Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#271
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.1#39
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#273
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.9% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 17.6% 29.7% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.0% 39.6% 22.3%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.7% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 25.0% 17.1% 29.9%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round1.8% 3.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.60.0 - 1.6
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.80.0 - 2.5
Quad 20.2 - 2.00.2 - 4.5
Quad 31.7 - 5.61.9 - 10.1
Quad 46.9 - 6.28.8 - 16.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-71 39%    
  Nov 14, 2018 3   @ Kentucky L 65-89 1%    
  Nov 24, 2018 152   @ Utah Valley L 71-78 19%    
  Nov 27, 2018 251   @ Montana St. L 77-78 38%    
  Dec 01, 2018 262   Idaho L 71-72 60%    
  Dec 05, 2018 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-79 49%    
  Dec 09, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-71 59%    
  Dec 18, 2018 24   @ Marquette L 71-90 3%    
  Dec 22, 2018 116   @ Northern Iowa L 63-72 15%    
  Dec 29, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-84 41%    
  Jan 03, 2019 283   @ Oral Roberts W 74-73 41%    
  Jan 05, 2019 200   @ Denver L 71-75 29%    
  Jan 10, 2019 253   Nebraska Omaha L 78-79 57%    
  Jan 12, 2019 270   Western Illinois L 73-74 59%    
  Jan 16, 2019 79   South Dakota St. L 74-86 22%    
  Jan 19, 2019 199   @ North Dakota St. L 71-75 29%    
  Jan 23, 2019 134   South Dakota L 72-80 32%    
  Feb 01, 2019 270   @ Western Illinois L 73-74 41%    
  Feb 03, 2019 253   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-79 38%    
  Feb 06, 2019 199   North Dakota St. L 71-75 47%    
  Feb 09, 2019 79   @ South Dakota St. L 74-86 10%    
  Feb 16, 2019 283   Oral Roberts W 74-73 62%    
  Feb 23, 2019 200   Denver L 71-75 47%    
  Feb 28, 2019 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-84 23%    
  Mar 02, 2019 134   @ South Dakota L 72-80 18%    
Projected Record 8.8 - 16.2 6.0 - 10.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.0 1.0 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.5 4.5 0.8 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 6.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 1.2 3.1 5.0 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 16.6 9th
Total 1.2 3.2 6.4 9.9 12.5 13.1 12.7 11.9 9.4 7.6 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 89.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
13-3 58.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
12-4 34.3% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 12.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 96.7% 93.3% 3.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
15-1 0.1% 40.1% 39.8% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6%
14-2 0.4% 32.0% 32.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 0.9% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-4 1.9% 15.1% 15.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-5 3.4% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0
10-6 5.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.8
9-7 7.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
8-8 9.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-9 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
6-10 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.7
5-11 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.0
4-12 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
3-13 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.9
2-14 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
1-15 3.2% 3.2
0-16 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%