Drake
Missouri Valley
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#129
Achievement Rating+7.1#77
Pace71.3#116
Improvement-1.2#243

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#124
First Shot+3.4#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks+3.3#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#100
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement-1.3#249

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#158
Layups/Dunks-1.7#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#57
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.4% 21.3% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 100.0% 97.3%
Conference Champion 67.4% 75.4% 42.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.4% 21.3% 17.7%
Second Round2.1% 2.4% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 66   @ Colorado L 71-100 25%     0 - 1 -19.3 -3.3 -13.2
  Nov 17, 2018 124   Texas St. W 75-69 59%     1 - 1 +6.6 +0.7 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2018 234   @ UMKC W 66-63 68%     2 - 1 +1.2 -13.3 +14.5
  Nov 27, 2018 122   Boise St. W 83-74 59%     3 - 1 +9.7 +5.7 +3.5
  Dec 01, 2018 196   North Dakota St. W 95-88 68%     4 - 1 +4.9 +17.7 -12.8
  Dec 06, 2018 297   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-61 78%     5 - 1 +9.0 -1.5 +10.0
  Dec 15, 2018 12   Iowa St. L 68-77 11%     5 - 2 +7.2 +4.0 +2.8
  Dec 17, 2018 330   SIU Edwardsville W 79-66 93%     6 - 2 -1.1 -6.8 +4.7
  Dec 19, 2018 194   Rider W 76-58 77%     7 - 2 +13.4 +5.5 +8.3
  Dec 22, 2018 59   New Mexico St. W 66-63 32%     8 - 2 +10.8 +0.9 +10.1
  Dec 23, 2018 102   San Diego W 110-103 43%     9 - 2 +12.0 +16.8 -6.3
  Jan 02, 2019 203   @ Evansville L 77-82 60%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -4.7 -10.9 +7.3
  Jan 05, 2019 113   Loyola Chicago L 74-85 57%     9 - 4 0 - 2 -9.4 +13.7 -24.0
  Jan 08, 2019 146   Southern Illinois W 82-70 65%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +10.9 +16.9 -4.8
  Jan 13, 2019 181   @ Northern Iowa L 54-57 55%     10 - 5 1 - 3 -1.5 -7.9 +5.9
  Jan 16, 2019 162   @ Bradley W 69-52 51%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +19.8 +3.9 +16.9
  Jan 20, 2019 150   Missouri St. W 74-63 67%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +9.1 -0.8 +9.8
  Jan 23, 2019 203   Evansville W 78-66 78%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +6.9 +2.1 +4.3
  Jan 26, 2019 185   @ Valparaiso W 70-59 56%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +12.3 -1.8 +13.9
  Jan 30, 2019 158   Illinois St. L 55-69 70%     14 - 6 5 - 4 -16.5 -12.7 -5.3
  Feb 02, 2019 198   @ Indiana St. W 68-62 59%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +6.5 -4.6 +11.0
  Feb 05, 2019 113   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-86 36%     15 - 7 6 - 5 -15.0 +10.3 -28.7
  Feb 09, 2019 181   Northern Iowa W 83-77 74%     16 - 7 7 - 5 +2.1 +5.8 -3.8
  Feb 12, 2019 146   @ Southern Illinois W 72-69 45%     17 - 7 8 - 5 +7.3 +5.1 +2.4
  Feb 16, 2019 185   Valparaiso W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 19, 2019 162   Bradley W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 24, 2019 158   @ Illinois St. W 73-72 49%    
  Feb 27, 2019 198   Indiana St. W 78-70 78%    
  Mar 02, 2019 150   @ Missouri St. L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 20.2 - 8.8 11.2 - 6.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.0 23.6 28.7 11.1 67.4 1st
2nd 0.4 8.5 9.1 1.3 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 1.3 5.3 0.9 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.7 5.4 19.1 33.7 30.0 11.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 99.8% 11.1    10.6 0.5 0.0
12-6 95.6% 28.7    21.0 7.2 0.5 0.0
11-7 70.1% 23.6    7.2 10.7 4.8 0.9 0.1
10-8 20.9% 4.0    0.2 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 67.4% 67.4 38.9 19.1 6.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.1% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.1 0.1 8.1 0.0%
12-6 30.0% 23.1% 23.1% 13.1 0.0 1.1 4.3 1.5 0.0 23.1
11-7 33.7% 19.8% 19.8% 13.5 0.4 3.2 3.0 0.2 27.0
10-8 19.1% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.3 16.0
9-9 5.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.7
8-10 0.7% 7.0% 7.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 3.1 9.6 6.7 0.7 79.6 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 12.3 0.1 7.7 53.0 36.1 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 0.1% 13.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 0.3%