Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#316
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#276
Pace60.1#347
Improvement+2.7#64

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#297
First Shot-3.9#294
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#223
Layup/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#282
Freethrows+0.8#112
Improvement-0.9#230

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#313
First Shot-4.2#309
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks+1.3#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#346
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+3.6#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.5% 2.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 28.3% 44.0% 15.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.8% 4.1%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 49 - 1211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 331   @ Western Illinois W 77-75 44%     1 - 0 -5.7 +1.6 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2019 260   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 55-79 26%     1 - 1 -26.6 -14.6 -13.9
  Nov 18, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 51-86 1%     1 - 2 -17.4 -11.1 -7.7
  Nov 22, 2019 257   Iona L 55-60 35%     1 - 3 -10.4 -15.6 +4.7
  Nov 23, 2019 204   Monmouth W 63-55 26%     2 - 3 +5.3 -4.0 +9.9
  Nov 24, 2019 166   Western Carolina L 64-70 26%     2 - 4 -8.8 -5.3 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2019 109   @ Kent St. L 53-77 7%     2 - 5 -17.1 -14.6 -3.7
  Dec 03, 2019 299   Bethune-Cookman W 72-67 57%     3 - 5 -6.1 -3.0 -2.8
  Dec 07, 2019 292   @ VMI L 61-88 33%     3 - 6 -31.7 -8.5 -26.8
  Dec 15, 2019 327   Longwood L 72-76 64%     3 - 7 -17.0 -5.7 -11.3
  Dec 17, 2019 273   @ UNC Asheville L 76-78 28%     3 - 8 -5.4 -1.1 -4.2
  Dec 22, 2019 152   Florida International L 67-83 25%     3 - 9 -18.2 -9.6 -8.3
  Dec 30, 2019 92   @ South Carolina W 63-56 6%     4 - 9 +15.8 -1.9 +17.9
  Jan 02, 2020 255   Lipscomb L 63-66 46%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -11.2 -7.2 -4.4
  Jan 04, 2020 345   @ Kennesaw St. W 57-54 61%     5 - 10 1 - 1 -9.2 -13.8 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2020 304   Florida Gulf Coast L 62-66 OT 58%     5 - 11 1 - 2 -15.3 -6.9 -8.9
  Jan 16, 2020 289   @ North Alabama W 54-49 32%     6 - 11 2 - 2 +0.4 -15.7 +16.5
  Jan 18, 2020 254   @ Jacksonville W 64-59 25%     7 - 11 3 - 2 +2.7 +0.0 +3.1
  Jan 23, 2020 259   NJIT L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 25, 2020 65   Liberty L 51-65 9%    
  Jan 30, 2020 172   @ North Florida L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 01, 2020 255   @ Lipscomb L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 06, 2020 304   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 59-63 36%    
  Feb 13, 2020 289   North Alabama W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 345   Kennesaw St. W 67-58 79%    
  Feb 20, 2020 259   @ NJIT L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 22, 2020 65   @ Liberty L 48-68 3%    
  Feb 27, 2020 172   North Florida L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 29, 2020 254   Jacksonville L 59-60 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 8.8 2.3 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 10.8 4.3 0.2 17.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 9.3 8.1 0.4 18.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 7.0 10.6 1.3 19.6 7th
8th 0.9 5.5 8.4 2.3 0.0 17.1 8th
9th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 9th
Total 1.2 6.6 16.4 24.0 23.5 16.1 8.2 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-4 8.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.0
9-7 8.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.1
8-8 16.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.0
7-9 23.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.3
6-10 24.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.9
5-11 16.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-12 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-13 1.2% 1.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%