Evansville
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#201
Achievement Rating-4.7#232
Pace72.5#89
Improvement-3.1#298

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#279
First Shot-1.0#211
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#338
Layup/Dunks-1.0#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows+2.8#27
Improvement-2.4#284

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#132
First Shot+2.9#85
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#310
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#23
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-0.6#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 76.6% 65.9% 90.7%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 56   @ Illinois L 60-99 11%     0 - 1 -28.0 -14.7 -8.2
  Nov 10, 2018 82   @ Xavier L 85-91 15%     0 - 2 +2.8 +12.9 -10.0
  Nov 18, 2018 228   Texas Southern W 85-63 67%     1 - 2 +15.1 -5.9 +17.7
  Nov 24, 2018 120   @ Ball St. L 72-82 20%     1 - 3 -3.6 +5.2 -9.0
  Nov 28, 2018 298   Wyoming W 86-78 78%     2 - 3 -2.6 -4.2 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2018 259   @ Arkansas St. L 77-87 52%     2 - 4 -12.9 -4.4 -7.7
  Dec 09, 2018 120   Ball St. W 89-77 37%     3 - 4 +12.9 +9.6 +2.3
  Dec 15, 2018 129   Jacksonville St. L 50-55 40%     3 - 5 -4.8 -20.1 +15.3
  Dec 18, 2018 71   @ Murray St. L 64-66 13%     3 - 6 +7.7 -0.8 +8.3
  Dec 22, 2018 224   Green Bay W 80-75 66%     4 - 6 -1.6 +1.1 -2.8
  Dec 30, 2018 144   @ Miami (OH) L 67-70 25%     4 - 7 +1.5 -4.0 +5.5
  Jan 02, 2019 130   Drake W 82-77 41%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +5.0 -10.5 +14.4
  Jan 05, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. L 46-58 31%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -9.4 -22.6 +12.4
  Jan 08, 2019 116   Loyola Chicago W 67-48 36%     6 - 8 2 - 1 +20.1 -0.3 +21.4
  Jan 12, 2019 199   Indiana St. L 66-72 60%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -11.0 -17.0 +6.8
  Jan 16, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. W 70-64 27%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +10.0 +2.4 +7.9
  Jan 19, 2019 165   Illinois St. L 70-78 52%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -11.0 -4.0 -7.0
  Jan 23, 2019 130   @ Drake L 66-78 22%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -6.5 -7.4 +1.4
  Jan 26, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa L 74-81 35%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -5.5 +2.1 -7.6
  Jan 30, 2019 156   Bradley L 73-81 50%     7 - 13 3 - 6 -10.3 +2.4 -12.9
  Feb 02, 2019 184   Valparaiso W 64-53 57%     8 - 13 4 - 6 +6.9 -4.3 +12.0
  Feb 06, 2019 199   @ Indiana St. L 62-85 39%     8 - 14 4 - 7 -22.5 -12.8 -8.5
  Feb 09, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois L 73-78 26%     8 - 15 4 - 8 -0.6 +3.1 -3.7
  Feb 13, 2019 148   Missouri St. L 56-68 46%     8 - 16 4 - 9 -13.5 -8.8 -6.7
  Feb 17, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 20, 2019 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 60-69 19%    
  Feb 23, 2019 156   @ Bradley L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 27, 2019 145   Southern Illinois L 67-68 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 184   @ Valparaiso L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 9.9 - 19.1 5.9 - 12.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 0.3 1.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 3.8 1.7 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 2.1 10.6 0.3 13.0 8th
9th 3.7 17.3 5.0 0.0 26.0 9th
10th 10.1 25.1 14.6 0.5 50.3 10th
Total 10.1 28.8 34.0 20.1 6.2 0.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.8% 8.9% 8.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.9
7-11 20.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.5 19.6
6-12 34.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.6 33.4
5-13 28.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 28.4
4-14 10.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.5 53.5 45.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 6.3%