Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Achievement Rating+2.4#146
Pace80.9#15
Improvement+0.1#163

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#104
First Shot-0.3#192
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#33
Layup/Dunks+6.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
Freethrows-2.5#301
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#152
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#201
Layups/Dunks-4.8#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#236
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+0.2#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.2% 47.0% 40.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 97.3% 99.1% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.2% 97.8%
Conference Champion 66.7% 71.2% 61.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round43.7% 46.7% 40.0%
Second Round5.7% 6.6% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 42   @ Central Florida L 70-84 17%     0 - 1 -0.7 -1.3 +1.9
  Nov 19, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 87-67 98%     1 - 1 -0.3 -3.3 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2018 257   @ Wagner W 89-65 71%     2 - 1 +21.5 +10.2 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2018 39   @ West Virginia L 78-92 15%     2 - 2 +0.3 +4.6 -2.8
  Dec 08, 2018 116   @ Hofstra L 73-89 36%     2 - 3 -9.0 +5.5 -15.8
  Dec 12, 2018 274   Norfolk St. W 81-71 88%     3 - 3 +0.7 -0.6 +0.6
  Dec 15, 2018 286   Robert Morris W 69-50 89%     4 - 3 +8.9 -11.6 +18.8
  Dec 17, 2018 177   @ Washington St. W 86-84 55%    
  Dec 19, 2018 151   @ Drake L 82-83 49%    
  Dec 22, 2018 147   Northern Colorado W 85-83 59%    
  Dec 30, 2018 92   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 03, 2019 246   @ Fairfield W 84-79 69%    
  Jan 05, 2019 242   Quinnipiac W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 11, 2019 227   @ Canisius W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 13, 2019 255   @ Niagara W 85-79 71%    
  Jan 19, 2019 320   Manhattan W 75-59 93%    
  Jan 25, 2019 210   @ Iona W 86-83 63%    
  Jan 27, 2019 215   Marist W 80-71 81%    
  Jan 31, 2019 268   St. Peter's W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 02, 2019 305   @ Monmouth W 80-72 78%    
  Feb 05, 2019 320   @ Manhattan W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 08, 2019 227   Canisius W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 10, 2019 265   Siena W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 12, 2019 242   @ Quinnipiac W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2019 305   Monmouth W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 17, 2019 268   @ St. Peter's W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 22, 2019 255   Niagara W 88-76 86%    
  Mar 01, 2019 210   Iona W 89-80 80%    
  Mar 03, 2019 215   @ Marist W 77-74 62%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 9.1 14.0 - 4.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.3 7.2 12.7 16.2 15.1 9.7 3.3 66.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.9 5.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 3.9 6.7 10.3 13.7 16.3 17.2 15.2 9.7 3.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
17-1 100.0% 9.7    9.7 0.0
16-2 99.3% 15.1    14.6 0.6
15-3 94.2% 16.2    14.3 1.8 0.1
14-4 78.0% 12.7    8.8 3.6 0.3
13-5 52.1% 7.2    3.3 3.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 22.2% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.7% 66.7 54.4 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.3% 72.0% 71.4% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.1%
17-1 9.7% 62.5% 62.3% 0.2% 13.2 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.3 3.6 0.5%
16-2 15.2% 53.3% 53.3% 13.7 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 7.1
15-3 17.2% 50.2% 50.2% 14.2 0.1 1.3 4.4 2.6 0.2 8.6
14-4 16.3% 44.9% 44.9% 14.6 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.8 0.5 9.0
13-5 13.7% 38.3% 38.3% 14.9 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 8.5
12-6 10.3% 32.5% 32.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.1 7.0
11-7 6.7% 26.4% 26.4% 15.5 0.1 0.7 1.0 4.9
10-8 3.9% 21.6% 21.6% 15.7 0.3 0.6 3.1
9-9 2.3% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.0
8-10 0.8% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.1 0.7
7-11 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.2% 44.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.8 14.8 13.8 4.8 55.9 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 5.1 41.0 46.2 7.7