Tennessee
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#7
Achievement Rating+26.2#3
Pace69.1#180
Improvement-0.9#229

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#3
First Shot+12.9#2
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#94
Layup/Dunks+3.2#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#237
Freethrows+2.3#40
Improvement+1.1#134

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+5.3#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#148
Layups/Dunks+4.6#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#257
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement-2.0#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 54.9% 55.8% 33.4%
Top 4 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 98.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 1.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 58.8% 59.9% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.6% 97.7% 96.4%
Sweet Sixteen74.0% 74.2% 69.3%
Elite Eight49.2% 49.5% 42.2%
Final Four27.0% 27.2% 20.8%
Championship Game13.0% 13.1% 9.7%
National Champion5.6% 5.7% 3.5%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 185   Louisiana W 87-65 98%     1 - 0 +17.7 +11.3 +6.9
  Nov 13, 2018 108   Georgia Tech W 66-53 94%     2 - 0 +14.6 -0.1 +14.8
  Nov 21, 2018 16   Louisville W 92-81 65%     3 - 0 +26.5 +21.1 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2018 11   Kansas L 81-87 62%     3 - 1 +10.4 +4.9 +6.5
  Nov 28, 2018 277   Eastern Kentucky W 95-67 99%     4 - 1 +18.6 +8.1 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2018 282   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-51 99%     5 - 1 +18.5 +4.5 +14.4
  Dec 09, 2018 2   @ Gonzaga W 76-73 24%     6 - 1 +29.8 +15.2 +14.7
  Dec 15, 2018 76   @ Memphis W 102-92 83%     7 - 1 +19.2 +20.8 -2.8
  Dec 19, 2018 174   Samford W 83-70 97%     8 - 1 +9.7 +8.7 +1.2
  Dec 22, 2018 176   Wake Forest W 83-64 97%     9 - 1 +15.5 +14.8 +2.3
  Dec 29, 2018 328   Tennessee Tech W 96-53 99%     10 - 1 +28.9 +18.5 +9.5
  Jan 05, 2019 113   Georgia W 96-50 94%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +47.3 +19.7 +26.0
  Jan 08, 2019 89   @ Missouri W 87-63 85%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +32.6 +22.0 +11.2
  Jan 12, 2019 29   @ Florida W 78-67 65%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +26.6 +21.0 +6.3
  Jan 15, 2019 58   Arkansas W 106-87 90%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +24.2 +22.7 -1.0
  Jan 19, 2019 44   Alabama W 71-68 88%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +9.8 +2.1 +7.7
  Jan 23, 2019 119   @ Vanderbilt W 88-83 88%     16 - 1 6 - 0 +11.5 +11.0 +0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 105   West Virginia W 83-66 94%     17 - 1 +18.8 +3.0 +14.2
  Jan 29, 2019 74   @ South Carolina W 92-70 83%     18 - 1 7 - 0 +31.4 +22.7 +8.5
  Feb 02, 2019 85   @ Texas A&M W 93-76 84%     19 - 1 8 - 0 +25.7 +28.7 -2.3
  Feb 05, 2019 89   Missouri W 72-60 93%     20 - 1 9 - 0 +15.0 +8.9 +7.3
  Feb 09, 2019 29   Florida W 73-61 81%     21 - 1 10 - 0 +22.1 +14.4 +8.7
  Feb 13, 2019 74   South Carolina W 85-73 92%     22 - 1 11 - 0 +15.9 +16.0 +0.2
  Feb 16, 2019 5   @ Kentucky L 69-86 38%     22 - 2 11 - 1 +5.7 +9.9 -4.7
  Feb 19, 2019 119   Vanderbilt W 84-66 96%    
  Feb 23, 2019 22   @ LSU W 82-80 58%    
  Feb 27, 2019 38   @ Mississippi W 81-75 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 5   Kentucky W 76-74 59%    
  Mar 05, 2019 23   Mississippi St. W 81-73 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 14   @ Auburn W 79-78 53%    
Projected Record 26.1 - 3.9 15.1 - 2.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.9 18.0 27.8 11.0 58.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 9.0 12.8 1.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.9 8.8 1.5 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 6.9 19.8 32.3 28.9 11.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 11.0    11.0
16-2 96.2% 27.8    20.0 7.5 0.4
15-3 55.9% 18.0    4.9 9.2 3.9
14-4 9.7% 1.9    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 58.8% 58.8 36.0 17.5 5.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 11.0% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.1 10.2 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-2 28.9% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.2 22.0 6.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 32.3% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.5 17.1 13.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.8% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.9 5.1 11.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.9% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 2.4 0.5 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.0% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.1% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.6 54.9 36.5 7.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 100.0% 1.1 93.1 6.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.1 0.1