IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
USC
Pac-12
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.9	#58
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#208
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.9	#44

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.9	#85

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.5%	5.0%	0.7%
Top 4 Seed	4.8%	5.0%	0.7%
Top 6 Seed	9.6%	5.0%	0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.4%	37.8%	15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	29.7%	31.1%	10.4%
Average Seed	8.4	8.4	10.0

.500 or above	82.4%	84.3%	56.2%
.500 or above in Conference	72.6%	74.0%	53.0%
Conference Champion	11.8%	12.3%	4.0%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	1.8%	7.0%

First Four	6.2%	6.4%	3.6%
First Round	33.0%	34.4%	13.9%
Second Round	17.3%	18.2%	4.7%
Sweet Sixteen	7.0%	7.4%	1.2%
Elite Eight	2.7%	2.9%	0.4%
Final Four	1.1%	1.1%	0.4%
Championship Game	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.7 - 2.7	0.7 - 2.7
Quad 1b	1.3 - 2.4	2.0 - 5.1
Quad 2	3.6 - 3.3	5.6 - 8.4
Quad 3	6.5 - 2.3	12.1 - 10.7
Quad 4	7.6 - 0.6	19.7 - 11.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	233	Robert Morris	W	77-64	93%
Nov 11, 2018	83	Vanderbilt	W	74-71	70%
Nov 14, 2018	337	Stetson	W	85-64	99%
Nov 19, 2018	29	Texas Tech	L	69-72	41%
Nov 20, 2018	190	Missouri St.	W	75-65	82%
Nov 25, 2018	204	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	73-62	90%
Nov 28, 2018	189	Long Beach St.	W	82-72	88%
Dec 01, 2018	7	Nevada	L	74-82	34%
Dec 07, 2018	28	TCU	L	74-77	40%
Dec 15, 2018	53	@ Oklahoma	L	81-82	40%
Dec 18, 2018	217	@ Santa Clara	W	75-63	78%
Dec 21, 2018	295	Southern Utah	W	85-69	95%
Dec 30, 2018	131	UC Davis	W	73-67	78%
Jan 03, 2019	198	California	W	77-66	89%
Jan 06, 2019	108	Stanford	W	77-72	76%
Jan 10, 2019	82	@ Oregon St.	W	72-69	49%
Jan 13, 2019	17	@ Oregon	L	70-75	27%
Jan 19, 2019	50	UCLA	L	77-78	57%
Jan 24, 2019	66	Arizona	W	74-73	62%
Jan 26, 2019	43	Arizona St.	L	78-79	56%
Jan 30, 2019	42	@ Washington	L	74-75	36%
Feb 02, 2019	191	@ Washington St.	W	80-70	73%
Feb 06, 2019	87	Utah	W	71-68	69%
Feb 09, 2019	84	Colorado	W	73-70	69%
Feb 13, 2019	108	@ Stanford	W	77-72	57%
Feb 16, 2019	198	@ California	W	77-66	75%
Feb 21, 2019	17	Oregon	L	70-75	45%
Feb 23, 2019	82	Oregon St.	W	72-69	69%
Feb 28, 2019	50	@ UCLA	L	77-78	38%
Mar 07, 2019	87	@ Utah	W	71-68	50%
Mar 09, 2019	84	@ Colorado	W	73-70	49%
Projected Record						19.7 - 11.3	10.4 - 7.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.2	2.5	3.9	2.6	1.1	0.4		11.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.4	5.0	3.9	1.5	0.4	0.0			13.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.6	5.2	3.7	0.8	0.0					12.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.3	5.2	3.0	0.8	0.0						11.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.2	5.1	2.8	0.5	0.0							10.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.6	4.6	3.1	0.5	0.0								9.9	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	4.2	2.8	0.5	0.1									8.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	1.0	3.0	2.4	0.6	0.0										7.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.8	2.1	2.2	0.5	0.0											5.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.4	0.4	0.0												4.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0													2.5	11th
12th	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0														1.0	12th

Total	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.9	3.1	4.9	6.9	9.1	10.5	11.5	11.5	11.2	10.8	7.3	5.4	3.0	1.1	0.4			Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	97.7%	1.1		1.1	0.0
16-2	86.1%	2.6		2.2	0.4	0.0
15-3	72.0%	3.9		2.4	1.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	34.1%	2.5		1.0	1.2	0.3	0.0
13-5	11.3%	1.2		0.1	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.8%	11.8		7.1	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		100.0%	52.2%	47.8%	1.9		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-1	1.1%		100.0%	37.2%	62.8%	3.0		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0									100.0%
16-2	3.0%		96.8%	25.2%	71.7%	4.5		0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		95.7%
15-3	5.4%		93.9%	20.5%	73.3%	6.1		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0					0.3		92.3%
14-4	7.3%		86.6%	19.9%	66.7%	7.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0				1.0		83.3%
13-5	10.8%		71.2%	14.1%	57.2%	9.1				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0			3.1		66.5%
12-6	11.2%		52.1%	11.7%	40.3%	10.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.2	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0			5.4		45.7%
11-7	11.5%		32.0%	8.4%	23.7%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0		7.8		25.8%
10-8	11.5%		15.3%	4.8%	10.5%	11.2									0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7		11.0%
9-9	10.5%		9.0%	6.0%	3.0%	12.2											0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.5		3.2%
8-10	9.1%		4.1%	3.5%	0.6%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	8.7		0.6%
7-11	6.9%		2.5%	2.5%		13.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.8
6-12	4.9%		1.3%	1.3%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8
5-13	3.1%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0
4-14	1.9%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	1.9
3-15	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
2-16	0.4%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		36.4%	9.5%	26.8%	8.4		0.5	1.0	1.5	1.8	2.3	2.6	3.0	3.4	4.2	5.1	6.5	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.1	63.6		29.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.4	79.2	2.7	18.1