Evansville
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#176
Achievement Rating-0.4#177
Pace78.5#33
Improvement+2.0#49

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#236
First Shot+0.3#177
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#311
Layup/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#119
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement+0.5#132

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot+2.8#84
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#302
Layups/Dunks-2.9#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#69
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+1.5#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.1% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 25.4% 34.6% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.6% 40.0% 28.8%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.6% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 17.9% 26.2%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round3.9% 4.9% 2.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 91   @ Illinois L 60-99 18%     0 - 1 -30.3 -16.6 -8.6
  Nov 10, 2018 57   @ Xavier L 85-91 12%     0 - 2 +5.8 +13.6 -7.7
  Nov 18, 2018 220   Texas Southern W 85-63 70%     1 - 2 +15.5 -4.8 +16.9
  Nov 24, 2018 104   @ Ball St. L 72-82 20%     1 - 3 -2.2 +3.4 -5.9
  Nov 28, 2018 221   Wyoming W 86-78 70%     2 - 3 +1.5 -3.7 +4.0
  Dec 04, 2018 290   @ Arkansas St. L 77-87 61%     2 - 4 -14.1 -5.6 -7.7
  Dec 09, 2018 104   Ball St. W 89-77 39%     3 - 4 +13.8 +7.6 +5.2
  Dec 15, 2018 145   Jacksonville St. W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 18, 2018 102   @ Murray St. L 67-76 20%    
  Dec 22, 2018 203   Green Bay W 84-80 66%    
  Dec 30, 2018 151   @ Miami (OH) L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 02, 2019 157   Drake W 80-79 55%    
  Jan 05, 2019 150   @ Illinois St. L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 08, 2019 96   Loyola Chicago L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 12, 2019 141   Indiana St. W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 16, 2019 196   @ Missouri St. L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 19, 2019 150   Illinois St. W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 23, 2019 157   @ Drake L 77-82 34%    
  Jan 26, 2019 174   @ Northern Iowa L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 30, 2019 129   Bradley L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 02, 2019 158   Valparaiso W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 06, 2019 141   @ Indiana St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 09, 2019 99   @ Southern Illinois L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 13, 2019 196   Missouri St. W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 17, 2019 174   Northern Iowa W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 20, 2019 96   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 23, 2019 129   @ Bradley L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 27, 2019 99   Southern Illinois L 70-73 38%    
  Mar 02, 2019 158   @ Valparaiso L 71-75 35%    
Projected Record 12.1 - 16.9 7.4 - 10.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.9 3.6 0.3 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.8 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 4.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.7 7.8 10.4 12.7 13.5 13.0 11.2 9.0 6.3 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 91.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 78.2% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 49.2% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 18.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 50.0% 37.5% 12.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0%
16-2 0.2% 36.7% 32.5% 4.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1%
15-3 0.4% 30.1% 28.2% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6%
14-4 1.1% 20.3% 19.5% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9%
13-5 2.3% 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.4%
12-6 4.1% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5 0.1%
11-7 6.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.7
10-8 9.0% 7.1% 7.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.4
9-9 11.2% 5.3% 5.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.6
8-10 13.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.5
7-11 13.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.2
6-12 12.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.6
5-13 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.4
4-14 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.1% 4.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%