IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Purdue Fort Wayne
Summit League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.2	#169
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.2	#17
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#135

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.2	#210

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.2%	22.2%	10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.5	14.5

.500 or above	70.0%	89.1%	67.5%
.500 or above in Conference	71.4%	85.2%	69.6%
Conference Champion	13.5%	22.5%	12.3%
Last Place in Conference	5.0%	1.7%	5.4%

First Four	1.6%	1.5%	1.6%
First Round	11.5%	21.6%	10.2%
Second Round	1.4%	4.6%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	1.4%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 11.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.1	0.2 - 1.8
Quad 2	0.6 - 2.3	0.8 - 4.1
Quad 3	3.2 - 4.3	4.0 - 8.4
Quad 4	11.7 - 3.9	15.7 - 12.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	50	@ UCLA	L	78-88	12%
Nov 11, 2018	40	@ Ohio St.	L	71-82	10%
Nov 16, 2018	107	@ Dayton	L	75-79	26%
Nov 20, 2018	348	South Carolina St.	W	88-73	95%
Nov 23, 2018	322	Samford	W	88-78	87%
Nov 25, 2018	281	@ Cleveland St.	W	79-73	61%
Nov 28, 2018	298	@ Eastern Illinois	W	76-69	65%
Dec 01, 2018	279	UMKC	W	82-76	79%
Dec 05, 2018	184	Akron	W	78-77	63%
Dec 08, 2018	170	@ Miami (OH)	W	76-75	40%
Dec 15, 2018	188	@ Austin Peay	W	80-79	44%
Dec 18, 2018	275	IUPUI	W	77-71	78%
Dec 29, 2018	271	@ North Dakota	W	84-78	59%
Dec 30, 2018	199	@ North Dakota St.	W	77-75	46%
Jan 03, 2019	79	South Dakota St.	L	80-87	39%
Jan 10, 2019	283	Oral Roberts	W	79-73	78%
Jan 13, 2019	134	@ South Dakota	L	78-81	32%
Jan 19, 2019	270	@ Western Illinois	W	80-74	59%
Jan 24, 2019	253	Nebraska Omaha	W	85-80	75%
Jan 26, 2019	200	Denver	W	77-75	67%
Jan 30, 2019	134	South Dakota	L	78-81	52%
Feb 02, 2019	283	@ Oral Roberts	W	79-73	60%
Feb 07, 2019	270	Western Illinois	W	80-74	77%
Feb 14, 2019	200	@ Denver	W	77-75	47%
Feb 16, 2019	253	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	85-80	56%
Feb 21, 2019	79	@ South Dakota St.	L	80-87	22%
Feb 28, 2019	271	North Dakota	W	84-78	77%
Mar 02, 2019	199	North Dakota St.	W	77-75	65%
Projected Record						15.7 - 12.3	9.1 - 6.9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	1.1	2.8	4.0	3.5	1.6	0.4		13.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	3.1	6.1	5.4	2.6	0.4				18.3	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.0	5.0	6.4	4.0	1.2	0.1					17.7	3rd
4th							0.0	0.9	5.0	6.4	2.5	0.4	0.0						15.2	4th
5th						0.1	1.1	4.1	5.0	1.5	0.1								12.0	5th
6th					0.1	1.0	3.4	3.6	0.9	0.1									9.1	6th
7th				0.1	1.1	2.8	2.5	0.5	0.0										6.9	7th
8th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.9	1.5	0.4	0.0											4.5	8th
9th	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.8	9th

Total	0.0	0.4	0.8	1.6	3.7	5.4	7.4	9.3	12.0	13.6	12.3	11.6	9.5	6.7	3.9	1.6	0.4			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
15-1	100.0%	1.6		1.5	0.1
14-2	90.0%	3.5		2.8	0.7	0.0
13-3	59.6%	4.0		2.6	1.3	0.1	0.0
12-4	29.8%	2.8		1.1	1.2	0.5	0.0
11-5	9.2%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0						0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	13.5%	13.5		8.5	3.9	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.4%		81.6%	77.3%	4.2%	11.5				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1		18.7%
15-1	1.6%		50.4%	47.7%	2.7%	12.8									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1		0.8		5.1%
14-2	3.9%		40.1%	40.0%	0.2%	13.2											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	2.3		0.3%
13-3	6.7%		30.3%	30.3%	0.0%	13.8											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1	4.7		0.0%
12-4	9.5%		25.2%	25.1%	0.1%	14.3													0.1	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.3	7.1		0.2%
11-5	11.6%		16.7%	16.7%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	9.6
10-6	12.3%		11.2%	11.2%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	10.9
9-7	13.6%		6.4%	6.4%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	12.7
8-8	12.0%		4.3%	4.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	11.5
7-9	9.3%		2.1%	2.1%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.1
6-10	7.4%		2.4%	2.4%		15.9																0.0	0.2	7.2
5-11	5.4%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
4-12	3.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
3-13	1.6%																							1.6
2-14	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.2%	12.1%	0.1%	14.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	2.0	2.9	3.2	2.8	87.8		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.9				10.0	90.0