Tennessee
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#11
Achievement Rating+17.7#21
Pace69.3#195
Improvement-0.5#212

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#15
First Shot+8.1#13
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#131
Layup/Dunks+2.3#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement-0.8#240

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#11
First Shot+4.6#45
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#15
Layups/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#133
Freethrows-0.4#194
Improvement+0.3#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 9.8% 16.8% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 49.8% 65.6% 39.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 97.1% 89.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.7% 95.9% 86.0%
Average Seed 4.7 3.8 5.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 97.9% 95.5%
Conference Champion 34.2% 40.3% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 0.8% 2.4%
First Round91.6% 96.8% 88.3%
Second Round74.3% 82.8% 68.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.4% 55.7% 40.5%
Elite Eight26.1% 33.1% 21.6%
Final Four13.7% 18.1% 11.0%
Championship Game7.1% 9.6% 5.4%
National Champion3.4% 4.9% 2.5%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 126   Louisiana W 87-65 93%     1 - 0 +22.0 +16.0 +6.4
  Nov 13, 2018 78   Georgia Tech W 66-53 89%     2 - 0 +16.4 -0.5 +17.0
  Nov 21, 2018 32   Louisville W 92-81 68%     3 - 0 +23.1 +18.2 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2018 5   Kansas L 81-87 43%     3 - 1 +12.6 +4.0 +9.5
  Nov 28, 2018 275   Eastern Kentucky W 95-67 98%     4 - 1 +18.7 +6.1 +9.2
  Dec 02, 2018 298   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-51 99%     5 - 1 +17.2 +5.1 +12.6
  Dec 09, 2018 2   Gonzaga L 79-82 39%    
  Dec 15, 2018 116   @ Memphis W 82-72 82%    
  Dec 19, 2018 196   Samford W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 156   Wake Forest W 82-63 96%    
  Dec 29, 2018 334   Tennessee Tech W 88-56 99.9%   
  Jan 05, 2019 111   Georgia W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 08, 2019 81   @ Missouri W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 12, 2019 20   @ Florida W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 15, 2019 58   Arkansas W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 19, 2019 62   Alabama W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 23, 2019 76   @ Vanderbilt W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 26, 2019 38   West Virginia W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 29, 2019 117   @ South Carolina W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 02, 2019 86   @ Texas A&M W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 05, 2019 81   Missouri W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 09, 2019 20   Florida W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 13, 2019 117   South Carolina W 82-66 92%    
  Feb 16, 2019 16   @ Kentucky L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 19, 2019 76   Vanderbilt W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 23, 2019 53   @ LSU W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 27, 2019 65   @ Mississippi W 79-73 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 16   Kentucky W 78-72 69%    
  Mar 05, 2019 18   Mississippi St. W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 09, 2019 9   @ Auburn L 73-77 36%    
Projected Record 23.2 - 6.8 13.2 - 4.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.7 9.8 9.5 5.6 1.6 34.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.2 8.6 4.9 1.2 0.1 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.7 5.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.1 9.2 12.8 15.5 16.3 14.8 10.7 5.7 1.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 98.5% 5.6    5.2 0.4
16-2 88.9% 9.5    7.5 1.9 0.0
15-3 65.7% 9.8    5.7 3.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 35.3% 5.7    2.1 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 22.5 9.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.7% 100.0% 48.0% 51.9% 1.5 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 10.7% 99.9% 41.0% 59.0% 2.0 3.4 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 14.8% 99.8% 33.4% 66.4% 2.9 1.3 4.9 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-4 16.3% 99.3% 27.3% 72.0% 4.0 0.1 2.0 4.6 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-5 15.5% 98.2% 21.9% 76.3% 5.2 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 3.3 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 97.6%
12-6 12.8% 95.4% 16.6% 78.8% 6.6 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 94.5%
11-7 9.2% 88.8% 11.6% 77.1% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 87.3%
10-8 6.1% 78.0% 7.9% 70.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 76.1%
9-9 3.7% 60.6% 5.4% 55.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 58.4%
8-10 1.9% 29.8% 2.6% 27.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 27.9%
7-11 1.0% 9.5% 2.8% 6.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.9%
6-12 0.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5%
5-13 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 24.7% 67.5% 4.7 9.8 13.7 14.4 12.0 9.9 8.7 7.1 6.0 4.5 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.8 89.7%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 5.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 85.6 12.6 1.8