Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.0% 12.8% 5.2%
#1 Seed 29.2% 38.2% 20.4%
Top 2 Seed 48.7% 81.4% 61.6%
Top 4 Seed 71.4% 81.4% 61.6%
Top 6 Seed 83.3% 81.4% 61.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 97.8% 91.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.6% 97.0% 88.6%
Average Seed 3.2 2.7 3.8
.500 or above 97.8% 99.3% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 96.0% 91.2%
Conference Champion 35.9% 42.1% 29.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.9% 0.3% 1.4%
First Round94.0% 97.6% 90.5%
Second Round80.6% 87.3% 74.1%
Sweet Sixteen56.4% 63.9% 49.0%
Elite Eight36.3% 42.8% 29.9%
Final Four22.4% 27.2% 17.8%
Championship Game12.7% 16.0% 9.4%
National Champion7.0% 9.3% 4.8%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4.3 - 4.54.3 - 4.5
Quad 1b3.6 - 1.37.9 - 5.8
Quad 25.5 - 1.013.4 - 6.8
Quad 35.0 - 0.318.4 - 7.1
Quad 45.4 - 0.123.8 - 7.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 4   Duke W 80-79 49%    
  Nov 09, 2018 104   Southern Illinois W 79-65 94%    
  Nov 14, 2018 271   North Dakota W 89-65 99%    
  Nov 18, 2018 310   VMI W 87-60 99.7%   
  Nov 21, 2018 194   Winthrop W 89-69 98%    
  Nov 23, 2018 259   Tennessee St. W 80-56 99%    
  Nov 28, 2018 183   Monmouth W 85-66 98%    
  Dec 01, 2018 86   UNC Greensboro W 76-63 92%    
  Dec 08, 2018 52   Seton Hall W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 15, 2018 87   Utah W 78-65 91%    
  Dec 22, 2018 6   North Carolina W 81-80 52%    
  Dec 29, 2018 54   @ Louisville W 81-72 70%    
  Jan 05, 2019 39   @ Alabama W 78-70 67%    
  Jan 08, 2019 64   Texas A&M W 80-70 87%    
  Jan 12, 2019 83   Vanderbilt W 80-68 90%    
  Jan 15, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 74-62 78%    
  Jan 19, 2019 13   @ Auburn W 83-79 53%    
  Jan 22, 2019 21   Mississippi St. W 76-71 76%    
  Jan 26, 2019 1   Kansas L 76-77 55%    
  Jan 29, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 80-68 78%    
  Feb 02, 2019 16   @ Florida W 75-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2019 61   South Carolina W 78-68 85%    
  Feb 09, 2019 21   @ Mississippi St. W 76-71 57%    
  Feb 12, 2019 46   LSU W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 16, 2019 9   Tennessee W 73-71 67%    
  Feb 19, 2019 51   @ Missouri W 76-67 68%    
  Feb 23, 2019 13   Auburn W 83-79 71%    
  Feb 26, 2019 94   Arkansas W 84-71 91%    
  Mar 02, 2019 9   @ Tennessee W 73-71 47%    
  Mar 05, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 85-70 84%    
  Mar 09, 2019 16   Florida W 75-71 73%    
Projected Record 23.8 - 7.2 13.1 - 4.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 8.8 10.2 7.3 2.9 35.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.1 7.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 4.5 5.1 1.5 0.2 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.2 1.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.0 6.4 9.5 11.7 13.4 13.7 12.8 11.0 7.3 2.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 99.8% 7.3    7.1 0.2
16-2 93.0% 10.2    8.5 1.8 0.0
15-3 68.7% 8.8    4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 36.4% 5.0    1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.6% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 25.6 8.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.1 2.6 0.2 100.0%
17-1 7.3% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.2 6.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.0% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.3 8.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.8% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.6 6.5 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.7% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.1 4.0 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 99.9% 19.1% 80.8% 2.9 1.6 3.7 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.7% 99.9% 17.7% 82.2% 4.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 9.5% 98.9% 12.8% 86.1% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-8 6.4% 93.3% 10.7% 82.6% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 92.4%
9-9 5.0% 82.8% 6.4% 76.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 81.6%
8-10 2.9% 56.2% 6.3% 49.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 53.2%
7-11 1.8% 26.3% 4.0% 22.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 23.2%
6-12 1.0% 8.2% 3.2% 5.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.2%
5-13 0.4% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1%
4-14 0.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.4% 23.9% 70.5% 3.2 29.2 19.5 13.5 9.2 6.8 5.1 3.7 2.9 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 92.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4