Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.4% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 24.2% 8.6%
Top 4 Seed 23.6% 24.2% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 37.5% 24.2% 8.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.5% 68.7% 38.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.5% 63.7% 34.3%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.3
.500 or above 86.1% 87.2% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 71.6% 44.7%
Conference Champion 17.1% 17.5% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.2% 15.7%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 1.9%
First Round66.1% 67.2% 37.4%
Second Round44.2% 45.0% 23.2%
Sweet Sixteen22.1% 22.7% 8.1%
Elite Eight11.0% 11.2% 4.0%
Final Four5.1% 5.2% 2.0%
Championship Game2.4% 2.4% 0.5%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.7 - 4.31.7 - 4.3
Quad 1b2.7 - 2.94.4 - 7.2
Quad 25.3 - 2.69.7 - 9.8
Quad 33.9 - 0.713.7 - 10.5
Quad 46.7 - 0.120.3 - 10.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 214   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 84-68 96%    
  Nov 10, 2018 299   Bethune-Cookman W 96-76 98%    
  Nov 14, 2018 25   @ Indiana W 77-76 39%    
  Nov 17, 2018 319   Presbyterian W 84-62 99%    
  Nov 21, 2018 1   Kansas L 76-83 26%    
  Nov 23, 2018 54   Louisville W 81-77 62%    
  Nov 27, 2018 232   Charleston Southern W 83-66 96%    
  Dec 01, 2018 14   Kansas St. L 73-75 54%    
  Dec 04, 2018 249   UTEP W 84-66 96%    
  Dec 08, 2018 22   Wisconsin L 71-72 58%    
  Dec 18, 2018 271   North Dakota W 90-71 97%    
  Dec 21, 2018 65   Buffalo W 86-82 74%    
  Dec 28, 2018 343   Southern W 88-61 99.5%   
  Jan 01, 2019 31   @ St. John's W 80-79 44%    
  Jan 06, 2019 44   Xavier W 82-79 68%    
  Jan 09, 2019 41   @ Creighton W 82-80 48%    
  Jan 12, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 81-78 70%    
  Jan 15, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 83-78 56%    
  Jan 20, 2019 47   Providence W 77-74 69%    
  Jan 23, 2019 89   DePaul W 81-74 81%    
  Jan 26, 2019 44   @ Xavier W 82-79 48%    
  Jan 30, 2019 33   @ Butler W 78-76 45%    
  Feb 05, 2019 31   St. John's W 80-79 64%    
  Feb 09, 2019 8   Villanova L 77-81 47%    
  Feb 12, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 81-74 64%    
  Feb 20, 2019 33   Butler W 78-76 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 47   @ Providence W 77-74 50%    
  Feb 27, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 77-81 28%    
  Mar 03, 2019 41   Creighton W 82-80 67%    
  Mar 06, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 81-78 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 69   Georgetown W 83-78 73%    
Projected Record 20.3 - 10.7 10.4 - 7.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.9 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 17.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.0 5.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.3 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.0 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.2 11.1 9.3 7.6 5.3 3.3 1.5 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 95.2% 3.1    2.8 0.3
15-3 81.3% 4.3    3.1 1.2 0.0
14-4 52.2% 3.9    2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 29.2% 2.7    0.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
12-6 8.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 11.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 61.1% 38.9% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 2.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.6% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 3.6 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.3% 99.5% 21.2% 78.3% 4.7 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 11.1% 97.7% 15.0% 82.7% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.3%
11-7 11.2% 91.2% 10.5% 80.7% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 90.2%
10-8 10.9% 79.7% 10.6% 69.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 77.3%
9-9 9.9% 61.1% 7.7% 53.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 57.9%
8-10 9.4% 32.3% 6.7% 25.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 27.5%
7-11 7.0% 13.6% 4.7% 8.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 9.3%
6-12 5.3% 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.9%
5-13 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.6 0.0%
4-14 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.5% 13.4% 54.1% 6.0 4.3 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.3 6.5 5.4 5.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 32.5 62.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.3 13.7