Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Achievement Rating-0.3#177
Pace66.2#270
Improvement+1.3#84

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#164
First Shot+0.9#161
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#203
Layup/Dunks+5.9#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#240
Freethrows-0.9#223
Improvement+1.6#54

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#167
First Shot-1.2#209
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#97
Layups/Dunks-4.6#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows+3.5#26
Improvement-0.3#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 45.2% 59.6% 35.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 54.4% 43.4%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.7% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 9.8% 14.7%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round5.8% 7.3% 4.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 83   Western Kentucky L 71-83 29%     0 - 1 -6.1 +1.3 -7.6
  Nov 16, 2018 304   Monmouth W 64-53 79%     1 - 1 +2.8 -4.4 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2018 156   Wake Forest L 63-69 49%     1 - 2 -5.6 -5.1 -1.1
  Nov 21, 2018 327   SIU Edwardsville W 75-70 90%     2 - 2 -9.0 -6.8 -2.3
  Nov 24, 2018 38   @ West Virginia L 76-88 10%     2 - 3 +2.3 +12.4 -10.4
  Nov 28, 2018 136   @ UNLV W 72-64 31%     3 - 3 +13.3 -4.9 +17.3
  Dec 02, 2018 293   UC Riverside W 82-73 84%     4 - 3 -1.3 +14.2 -14.5
  Dec 04, 2018 246   High Point L 53-55 78%     4 - 4 -10.0 -16.0 +5.7
  Dec 08, 2018 279   @ George Washington W 82-79 64%     5 - 4 -0.6 +11.6 -12.1
  Dec 17, 2018 84   Ball St. L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 19, 2018 86   @ Texas A&M L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 02, 2019 150   Illinois St. W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 05, 2019 194   @ Missouri St. L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 08, 2019 128   Bradley W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 12, 2019 103   @ Southern Illinois L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 15, 2019 95   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-69 22%    
  Jan 19, 2019 174   Northern Iowa W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 23, 2019 140   @ Indiana St. L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 26, 2019 155   Drake W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 29, 2019 194   Missouri St. W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 02, 2019 200   @ Evansville L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 05, 2019 150   @ Illinois St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 10, 2019 95   Loyola Chicago L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 13, 2019 140   Indiana St. W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 16, 2019 155   @ Drake L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 20, 2019 103   Southern Illinois L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 23, 2019 174   @ Northern Iowa L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 27, 2019 128   @ Bradley L 64-70 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 200   Evansville W 75-70 68%    
Projected Record 14.0 - 15.0 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 7.3 10.1 12.6 13.7 13.4 11.5 9.3 6.5 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 92.3% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 74.7% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.1
13-5 47.2% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 17.1% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 49.2% 39.7% 9.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8%
16-2 0.3% 31.8% 31.2% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9%
15-3 0.9% 26.2% 25.7% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7%
14-4 2.0% 22.8% 22.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.9% 16.6% 16.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3
12-6 6.5% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.6
11-7 9.3% 10.5% 10.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.3
10-8 11.5% 7.9% 7.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.6
9-9 13.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.6
8-10 13.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 13.2
7-11 12.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.3
6-12 10.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
5-13 7.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.2
4-14 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-15 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.1 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%