Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#286
Achievement Rating-11.4#319
Pace70.8#130
Improvement-2.2#282

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#298
First Shot-3.5#275
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#290
Layup/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows-3.5#337
Improvement-6.8#350

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#223
First Shot-2.5#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#105
Layups/Dunks-1.6#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement+4.6#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.6% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.8% 11.8% 51.7%
First Four2.9% 3.5% 2.4%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 10   @ Purdue L 57-90 2%     0 - 1 -13.7 -6.3 -9.3
  Nov 10, 2018 143   @ Bucknell W 60-58 14%     1 - 1 +6.4 -5.1 +11.7
  Nov 13, 2018 278   LIU Brooklyn L 87-89 59%     1 - 2 -11.3 +6.0 -17.2
  Nov 17, 2018 277   Wagner L 73-79 59%     1 - 3 -15.2 -2.8 -12.3
  Nov 23, 2018 299   Longwood L 65-67 54%     1 - 4 -10.0 -5.4 -4.7
  Nov 24, 2018 200   @ Seattle L 80-83 24%     1 - 5 -2.6 +2.4 -4.8
  Nov 25, 2018 297   Denver W 86-85 53%     2 - 5 -6.7 +8.8 -15.5
  Dec 01, 2018 234   @ Army L 60-63 31%     2 - 6 -4.8 -14.0 +9.4
  Dec 06, 2018 224   Oakland L 86-87 48%     2 - 7 -7.5 +4.1 -11.6
  Dec 09, 2018 110   @ Old Dominion L 69-79 10%     2 - 8 -3.1 +5.1 -8.8
  Dec 16, 2018 102   @ Boston College L 67-77 10%     2 - 9 -2.6 -8.1 +6.3
  Dec 22, 2018 346   @ New Hampshire W 63-57 70%     3 - 9 -6.5 -7.5 +1.3
  Jan 03, 2019 192   Rider L 82-83 41%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -5.7 +1.1 -6.6
  Jan 05, 2019 215   @ Iona L 87-94 27%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -7.7 +2.7 -9.6
  Jan 07, 2019 298   Niagara W 77-59 64%     4 - 11 1 - 2 +7.4 -7.4 +14.0
  Jan 10, 2019 307   St. Peter's W 60-57 67%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -8.4 -7.7 -0.2
  Jan 13, 2019 214   @ Quinnipiac L 78-80 27%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -2.7 +6.7 -9.4
  Jan 17, 2019 260   @ Monmouth L 57-74 35%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -20.1 -14.0 -6.0
  Jan 19, 2019 239   Canisius L 68-73 51%     5 - 14 2 - 5 -12.2 -10.0 -2.2
  Jan 24, 2019 247   Siena L 48-57 53%     5 - 15 2 - 6 -16.7 -24.7 +7.4
  Jan 27, 2019 215   Iona W 80-68 47%     6 - 15 3 - 6 +5.9 -1.8 +7.1
  Jan 31, 2019 311   @ Manhattan L 49-62 47%     6 - 16 3 - 7 -19.2 -15.7 -5.1
  Feb 02, 2019 244   @ Marist W 57-52 32%     7 - 16 4 - 7 +2.8 -14.8 +17.9
  Feb 04, 2019 247   @ Siena L 50-61 33%     7 - 17 4 - 8 -13.3 -10.8 -5.2
  Feb 09, 2019 260   Monmouth L 49-61 56%     7 - 18 4 - 9 -20.5 -21.6 +0.5
  Feb 15, 2019 239   @ Canisius L 68-72 31%     7 - 19 4 - 10 -5.8 -4.7 -1.2
  Feb 17, 2019 298   @ Niagara L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 24, 2019 311   Manhattan W 64-59 67%    
  Mar 01, 2019 244   Marist W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 03, 2019 307   @ St. Peter's L 63-64 45%    
Projected Record 9.1 - 20.9 6.1 - 11.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 4.8 8.1 7th
8th 2.9 13.1 2.5 18.5 8th
9th 1.3 19.0 9.6 0.2 30.1 9th
10th 0.4 12.0 13.9 0.7 27.1 10th
11th 5.3 9.3 1.2 15.7 11th
Total 5.7 22.6 37.0 26.6 8.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 8.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.4 7.6
7-11 26.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 1.0 25.6
6-12 37.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.9 36.1
5-13 22.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 22.2
4-14 5.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 16.0 2.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 3.6%