Northridge
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #21
New Haven Semi-State Rank #4
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #2
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 22nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 2.0%
Advance to State Finals 81.7%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 330 474 364 407 337 450 442 375 344 323
Team Adjusted Rating 407 364 348 337 411 393 347 344 323
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
69  Mariah King 12 19:30 20:50 20:06 19:53 19:44 19:50 19:44 19:42 19:26 19:21
133  Jenna Miller 11 19:54 20:23 19:53 19:30 19:53 21:15 20:42 20:18 19:36 19:46
182  McKenzie Love 12 20:12 19:47 20:06 20:19 20:21 20:34 20:04 19:56 20:20
224  Mackenzie Adams 11 20:25 20:41 20:09 21:30 20:27 20:18 20:28 20:24 20:36 20:34
285  Caitlin Clark 9 20:36 21:01 20:58 20:28 21:05 20:27
514  Hanna Durbin 12 21:24 22:17 21:15 21:18 21:08 21:14 22:25 21:05 21:12 21:58
609  Alison Bache 9 21:41 23:07 22:00 21:31 21:16 21:25 21:27 22:07
670  Molly Campbell 11 21:52 22:01 21:37 21:46 21:31 22:01 22:02 22:07 21:53
809  Jenna Bradberry 10 22:15 21:43 22:22 21:57 22:42 22:22
914  Melissa Bailey 11 22:28 22:45 22:37 22:21 22:18
1,184  Michelle Schwartz 10 23:01 22:51 23:47 22:49 22:57
1,189  Sami Moore 9 23:01 23:28 23:23 22:58 22:28




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 81.7% 18.7 439 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.2 4.5 5.5 6.2 7.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.9 8.1 3.3
Semi-State 100% 5.1 181 0.1 5.3 36.2 25.2 15.0 10.0 7.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.9 51 7.7 91.2 1.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 30 98.6 1.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 89.1% 70.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 40.3% 71.7%
Jenna Miller 82.0% 107.7 1.4% 16.3%
McKenzie Love 81.7% 131.6 0.1% 1.9%
Mackenzie Adams 81.7% 148.6 0.0% 0.2%
Caitlin Clark 81.7% 161.7 0.0% 0.0%
Hanna Durbin 81.7% 194.5 0.0% 0.0%
Alison Bache 81.7% 199.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 100% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.1 100.0%
Jenna Miller 100% 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 100.0%
McKenzie Love 100% 46.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 55.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 63.7 0.0 100.0%
Hanna Durbin 100% 97.3 74.8%
Alison Bache 100% 109.4 38.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 100% 2.2 1.6 43.1 27.7 12.2 7.1 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jenna Miller 100% 5.9 0.0 1.3 8.3 15.0 13.6 12.5 11.3 9.4 7.9 6.0 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
McKenzie Love 100% 10.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.0 6.0 7.6 8.3 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.1 7.4 6.3 5.2 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.4 6.7 7.3 8.6 8.2 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.0 5.4 4.3 3.7 2.9 1.8 1.1 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 18.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.9 5.7 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.8 8.8 9.5 8.1 7.0 6.1 4.1 100.0%
Hanna Durbin 100% 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 3.8 100.0%
Alison Bache 100% 34.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 1.0 80.9 14.0 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jenna Miller 2.5 3.6 33.7 26.4 16.1 9.7 5.6 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
McKenzie Love 5.2 0.1 3.4 10.0 15.8 17.3 16.1 12.9 9.0 6.2 4.1 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mackenzie Adams 7.9 0.2 1.5 4.2 7.1 10.9 13.3 13.9 13.3 11.6 9.0 6.6 4.5 2.7 1.2 0.1
Caitlin Clark 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.2 10.6 12.4 13.4 13.2 12.0 8.7 6.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Hanna Durbin 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 7.3 30.0 21.7 14.0 8.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.4
Alison Bache 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.2 11.6 14.6 13.7 12.2 10.9 8.3 6.6 4.7 3.4