Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#154
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 16.9% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 5.0% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.2 12.5
.500 or above 76.5% 84.0% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 75.1% 58.7%
Conference Champion 12.7% 14.9% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.0% 7.0%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 1.0%
First Round13.3% 16.0% 7.8%
Second Round3.4% 4.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.80.1 - 0.8
Quad 1b0.3 - 1.10.4 - 1.9
Quad 21.7 - 3.22.2 - 5.1
Quad 36.3 - 5.08.5 - 10.1
Quad 49.5 - 2.018.0 - 12.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 245   @ Oakland W 80-72 67%    
  Nov 14, 2018 138   @ Wright St. W 73-72 42%    
  Nov 19, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-76 64%    
  Nov 20, 2018 100   Louisiana L 78-79 45%    
  Nov 21, 2018 90   UC Irvine L 71-74 40%    
  Nov 28, 2018 340   North Alabama W 80-64 95%    
  Dec 01, 2018 281   Cleveland St. W 78-69 85%    
  Dec 05, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 89-74 94%    
  Dec 08, 2018 99   @ Marshall L 83-85 34%    
  Dec 15, 2018 157   Middle Tennessee W 72-70 68%    
  Dec 19, 2018 248   Cornell W 82-74 82%    
  Dec 29, 2018 125   Penn L 74-75 60%    
  Jan 04, 2019 111   Ball St. L 77-78 57%    
  Jan 08, 2019 65   @ Buffalo L 80-85 23%    
  Jan 12, 2019 211   @ Western Michigan W 78-72 59%    
  Jan 15, 2019 170   Miami (OH) W 74-71 70%    
  Jan 18, 2019 142   Ohio W 78-77 64%    
  Jan 22, 2019 159   @ Kent St. W 77-75 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 219   Central Michigan W 79-73 77%    
  Jan 29, 2019 170   @ Miami (OH) W 74-71 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 186   @ Northern Illinois W 77-73 53%    
  Feb 05, 2019 184   Akron W 77-73 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 205   @ Bowling Green W 80-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2019 65   Buffalo L 80-85 42%    
  Feb 19, 2019 135   @ Eastern Michigan W 70-69 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 186   Northern Illinois W 77-73 71%    
  Feb 26, 2019 111   @ Ball St. L 77-78 37%    
  Mar 02, 2019 219   @ Central Michigan W 79-73 59%    
  Mar 05, 2019 211   Western Michigan W 78-72 77%    
  Mar 08, 2019 135   Eastern Michigan W 70-69 61%    
Projected Record 18.0 - 12.0 10.2 - 7.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.6 3.8 1.3 0.2 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.2 2.0 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.1 7.8 9.0 10.1 11.9 11.2 10.7 9.0 7.2 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 92.9% 2.5    2.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.8% 3.8    2.6 1.0 0.2
14-4 40.4% 2.9    1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 8.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 96.2% 58.6% 37.6% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.8%
17-1 1.2% 89.2% 54.4% 34.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 76.4%
16-2 2.6% 70.8% 43.1% 27.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 48.7%
15-3 5.1% 50.6% 29.7% 20.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 29.8%
14-4 7.2% 32.9% 24.9% 8.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 10.7%
13-5 9.0% 21.2% 17.3% 3.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 4.7%
12-6 10.7% 12.3% 12.1% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.2%
11-7 11.2% 8.4% 8.4% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.3
10-8 11.9% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.3 0.0%
9-9 10.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.7
8-10 9.0% 3.4% 3.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.7
7-11 7.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 5.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
5-13 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 10.7% 3.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 86.0 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 15.4 2.3 49.1 33.1