34 18:21 18:32 18:27
1,195  Max Bontrager 9 18:42 18:30 18:52 18:48 18:34 18:46 18:49 18:27
1,273  Carter Jay 11 18:47 19:20 18:54 18:49 19:19 18:30 18:16 18:52
1,295  Julien Gourgue 11 18:49 18:51 18:54 19:08 18:26 19:19 18:40 18:30
1,301  Jack Lappin 12 18:49 19:03 18:50 18:53 18:40
1,327  Josh Goedde 11 18:52 19:00 18:45 19:04 19:09 18:49 18:47 18:37
1,328  Charlie Stuelpe 11 18:52 19:17 19:00 18:32 18:48 18:51 18:27 19:13
1,405  Nathan Dierckman 11 18:59 20:29 18:49 18:36
1,414  Dhruv Chavan 11 18:59 20:07 19:09 19:07 18:25 18:35
Andrew Cebalo 11 19:02 18:42 19:16 19:47 18:34 19:03
Andrew Lobue 12 19:08 19:12 19:40 19:45 18:36 18:39
Noah Yoon 9 19:08 19:26 19:18 18:53 19:41 18:56 18:45 19:15
Lucas Mallon 9 19:09 19:30 19:28 19:40 18:44 18:41 19:20 18:47
Cohen Levy 9 19:15 19:42 19:03 19:48 19:58 19:07 18:17 19:01
Evan Sanders 12 19:15 19:22 18:48 19:38 18:43 19:46
Nolan Latteral 11 19:21 18:44 20:05
Henry Whitesitt 11 19:22 19:25 19:29 20:00 20:43 19:10 18:16 19:03




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100.0% 2.8 138 22.9 24.8 22.4 16.2 8.4 3.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.5 66 62.0 30.0 6.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 42 91.0 8.5 0.5 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 99.3 0.7 0.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 53.9 30.7 9.4 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 10.7 0.5 2.6 4.0 5.4 6.0 7.2 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.5 6.1 5.1 4.7 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.2 100.0% 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100.0% 33.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 0.0% 97.1%
Connor Mallon 100.0% 64.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0% 74.3%
KJ Sweeney 100.0% 92.2 0.0 0.0% 32.3%
Connor Heagy 100.0% 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 27.6%
Thomas Biltimier 100.0% 98.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 25.6%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 87.7 10.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 4.0 8.1 20.7 20.7 17.0 11.1 7.3 5.0 3.8 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 11.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 6.1 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.3 6.2 6.5 5.9 4.9 4.1 4.0 2.7 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 21.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 3.5 100.0%
KJ Sweeney 100% 33.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 97.8%
Connor Heagy 100% 35.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.1 97.2%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 96.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 88.9 10.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
Charlie Schuman 100% 3.6 9.2 23.5 28.5 18.0 10.4 5.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 8.0 0.2 1.9 6.1 10.9 13.7 16.5 18.1 12.0 8.0 5.4 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.2 6.7 10.9 12.0 12.2 11.2 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.7 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 100.0%
KJ Sweeney 100% 18.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.2 6.6 7.2 8.2 7.8 7.1 7.9 6.5 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.3 3.7 100.0%
Connor Heagy 100% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.9 3.9 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.7 6.3 6.3 5.5 4.5 4.4 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 19.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 6.8 7.4 7.9 7.2 7.5 6.4 6.5 5.4 4.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 1.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Charlie Schuman 2.4 33.9 44.0 12.2 8.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
Charlie Leedke 5.3 0.0 2.8 20.5 18.3 33.6 15.7 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Connor Mallon 7.6 0.1 0.6 3.9 8.4 22.6 23.5 18.8 11.8 6.2 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
KJ Sweeney 10.8 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.9 10.2 16.3 17.3 16.8 12.9 8.7 4.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Connor Heagy 11.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.8 8.7 13.2 16.7 18.1 14.9 11.0 5.6 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Thomas Biltimier 11.6 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.6 11.1 15.5 18.4 17.5 12.5 6.2 2.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1