Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#65
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#76
Pace65.5#221
Improvement+0.4#148

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#29
Improvement+0.8#125

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
Improvement-0.4#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.1% n/a n/a
First Round12.0% n/a n/a
Second Round3.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2011 179   Western Illinois W 87-58 86%     1 - 0 +24.9 +18.3 +7.4
  Nov 15, 2011 189   @ Miami (OH) L 67-72 OT 70%     1 - 1 -3.1 -9.9 +7.0
  Nov 19, 2011 236   UNC Wilmington W 74-49 92%     2 - 1 +17.2 +1.2 +17.6
  Nov 24, 2011 195   Wake Forest W 80-76 81%     3 - 1 +2.2 +0.6 +1.4
  Nov 25, 2011 120   Fairfield W 56-49 66%     4 - 1 +10.3 -3.2 +14.6
  Nov 27, 2011 56   Minnesota W 86-70 47%     5 - 1 +24.1 +13.5 +9.8
  Nov 30, 2011 103   Buffalo L 55-84 72%     5 - 2 -27.7 -17.5 -10.2
  Dec 04, 2011 42   @ Murray St. L 58-75 30%     5 - 3 -4.3 -2.4 -3.5
  Dec 07, 2011 32   Alabama W 74-62 50%     6 - 3 +19.4 +19.8 +1.5
  Dec 11, 2011 147   South Carolina Upstate W 72-68 81%     7 - 3 +2.0 +6.9 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2011 231   Florida International W 61-40 91%     8 - 3 +13.8 -2.6 +20.6
  Dec 21, 2011 44   Seton Hall L 64-69 58%     8 - 4 +0.4 -2.0 +2.3
  Dec 23, 2011 280   Illinois-Chicago W 64-57 94%     9 - 4 -3.3 -12.5 +9.4
  Dec 30, 2011 84   Mississippi W 62-50 68%     10 - 4 +14.5 +0.4 +15.7
  Jan 04, 2012 20   Saint Louis W 79-72 OT 41%     11 - 4 1 - 0 +16.7 +3.9 +12.1
  Jan 07, 2012 35   @ Temple W 87-77 26%     12 - 4 2 - 0 +24.0 +11.2 +12.0
  Jan 11, 2012 57   @ St. Bonaventure L 73-81 35%     12 - 5 2 - 1 +3.5 +10.9 -8.1
  Jan 14, 2012 53   La Salle W 79-75 60%     13 - 5 3 - 1 +8.8 +15.2 -6.1
  Jan 21, 2012 61   Xavier W 87-72 62%     14 - 5 4 - 1 +19.3 +17.3 +2.1
  Jan 25, 2012 62   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-77 37%     14 - 6 4 - 2 -3.0 -3.0 -0.8
  Jan 28, 2012 215   Rhode Island L 81-86 89%     14 - 7 4 - 3 -11.2 +3.3 -14.5
  Feb 01, 2012 114   Duquesne L 73-83 75%     14 - 8 4 - 4 -9.7 -1.2 -8.4
  Feb 04, 2012 20   @ Saint Louis L 50-58 19%     14 - 9 4 - 5 +8.5 -10.5 +18.6
  Feb 11, 2012 265   @ Fordham W 72-70 OT 83%     15 - 9 5 - 5 -0.6 +3.1 -3.7
  Feb 15, 2012 151   Charlotte W 75-65 82%     16 - 9 6 - 5 +7.9 +7.5 +0.9
  Feb 18, 2012 61   @ Xavier L 83-86 OT 36%     16 - 10 6 - 6 +8.1 +5.2 +3.3
  Feb 22, 2012 114   @ Duquesne W 74-62 51%     17 - 10 7 - 6 +19.1 +3.9 +15.4
  Feb 25, 2012 78   Massachusetts W 76-43 67%     18 - 10 8 - 6 +36.0 +9.1 +28.3
  Feb 29, 2012 111   @ Richmond L 71-82 50%     18 - 11 8 - 7 -3.5 +6.1 -10.7
  Mar 03, 2012 167   George Washington W 75-59 85%     19 - 11 9 - 7 +12.5 +12.5 +2.5
  Mar 06, 2012 167   George Washington W 67-50 85%     20 - 11 +13.5 -0.7 +15.8
  Mar 09, 2012 61   Xavier L 69-70 49%     20 - 12 +6.7 +5.4 +1.3
Projected Record 20.0 - 12.0 9.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 100.0% 19.9% 19.9% 11.8 0.2 4.9 12.6 2.2 0.0 80.1 19.9%
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.9% 0.0% 19.9% 11.8 0.2 4.9 12.6 2.2 0.0 80.1 19.9%