Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
91 Liberty 51.1%   14   3 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 5 13 - 3 +5.7      +2.8 95 +2.8 87 58.7 350 +6.5 90 0.0 1
154 North Florida 18.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 5 +0.3      +0.5 157 -0.3 164 77.8 36 +9.0 64 0.0 1
191 NJIT 11.3%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 6 -1.7      -1.9 235 +0.2 152 66.8 265 +0.2 172 0.0 1
194 Lipscomb 11.4%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 6 -1.9      -0.6 192 -1.4 198 80.5 22 -15.5 332 0.0 1
279 Florida Gulf Coast 3.7%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 9 -6.2      -4.7 307 -1.4 201 70.5 160 -14.2 326 0.0 1
302 Jacksonville 1.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 10 -8.0      -4.5 302 -3.5 284 76.1 54 -5.4 256 0.0 1
309 North Alabama 1.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 18 6 - 10 -9.3      -5.7 320 -3.6 285 74.1 83 -1.1 206 0.0 1
328 Stetson 0.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 11 -11.2      -3.5 281 -7.6 345 72.4 112 +6.4 91 0.0 1
332 Kennesaw St. 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 11 -11.4      -6.6 330 -4.8 305 70.1 171 -9.9 295 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Liberty 1.5 66.7 20.1 7.9 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Florida 2.9 21.6 28.3 21.2 13.7 7.6 4.4 2.1 1.0 0.2
NJIT 3.5 12.5 21.5 21.6 18.0 12.7 7.4 3.5 2.2 0.6
Lipscomb 3.5 12.7 21.8 19.8 18.0 12.3 7.6 4.7 2.1 1.0
Florida Gulf Coast 5.1 2.9 7.4 12.2 16.2 18.6 15.8 12.7 8.9 5.4
Jacksonville 5.9 1.5 4.2 7.4 11.8 16.3 18.3 17.0 13.8 9.7
North Alabama 6.3 0.6 3.1 5.9 9.6 13.3 16.7 19.1 17.5 14.2
Stetson 6.9 0.4 1.6 3.2 6.4 10.1 14.4 17.8 21.7 24.4
Kennesaw St. 7.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 5.5 9.2 14.2 18.8 22.9 25.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 13 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.5 5.2 9.2 13.7 18.3 20.1 19.2 9.9
North Florida 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.2 8.0 11.2 14.8 15.6 14.8 12.0 8.3 4.0 0.9
NJIT 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.7 11.7 14.5 14.3 14.2 11.1 8.2 4.3 1.5 0.4
Lipscomb 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.5 6.0 8.7 11.5 14.0 14.1 13.3 11.6 8.1 4.2 1.7 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 7 - 9 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.6 10.9 12.6 14.3 13.8 11.9 9.6 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville 6 - 10 0.4 1.8 4.2 7.9 11.6 13.7 14.4 14.3 11.8 8.3 5.6 3.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 6.3 10.3 13.7 15.2 14.2 12.1 9.6 6.6 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 11 2.0 6.8 11.0 14.0 15.1 14.4 12.4 9.6 6.9 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5 - 11 2.3 6.2 11.3 15.2 16.3 14.8 11.9 9.5 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 66.7% 53.6 10.9 2.0 0.1 0.0
North Florida 21.6% 13.0 6.9 1.5 0.1 0.0
NJIT 12.5% 7.2 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 12.7% 7.0 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 2.9% 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stetson 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 51.1% 50.8% 0.4% 14   0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.6 11.1 15.8 12.9 5.7 1.2 48.9 0.7%
North Florida 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 4.8 5.7 2.8 81.6 0.0%
NJIT 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.6 4.3 88.7 0.0%
Lipscomb 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.6 4.5 88.6 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 96.3 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.2 0.0%
North Alabama 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.2 98.4 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Liberty 51.1% 0.5% 50.9% 10.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 18.4% 1.1% 17.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 11.3% 2.1% 10.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 11.4% 2.3% 10.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 3.7% 1.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 95.1 0.2
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0