UNLV
Mountain West
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#151
Achievement Rating+1.7#145
Pace70.0#151
Improvement-3.5#310

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#96
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#10
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+2.4#66

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#232
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#277
Layups/Dunks-3.7#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows+2.2#45
Improvement-5.9#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.4
.500 or above 89.0% 96.7% 71.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 100.0% 84.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 143   Loyola Marymount L 50-61 57%     0 - 1 -12.0 -16.7 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2018 311   UC Riverside W 72-51 87%     1 - 1 +9.5 -3.0 +14.0
  Nov 16, 2018 216   Oakland W 74-61 74%     2 - 1 +7.0 +0.2 +7.6
  Nov 20, 2018 187   Pacific W 96-70 69%     3 - 1 +21.6 +23.1 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2018 279   Southern Utah W 76-71 83%     4 - 1 -4.4 +0.9 -5.2
  Nov 28, 2018 184   Valparaiso L 64-72 68%     4 - 2 -12.1 -16.4 +5.2
  Dec 01, 2018 31   Cincinnati L 61-65 20%     4 - 3 +5.5 -0.7 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2018 56   @ Illinois L 74-77 17%     4 - 4 +8.0 -0.3 +8.6
  Dec 15, 2018 73   BYU W 92-90 28%     5 - 4 +8.7 +12.4 -3.9
  Dec 22, 2018 160   @ Hawaii W 73-59 42%     6 - 4 +16.7 +3.6 +13.4
  Dec 23, 2018 199   Indiana St. L 79-84 61%     6 - 5 -7.3 +0.8 -7.7
  Dec 25, 2018 146   Bucknell L 72-97 47%     6 - 6 -23.4 -2.7 -19.8
  Jan 02, 2019 178   Colorado St. W 78-76 67%     7 - 6 1 - 0 -1.9 -0.2 -1.7
  Jan 05, 2019 298   Wyoming W 68-56 85%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +1.4 -5.0 +7.0
  Jan 08, 2019 155   @ New Mexico W 80-69 40%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +14.3 +13.2 +1.7
  Jan 16, 2019 239   @ Air Force L 88-106 60%     9 - 7 3 - 1 -19.8 +13.9 -33.5
  Jan 19, 2019 338   San Jose St. W 94-56 93%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +22.1 +8.6 +10.6
  Jan 22, 2019 155   New Mexico W 74-58 61%     11 - 7 5 - 1 +13.8 +2.6 +11.8
  Jan 26, 2019 115   @ San Diego St. L 77-94 28%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -10.3 +4.1 -13.7
  Jan 29, 2019 13   Nevada L 70-87 12%     11 - 9 5 - 3 -3.7 -1.5 -1.0
  Feb 02, 2019 49   @ Utah St. L 65-82 14%     11 - 10 5 - 4 -4.9 -2.5 -2.4
  Feb 06, 2019 125   @ Boise St. W 83-72 30%     12 - 10 6 - 4 +17.0 +18.9 -1.0
  Feb 09, 2019 59   Fresno St. L 65-83 33%     12 - 11 6 - 5 -12.9 +0.7 -15.2
  Feb 12, 2019 239   Air Force W 77-72 78%     13 - 11 7 - 5 -2.4 +6.2 -8.3
  Feb 16, 2019 338   @ San Jose St. W 71-64 85%     14 - 11 8 - 5 -3.4 -6.0 +2.5
  Feb 19, 2019 298   @ Wyoming W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 23, 2019 115   San Diego St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 27, 2019 13   @ Nevada L 68-86 4%    
  Mar 02, 2019 125   Boise St. W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 178   @ Colorado St. L 76-77 46%    
Projected Record 16.2 - 13.8 10.2 - 7.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.2 3.2 3rd
4th 0.7 16.6 25.4 7.8 0.1 50.6 4th
5th 0.2 11.0 17.3 2.6 0.0 31.2 5th
6th 3.1 9.1 1.0 13.2 6th
7th 1.4 0.2 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.8 20.9 35.0 28.9 9.9 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 9.9% 1.8% 1.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
11-7 28.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 28.6
10-8 35.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 34.7
9-9 20.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.8
8-10 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.4%