IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Western Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.6	#204
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#316
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#270

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#140

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.6%	14.9%	6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	13.5	14.6

.500 or above	47.4%	79.9%	45.7%
.500 or above in Conference	65.5%	83.6%	64.5%
Conference Champion	8.0%	17.3%	7.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.5%	0.3%	2.6%

First Four	1.2%	1.5%	1.2%
First Round	6.0%	14.0%	5.6%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.8	0.0 - 1.8
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.4	0.2 - 3.2
Quad 2	0.6 - 2.6	0.8 - 5.8
Quad 3	3.1 - 4.6	3.8 - 10.4
Quad 4	9.4 - 3.4	13.2 - 13.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2018	28	@ TCU	L	63-77	5%
Nov 15, 2018	219	Central Michigan	W	69-68	53%
Nov 17, 2018	321	San Jose St.	W	67-60	75%
Nov 18, 2018	147	Weber St.	L	65-69	36%
Nov 25, 2018	58	@ USC	L	62-73	10%
Dec 01, 2018	134	@ South Dakota	L	65-70	24%
Dec 08, 2018	262	@ Idaho	W	65-62	51%
Dec 13, 2018	227	Lamar	W	66-65	64%
Dec 18, 2018	317	Cal Poly	W	69-62	79%
Dec 20, 2018	246	@ Portland St.	W	74-72	48%
Dec 31, 2018	5	@ Gonzaga	L	59-80	2%
Jan 03, 2019	244	Seattle	W	67-65	66%
Jan 05, 2019	152	Utah Valley	L	65-68	49%
Jan 10, 2019	311	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-69	60%
Jan 12, 2019	93	@ New Mexico St.	L	61-69	18%
Jan 17, 2019	279	UMKC	W	70-66	71%
Jan 19, 2019	350	Chicago St.	W	77-63	92%
Jan 24, 2019	288	@ California Baptist	W	69-65	55%
Feb 02, 2019	114	Grand Canyon	L	63-69	40%
Feb 07, 2019	93	New Mexico St.	L	61-69	35%
Feb 09, 2019	311	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-69	77%
Feb 14, 2019	350	@ Chicago St.	W	77-63	82%
Feb 16, 2019	279	@ UMKC	W	70-66	52%
Feb 23, 2019	288	California Baptist	W	69-65	73%
Mar 02, 2019	114	@ Grand Canyon	L	63-69	24%
Mar 07, 2019	244	@ Seattle	W	67-65	47%
Mar 09, 2019	152	@ Utah Valley	L	65-68	30%
Projected Record						13.2 - 13.8	8.7 - 7.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	1.5	2.6	2.4	0.9	0.2		8.0	1st
2nd										0.2	1.3	4.2	4.6	2.6	0.3				13.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.5	2.8	6.7	5.2	1.8	0.0					17.0	3rd
4th							0.1	1.1	4.3	7.1	4.5	0.9	0.0						18.0	4th
5th						0.1	1.6	5.1	6.1	2.7	0.3								15.9	5th
6th					0.1	1.5	5.1	4.8	1.2	0.1									12.8	6th
7th			0.0	0.2	1.5	3.6	2.6	0.6	0.0										8.7	7th
8th		0.0	0.4	1.2	2.2	1.0	0.3	0.0											5.1	8th
9th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0													1.2	9th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	4.0	6.2	9.7	11.7	12.2	12.8	12.8	10.6	7.9	5.3	2.7	0.9	0.2			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
15-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
14-2	87.5%	2.4		1.8	0.6	0.0
13-3	49.5%	2.6		1.3	1.1	0.2	0.0
12-4	19.3%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1
11-5	3.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	8.0%	8.0		4.7	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		79.5%	78.5%	1.0%	12.8						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0		4.5%
15-1	0.9%		51.4%	49.7%	1.7%	12.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5		3.4%
14-2	2.7%		38.3%	37.7%	0.6%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.7		0.9%
13-3	5.3%		21.2%	21.2%	0.0%	14.1												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	4.2		0.0%
12-4	7.9%		13.3%	13.3%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	6.9
11-5	10.6%		10.3%	10.3%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	9.6
10-6	12.8%		5.3%	5.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	12.1
9-7	12.8%		4.1%	4.1%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	12.3
8-8	12.2%		2.3%	2.3%		15.9																0.0	0.2	11.9
7-9	11.7%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.5
6-10	9.7%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	9.6
5-11	6.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
4-12	4.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
3-13	2.0%																							2.0
2-14	0.8%																							0.8
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		6.6%	6.6%	0.0%	14.5						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.4	1.6	2.1	93.4		0.0%