Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Liberty 64.9%   13   17 - 3 5 - 2 25 - 4 13 - 3 +6.5      +1.4 139 +5.1 61 56.6 352 +7.9 71 +0.1 2
172 North Florida 17.3%   10 - 10 5 - 2 16 - 13 11 - 5 -0.5      +4.1 62 -4.6 305 73.8 66 +0.3 166 +0.6 1
237 Jacksonville 4.9%   8 - 12 3 - 4 13 - 16 8 - 8 -4.4      -5.3 311 +0.9 138 65.2 283 -6.0 265 -7.2 6
252 Lipscomb 3.5%   6 - 13 3 - 5 10 - 17 7 - 9 -5.1      -0.6 194 -4.5 301 72.3 94 -8.0 293 -9.1 8
256 NJIT 4.3%   6 - 13 4 - 3 11 - 17 9 - 7 -5.3      -2.7 251 -2.7 251 65.5 279 -8.0 292 -2.3 4
284 North Alabama 2.3%   7 - 11 4 - 3 11 - 16 8 - 8 -6.8      -6.2 326 -0.7 186 70.9 131 -7.2 281 -4.4 5
303 Stetson 1.6%   9 - 11 5 - 2 12 - 17 8 - 8 -8.4      -4.5 298 -3.9 286 59.8 348 -5.2 249 -0.4 3
310 Florida Gulf Coast 1.1%   4 - 16 3 - 4 7 - 22 6 - 10 -8.7      -7.5 336 -1.2 203 67.0 246 -11.8 328 -7.2 7
346 Kennesaw St. 0.0%   1 - 19 0 - 7 2 - 27 1 - 15 -16.4      -10.5 350 -5.9 325 70.0 150 -19.2 346 -22.2 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Liberty 1.1 89.3 9.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Florida 2.0 22.4 61.0 11.1 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 4.7 0.4 6.6 21.2 22.0 17.4 14.6 10.9 6.9 0.0
Lipscomb 5.7 0.1 1.8 9.8 14.5 18.2 19.8 20.8 15.0 0.0
NJIT 4.0 1.5 13.6 32.4 20.7 14.3 9.0 5.5 3.0
North Alabama 4.9 0.7 5.9 19.5 18.1 17.7 17.3 13.1 7.6 0.0
Stetson 4.4 0.7 9.2 23.1 22.9 18.0 14.4 8.3 3.3
Florida Gulf Coast 6.4 0.1 1.1 5.6 8.8 11.9 16.8 21.3 34.4 0.2
Kennesaw St. 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 13 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.2 6.3 18.4 37.9 35.9
North Florida 11 - 5 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.2 18.1 26.7 27.9 15.1 2.3
Jacksonville 8 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.5 11.0 20.7 26.0 22.3 11.5 3.9 0.4
Lipscomb 7 - 9 0.3 2.4 9.1 20.4 28.0 23.8 12.1 3.5 0.4
NJIT 9 - 7 0.2 1.3 5.4 12.5 22.8 26.4 19.1 9.3 2.7 0.2
North Alabama 8 - 8 0.5 4.3 13.2 23.5 25.1 19.3 9.7 3.7 0.7 0.1
Stetson 8 - 8 1.2 8.0 19.9 26.9 24.0 13.5 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6 - 10 1.7 7.6 18.3 25.6 23.6 14.9 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 1 - 15 28.3 37.1 23.3 8.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 89.3% 75.4 13.1 0.8 0.0 0.0
North Florida 22.4% 9.6 12.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NJIT 1.5% 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.7% 0.2 0.4 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 64.9% 64.9% 0.0% 13   0.1 2.6 30.8 25.1 5.9 0.5 0.0 35.1 0.0%
North Florida 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 3.9 8.0 4.2 82.7 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 4.3 95.1 0.0%
Lipscomb 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 3.5 96.5 0.0%
NJIT 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1 4.3 95.7 0.0%
North Alabama 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Stetson 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Liberty 64.9% 0.0% 64.9% 14.6% 4.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 17.3% 0.9% 16.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.9% 3.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 3.5% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 4.3% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.9% 0.9 7.1 92.9
2nd Round 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.7
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0