Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#250
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#271
Pace65.3#284
Improvement-2.2#273

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#321
First Shot-5.7#321
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks-0.6#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#253
Freethrows-1.4#275
Improvement-2.3#301

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot+2.3#99
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#273
Layups/Dunks+2.3#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#125
Freethrows+1.2#107
Improvement+0.1#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.7% 19.0% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.5% 61.6% 30.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 2.9%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 2.4%
First Round2.8% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 57-76 6%     0 - 1 -6.3 -10.0 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2019 160   Bowling Green L 59-75 31%     0 - 2 -15.7 -15.4 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2019 282   @ Umass Lowell W 80-78 47%     1 - 2 -2.0 +7.1 -9.0
  Nov 16, 2019 202   Dartmouth W 57-37 42%     2 - 2 +17.3 -6.5 +27.0
  Nov 17, 2019 256   Merrimack L 44-54 52%     2 - 3 -15.4 -18.5 +0.8
  Nov 21, 2019 169   Western Carolina L 94-96 2OT 44%     2 - 4 -5.2 -4.9 +0.2
  Nov 25, 2019 277   @ Campbell L 57-62 45%     2 - 5 -8.5 -13.2 +4.3
  Nov 30, 2019 287   @ N.C. A&T W 61-45 48%     3 - 5 +11.7 -4.5 +18.0
  Dec 04, 2019 26   @ Marquette L 56-75 4%     3 - 6 -3.3 -12.4 +9.8
  Dec 07, 2019 301   Bethune-Cookman W 82-60 73%     4 - 6 +10.9 -3.8 +12.8
  Dec 18, 2019 324   @ Presbyterian W 81-58 59%     5 - 6 +15.9 +9.6 +8.1
  Dec 20, 2019 70   @ Clemson L 39-68 9%     5 - 7 -18.6 -20.8 -1.4
  Dec 30, 2019 319   South Carolina St. L 52-58 77%     5 - 8 -18.5 -26.7 +7.8
  Jan 02, 2020 280   @ North Alabama L 57-62 46%     5 - 9 0 - 1 -8.8 -19.0 +10.6
  Jan 09, 2020 259   NJIT W 68-52 64%     6 - 9 1 - 1 +7.6 -2.1 +11.3
  Jan 11, 2020 68   @ Liberty L 37-54 8%     6 - 10 1 - 2 -6.6 -20.4 +9.7
  Jan 16, 2020 158   North Florida L 68-75 41%     6 - 11 1 - 3 -9.5 -9.0 -0.7
  Jan 18, 2020 314   Stetson L 59-64 76%     6 - 12 1 - 4 -17.2 -14.9 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2020 266   @ Lipscomb W 89-85 OT 42%     7 - 12 2 - 4 +1.1 +4.6 -3.8
  Jan 25, 2020 345   @ Kennesaw St. W 66-58 77%    
  Jan 30, 2020 305   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-57 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 280   North Alabama W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 06, 2020 68   Liberty L 53-62 20%    
  Feb 08, 2020 259   @ NJIT L 62-64 41%    
  Feb 13, 2020 158   @ North Florida L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 20, 2020 266   Lipscomb W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 22, 2020 345   Kennesaw St. W 69-55 90%    
  Feb 27, 2020 305   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 61-60 53%    
  Feb 29, 2020 314   @ Stetson W 61-60 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.9 12.1 6.5 1.4 0.0 24.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 12.9 5.9 0.5 0.0 22.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 9.8 6.8 0.4 17.8 5th
6th 0.2 5.2 7.8 0.5 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 6.6 1.6 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.0 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.4 14.4 22.0 24.1 18.7 8.5 2.9 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 8.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 2.9% 11.9% 11.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.5
10-6 8.5% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.1 0.5 7.8
9-7 18.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 17.8
8-8 24.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.9 23.2
7-9 22.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.7 21.3
6-10 14.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 14.2
5-11 6.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-12 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-13 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.6 96.0 0.0%