Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
65 Buffalo 48.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +8.2      +5.9 43 +2.2 103 79.3 16 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 Ball St. 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +3.6      +1.8 114 +1.8 118 73.2 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Toledo 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +2.8      +4.0 74 -1.2 209 70.0 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Eastern Michigan 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 +2.3      -0.1 171 +2.3 101 62.1 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Ohio 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +1.6      +0.2 162 +1.3 127 75.5 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Kent St. 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.4      +0.4 153 0.0 168 70.0 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Miami (OH) 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -0.2      -1.2 203 +1.0 135 66.3 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Akron 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1.0      -0.4 177 -0.7 191 68.2 200 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 Northern Illinois 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -1.2      +0.3 158 -1.5 226 66.9 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 Bowling Green 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -2.6      -1.3 206 -1.3 218 73.9 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Western Michigan 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -3.0      -0.8 191 -2.2 255 68.6 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Central Michigan 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 -3.4      +0.6 146 -4.0 299 67.0 229 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 2.5 46.4 20.0 10.9 7.1 5.0 3.6 2.6 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2
Ball St. 4.4 16.8 17.2 13.7 11.5 9.5 8.3 6.6 5.2 4.0 3.4 2.3 1.4
Toledo 5.0 12.7 13.7 12.8 11.1 10.8 9.0 7.2 6.7 5.7 4.6 3.4 2.4
Eastern Michigan 5.3 11.1 12.1 11.8 11.1 10.2 9.3 8.6 7.5 6.5 4.8 4.0 3.0
Ohio 5.6 9.3 10.6 11.3 10.9 10.0 9.7 8.9 8.0 6.9 6.0 5.0 3.4
Kent St. 6.2 6.4 8.2 9.5 10.0 9.9 10.4 8.9 8.9 8.7 7.8 6.3 5.0
Miami (OH) 6.8 4.7 6.9 8.3 8.6 8.5 9.9 9.8 9.2 9.4 9.5 8.4 6.9
Akron 6.8 4.3 6.5 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.2 9.8 8.4 7.3
Northern Illinois 7.0 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.1 8.7
Bowling Green 7.8 2.5 4.1 5.7 6.2 7.2 8.5 9.0 9.8 10.2 11.8 12.9 12.3
Western Michigan 8.0 2.0 3.7 5.2 6.0 6.5 7.5 9.0 9.6 10.9 12.6 12.9 13.9
Central Michigan 8.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 5.7 6.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.6 12.2 13.5 15.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Buffalo 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.6 8.0 10.1 13.1 14.0 14.7 12.0 8.2 3.7
Ball St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.7 7.8 9.7 10.5 11.8 12.0 10.5 9.3 6.6 4.4 2.1 0.5
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.1 7.8 9.0 10.1 11.9 11.2 10.7 9.0 7.2 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.4
Eastern Michigan 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.8 8.5 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.1 10.1 8.1 6.7 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2
Ohio 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.4 5.2 6.7 9.0 10.4 11.0 11.6 10.8 9.2 7.3 5.5 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.2
Kent St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 4.3 6.8 8.6 9.9 11.1 11.6 10.9 9.5 8.0 5.8 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
Miami (OH) 8 - 10 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.8 6.2 7.9 10.1 11.0 10.9 11.4 9.7 8.3 6.6 4.9 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Akron 8 - 10 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.8 6.1 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.5 10.6 10.2 8.3 6.8 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Northern Illinois 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.9 6.9 8.6 9.6 11.1 11.5 10.3 9.4 8.1 6.0 4.0 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1
Bowling Green 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 4.1 6.6 8.8 10.9 11.3 11.2 10.8 9.6 8.1 5.7 4.5 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.7 2.3 4.6 7.6 9.1 11.3 11.9 11.1 10.4 9.5 7.0 5.3 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 4.7 8.0 9.7 11.3 11.6 11.1 10.2 9.7 7.3 5.1 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 46.4% 35.4 8.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 16.8% 11.0 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 12.7% 8.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 11.1% 7.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 9.3% 5.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 6.4% 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 4.7% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 4.3% 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 4.4% 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.5% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
Western Michigan 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 48.6% 35.3% 13.3% 11   0.4 0.9 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.4 2.8 2.6 3.3 5.1 8.9 8.0 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 51.4 20.5%
Ball St. 16.7% 13.4% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 83.3 3.9%
Toledo 14.0% 10.7% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 86.0 3.7%
Eastern Michigan 11.9% 9.6% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.7 88.1 2.5%
Ohio 9.7% 7.6% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 90.3 2.3%
Kent St. 6.1% 5.2% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 93.9 1.0%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 4.8% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 94.4 0.9%
Akron 4.4% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 95.6 0.6%
Northern Illinois 4.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 95.6 0.7%
Bowling Green 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 97.6 0.2%
Western Michigan 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 98.1 0.1%
Central Michigan 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 98.0 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Buffalo 48.6% 4.3% 46.2% 19.5% 7.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Ball St. 16.7% 1.7% 15.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 14.0% 1.7% 13.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 11.9% 1.5% 11.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 9.7% 1.2% 9.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 6.1% 0.8% 5.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.6% 0.6% 5.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 4.4% 0.6% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 4.4% 0.6% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 2.4% 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 74.6 23.1 2.3 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.2 0.9 78.7 19.0 1.4 0.0
2nd Round 34.2% 0.4 65.8 31.9 2.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 11.8% 0.1 88.2 11.6 0.1
Elite Eight 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5 0.0
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2