Preseason Rankings
TCU
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#143
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.4% 3.6% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 8.1% 20.4% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 19.6% 20.4% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 31.9% 20.4% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.8% 61.3% 30.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.3% 57.9% 27.2%
Average Seed 6.2 6.1 7.6
.500 or above 80.8% 82.3% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 53.3% 54.6% 28.9%
Conference Champion 7.3% 7.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 9.0% 19.2%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 2.1%
First Round58.2% 59.7% 29.1%
Second Round38.6% 39.7% 17.5%
Sweet Sixteen18.8% 19.4% 6.8%
Elite Eight8.6% 8.9% 2.7%
Final Four3.9% 4.1% 0.9%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.8%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.8%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.9 - 5.31.9 - 5.3
Quad 1b2.5 - 2.74.4 - 8.0
Quad 24.7 - 2.59.1 - 10.4
Quad 35.2 - 1.014.3 - 11.4
Quad 45.0 - 0.219.4 - 11.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-63 95%    
  Nov 11, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 82-64 98%    
  Nov 15, 2018 91   Fresno St. W 77-70 81%    
  Nov 20, 2018 136   Lipscomb W 88-78 87%    
  Nov 26, 2018 135   Eastern Michigan W 75-65 87%    
  Nov 30, 2018 219   Central Michigan W 84-69 94%    
  Dec 05, 2018 56   @ SMU W 72-69 49%    
  Dec 07, 2018 58   USC W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 16, 2018 161   Indiana St. W 81-69 90%    
  Dec 23, 2018 301   Charlotte W 89-69 95%    
  Dec 23, 2018 171   Bucknell W 84-72 85%    
  Dec 25, 2018 161   Indiana St. W 81-69 84%    
  Jan 05, 2019 48   Baylor W 74-72 67%    
  Jan 09, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 73-81 18%    
  Jan 12, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 86-83 49%    
  Jan 15, 2019 11   West Virginia L 75-78 49%    
  Jan 19, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 70-73 33%    
  Jan 23, 2019 26   Texas L 71-72 59%    
  Jan 26, 2019 16   Florida L 73-75 53%    
  Jan 28, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech W 73-72 41%    
  Feb 02, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 74-72 47%    
  Feb 06, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 78-73 74%    
  Feb 09, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 78-77 41%    
  Feb 11, 2019 1   Kansas L 73-81 35%    
  Feb 16, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 86-83 68%    
  Feb 18, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-73 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 78-77 61%    
  Feb 26, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 75-78 30%    
  Mar 02, 2019 29   Texas Tech W 73-72 61%    
  Mar 04, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 70-73 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 26   @ Texas L 71-72 39%    
Projected Record 19.4 - 11.6 8.8 - 9.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.0 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.8 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 9.3 10.2 10.7 11.9 10.9 9.2 7.3 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.2% 1.1    1.0 0.2
15-3 74.1% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 47.7% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.5% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.6 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.6% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.4 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.3% 99.4% 12.2% 87.2% 4.5 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
11-7 9.2% 97.7% 8.1% 89.5% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.5%
10-8 10.9% 93.3% 7.7% 85.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.7%
9-9 11.9% 82.5% 7.2% 75.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 81.2%
8-10 10.7% 57.1% 5.1% 52.0% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.6 54.8%
7-11 10.2% 23.7% 4.2% 19.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.8 20.3%
6-12 9.3% 8.2% 2.3% 5.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 6.0%
5-13 6.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0%
4-14 4.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0%
3-15 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.7
1-17 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 59.8% 7.8% 52.0% 6.2 3.4 4.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.5 5.6 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.2 56.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9