Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.3#16
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.6% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 5.2% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.6% 51.6% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.5% 23.1% 9.0%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 10.9
.500 or above 91.8% 94.2% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 94.8% 86.8%
Conference Champion 46.4% 48.8% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four4.3% 4.5% 2.9%
First Round46.2% 49.1% 30.7%
Second Round19.5% 21.3% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 7.9% 3.7%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.0% 1.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 1.60.3 - 1.6
Quad 1b0.7 - 1.40.9 - 3.0
Quad 22.9 - 2.53.8 - 5.5
Quad 38.4 - 2.912.2 - 8.4
Quad 48.5 - 0.920.8 - 9.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 160   St. Francis (PA) W 85-77 84%    
  Nov 09, 2018 11   @ West Virginia L 77-84 18%    
  Nov 12, 2018 104   @ Southern Illinois W 78-74 54%    
  Nov 21, 2018 276   Dartmouth W 84-70 94%    
  Nov 24, 2018 274   Marist W 89-75 94%    
  Nov 30, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-67 89%    
  Dec 01, 2018 137   San Francisco W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 08, 2018 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 82-77 57%    
  Dec 15, 2018 104   Southern Illinois W 78-74 72%    
  Dec 18, 2018 12   @ Syracuse L 69-76 19%    
  Dec 21, 2018 24   @ Marquette L 82-86 26%    
  Dec 29, 2018 162   @ Canisius W 84-76 66%    
  Jan 04, 2019 135   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-70 59%    
  Jan 08, 2019 126   Toledo W 85-80 77%    
  Jan 12, 2019 170   Miami (OH) W 80-72 83%    
  Jan 15, 2019 211   @ Western Michigan W 85-74 76%    
  Jan 18, 2019 135   Eastern Michigan W 76-70 79%    
  Jan 22, 2019 186   @ Northern Illinois W 83-74 71%    
  Jan 25, 2019 159   @ Kent St. W 83-75 65%    
  Jan 29, 2019 111   Ball St. W 84-79 73%    
  Feb 02, 2019 205   @ Bowling Green W 87-76 74%    
  Feb 09, 2019 219   Central Michigan W 86-74 89%    
  Feb 12, 2019 184   @ Akron W 83-74 69%    
  Feb 15, 2019 126   @ Toledo W 85-80 58%    
  Feb 19, 2019 142   Ohio W 85-78 79%    
  Feb 22, 2019 159   Kent St. W 83-75 82%    
  Feb 26, 2019 184   Akron W 83-74 84%    
  Mar 01, 2019 170   @ Miami (OH) W 80-72 68%    
  Mar 05, 2019 142   @ Ohio W 85-78 61%    
  Mar 08, 2019 205   Bowling Green W 87-76 88%    
Projected Record 20.8 - 9.2 13.3 - 4.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.2 7.4 11.6 11.6 8.1 3.7 46.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.5 6.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.6 8.0 10.1 13.1 14.0 14.7 12.0 8.2 3.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.7    3.7
17-1 99.8% 8.1    7.9 0.2
16-2 96.3% 11.6    10.2 1.3 0.0
15-3 79.1% 11.6    8.5 2.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.0% 7.4    3.9 2.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 24.3% 3.2    1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.4% 46.4 35.4 8.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.7% 98.4% 70.1% 28.2% 4.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.5%
17-1 8.2% 91.7% 61.7% 30.0% 6.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 78.3%
16-2 12.0% 83.1% 57.7% 25.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 60.0%
15-3 14.7% 67.6% 45.8% 21.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 40.1%
14-4 14.0% 51.4% 36.3% 15.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 23.7%
13-5 13.1% 36.0% 27.6% 8.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.4 11.6%
12-6 10.1% 27.0% 24.6% 2.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.4 3.1%
11-7 8.0% 19.2% 18.5% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.4 0.9%
10-8 5.6% 12.5% 12.0% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.9 0.6%
9-9 4.2% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 0.0%
8-10 2.9% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 48.6% 35.3% 13.3% 9.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.4 2.8 2.6 3.3 5.1 8.9 8.0 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 51.4 20.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 39.1 51.2 9.3 0.3