Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#80
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#69
Pace58.7#351
Improvement+1.0#61

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#76
First Shot+2.1#106
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#94
Layup/Dunks+1.8#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#65
Freethrows-1.2#237
Improvement+0.7#68

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+2.1#109
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#139
Layups/Dunks+0.8#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#128
Freethrows-1.3#240
Improvement+0.3#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.0% 57.8% 46.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.6% 98.6%
Conference Champion 74.8% 75.8% 62.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round56.7% 57.6% 46.7%
Second Round12.8% 13.2% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.0% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 26 - 3
Quad 418 - 124 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 129   Radford W 66-60 77%     1 - 0 +5.1 +0.6 +5.3
  Nov 10, 2019 349   Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-55 99%     2 - 0 -9.2 +9.7 -17.1
  Nov 12, 2019 326   South Carolina St. W 65-39 96%     3 - 0 +12.2 -9.6 +24.9
  Nov 16, 2019 240   @ East Carolina W 77-57 78%     4 - 0 +18.7 +13.8 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2019 270   Navy W 69-54 93%    
  Nov 22, 2019 306   Morgan St. W 76-60 94%    
  Dec 08, 2019 171   Grand Canyon W 69-62 76%    
  Dec 14, 2019 118   @ Vanderbilt W 66-65 54%    
  Dec 20, 2019 161   Towson W 67-60 73%    
  Dec 29, 2019 34   @ LSU L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 02, 2020 290   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 04, 2020 187   @ NJIT W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 09, 2020 299   North Alabama W 72-54 94%    
  Jan 11, 2020 273   Jacksonville W 70-54 92%    
  Jan 18, 2020 218   Lipscomb W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 23, 2020 153   @ North Florida W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 25, 2020 338   @ Stetson W 74-58 92%    
  Jan 30, 2020 330   Kennesaw St. W 75-54 97%    
  Feb 01, 2020 290   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-56 93%    
  Feb 06, 2020 273   @ Jacksonville W 67-57 81%    
  Feb 08, 2020 299   @ North Alabama W 69-57 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 187   NJIT W 69-58 83%    
  Feb 20, 2020 153   North Florida W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 338   Stetson W 77-55 97%    
  Feb 27, 2020 330   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-57 90%    
  Feb 29, 2020 218   @ Lipscomb W 72-65 71%    
Projected Record 22 - 4 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.8 13.1 21.5 21.4 13.2 74.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.1 4.3 1.4 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.4 7.1 11.7 17.4 22.9 21.4 13.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 13.2    13.2
15-1 100.0% 21.4    20.8 0.6
14-2 93.7% 21.5    18.2 3.3 0.0
13-3 74.9% 13.1    8.4 4.3 0.5
12-4 40.5% 4.8    1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1
11-5 12.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 74.8% 74.8 62.5 10.7 1.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 13.2% 80.1% 77.0% 3.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.1 3.9 1.6 0.2 2.6 13.4%
15-1 21.4% 69.9% 69.6% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 6.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 6.4 1.2%
14-2 22.9% 59.8% 59.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 4.3 6.1 2.9 0.3 9.2 0.4%
13-3 17.4% 51.7% 51.7% 13.4 0.0 1.4 3.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 8.4
12-4 11.7% 41.6% 41.6% 13.8 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.9
11-5 7.1% 32.8% 32.8% 14.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 4.8
10-6 3.4% 28.1% 28.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.4
9-7 1.8% 23.5% 23.5% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
8-8 0.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
7-9 0.3% 19.7% 19.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-10 0.1% 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 57.0% 56.4% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 3.7 16.5 18.9 10.7 3.6 0.4 43.0 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 6.4 0.5 1.0 5.9 15.0 19.5 22.2 8.8 6.4 7.4 3.0 7.0 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 46.4% 9.5 3.0 6.0 6.6 6.0 6.0 9.6 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 52.1% 10.9 4.3 4.3 34.2 9.4