Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#184
Achievement Rating-2.3#196
Pace63.5#314
Improvement+0.7#154

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#246
First Shot-1.9#238
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#200
Layup/Dunks+4.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#310
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-1.9#269

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+0.8#141
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#170
Layups/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement+2.6#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.6% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 10.4% 18.0% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 26.1% 44.3% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 4.0% 17.9%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round4.1% 5.4% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 122   Western Kentucky L 71-83 32%     0 - 1 -8.6 +2.6 -11.4
  Nov 16, 2018 271   Monmouth W 64-53 68%     1 - 1 +4.7 -2.5 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2018 176   Wake Forest L 63-69 47%     1 - 2 -6.7 -5.0 -2.3
  Nov 21, 2018 332   SIU Edwardsville W 75-70 88%     2 - 2 -9.3 -5.9 -3.5
  Nov 24, 2018 105   @ West Virginia L 76-88 20%     2 - 3 -4.6 +8.3 -13.2
  Nov 28, 2018 151   @ UNLV W 72-64 32%     3 - 3 +11.5 -9.6 +20.2
  Dec 02, 2018 311   UC Riverside W 82-73 83%     4 - 3 -2.5 +10.7 -12.2
  Dec 04, 2018 225   High Point L 53-55 69%     4 - 4 -8.6 -13.9 +5.0
  Dec 08, 2018 256   @ George Washington W 82-79 55%     5 - 4 +0.2 +13.8 -13.4
  Dec 17, 2018 120   Ball St. L 61-77 41%     5 - 5 -15.1 -10.7 -4.4
  Dec 19, 2018 85   @ Texas A&M L 49-71 17%     5 - 6 -13.3 -16.9 +2.6
  Jan 02, 2019 165   Illinois St. W 58-56 56%     6 - 6 1 - 0 -1.0 -12.8 +11.9
  Jan 05, 2019 148   @ Missouri St. W 82-66 30%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +20.0 +12.1 +8.1
  Jan 08, 2019 156   Bradley W 61-50 54%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +8.7 -6.6 +16.0
  Jan 12, 2019 145   @ Southern Illinois W 65-61 29%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +8.4 +6.3 +2.8
  Jan 15, 2019 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 54-71 22%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -10.3 -5.1 -8.0
  Jan 19, 2019 180   Northern Iowa W 75-66 60%     10 - 7 5 - 1 +5.0 +9.8 -3.6
  Jan 23, 2019 199   @ Indiana St. L 53-70 43%     10 - 8 5 - 2 -16.5 -8.8 -10.8
  Jan 26, 2019 130   Drake L 59-70 45%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -11.0 -16.0 +5.3
  Jan 29, 2019 148   Missouri St. L 54-55 50%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -2.5 -12.9 +10.3
  Feb 02, 2019 201   @ Evansville L 53-64 43%     10 - 11 5 - 5 -10.7 -13.0 +1.5
  Feb 05, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. W 69-53 35%     11 - 11 6 - 5 +18.6 +2.4 +17.3
  Feb 10, 2019 116   Loyola Chicago L 51-56 40%     11 - 12 6 - 6 -3.9 -8.8 +3.9
  Feb 13, 2019 199   Indiana St. L 82-87 64%     11 - 13 6 - 7 -10.0 +1.0 -10.7
  Feb 16, 2019 130   @ Drake L 79-84 25%     11 - 14 6 - 8 +0.5 +3.9 -3.1
  Feb 20, 2019 145   Southern Illinois L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 23, 2019 180   @ Northern Iowa L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 27, 2019 156   @ Bradley L 60-65 33%    
  Mar 02, 2019 201   Evansville W 68-64 65%    
Projected Record 12.9 - 16.1 7.9 - 10.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 1.9 3rd
4th 0.3 8.1 2.9 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 10.0 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.3 14.0 2.8 17.1 6th
7th 5.6 14.3 0.2 20.0 7th
8th 2.1 18.6 4.1 0.0 24.8 8th
9th 4.2 4.0 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 2.1 0.2 2.3 10th
Total 8.4 28.7 36.8 21.3 4.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.9% 9.3% 9.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.4
9-9 21.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 19.7
8-10 36.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 35.2
7-11 28.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.1 0.5 28.1
6-12 8.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.9 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.6 1.6 41.2 55.4 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 4.7%