Wagner
Northeast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#275
Achievement Rating-5.0#240
Pace61.6#336
Improvement+0.9#142

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#322
First Shot-7.6#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#110
Layup/Dunks-8.5#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#68
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement-3.1#303

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#171
First Shot-0.1#176
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks+1.4#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#102
Freethrows-3.4#340
Improvement+4.0#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 12.1% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 43.6% 60.4% 22.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 100.0% 86.0%
Conference Champion 11.0% 17.3% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.1% 9.2% 8.9%
First Round6.2% 7.3% 4.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Away) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 50   @ Seton Hall L 49-89 5%     0 - 1 -28.0 -15.5 -14.1
  Nov 10, 2018 236   @ Umass Lowell L 84-88 32%     0 - 2 -5.8 +4.1 -9.8
  Nov 17, 2018 286   @ Fairfield W 79-73 41%     1 - 2 +1.7 +4.2 -2.6
  Nov 20, 2018 197   NJIT L 60-71 44%     1 - 3 -15.9 -11.5 -4.6
  Nov 24, 2018 195   Rider L 65-89 43%     1 - 4 -28.8 -13.7 -13.6
  Nov 30, 2018 208   @ American W 64-58 27%     2 - 4 +6.0 +1.4 +5.5
  Dec 16, 2018 42   @ St. John's L 58-73 4%     2 - 5 -1.7 -8.2 +6.4
  Dec 22, 2018 188   Hartford W 77-68 42%     3 - 5 +4.5 -2.7 +7.0
  Dec 29, 2018 182   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-59 22%     3 - 6 -0.6 -6.8 +5.8
  Jan 03, 2019 305   @ Central Connecticut St. W 80-58 46%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +16.4 +3.4 +13.0
  Jan 05, 2019 262   St. Francis Brooklyn L 59-66 58%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -15.6 -13.2 -2.7
  Jan 10, 2019 255   Sacred Heart W 76-73 57%     5 - 7 2 - 1 -5.3 -0.6 -4.6
  Jan 12, 2019 250   Fairleigh Dickinson W 66-60 56%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -2.1 -5.5 +4.2
  Jan 19, 2019 327   Mount St. Mary's L 56-70 76%     6 - 8 3 - 2 -28.0 -16.9 -12.6
  Jan 21, 2019 255   @ Sacred Heart L 38-62 36%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -26.7 -36.2 +8.4
  Jan 24, 2019 240   @ St. Francis (PA) W 83-79 33%     7 - 9 4 - 3 +2.1 +16.9 -14.2
  Jan 26, 2019 272   @ Robert Morris L 51-57 39%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -9.5 -12.0 +1.6
  Jan 31, 2019 326   Bryant L 64-71 76%     7 - 11 4 - 5 -20.8 -19.8 -0.9
  Feb 02, 2019 270   LIU Brooklyn W 71-59 60%     8 - 11 5 - 5 +3.0 -7.3 +10.2
  Feb 07, 2019 262   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 44-51 37%     8 - 12 5 - 6 -10.1 -21.8 +10.7
  Feb 09, 2019 270   @ LIU Brooklyn W 68-65 38%     9 - 12 6 - 6 -0.5 -0.4 +0.2
  Feb 14, 2019 305   Central Connecticut St. W 63-57 67%     10 - 12 7 - 6 -5.1 -6.9 +2.7
  Feb 16, 2019 327   @ Mount St. Mary's W 58-56 58%     11 - 12 8 - 6 -6.5 -9.5 +3.3
  Feb 21, 2019 326   @ Bryant W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 250   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 28, 2019 240   St. Francis (PA) W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 272   Robert Morris W 62-59 60%    
Projected Record 13.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 8.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 5.1 5.9 11.0 1st
2nd 3.2 16.8 1.3 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 14.4 4.1 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.2 15.3 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.3 11.3 3.6 15.3 5th
6th 3.4 8.7 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 2.5 0.4 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 6.2 23.9 36.6 26.0 7.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 81.7% 5.9    2.0 3.4 0.5
11-7 19.4% 5.1    0.0 0.7 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 2.0 4.1 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.3% 17.3% 17.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 6.0
11-7 26.0% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.0 3.5 22.5
10-8 36.6% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8 32.8
9-9 23.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0 21.8
8-10 6.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.4 5.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.7 89.0 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 15.8 0.2 19.4 80.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 3.9%