Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#85
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Pace56.6#352
Improvement-4.8#333

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#137
First Shot+2.9#86
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#289
Layup/Dunks+2.1#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#123
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement-3.7#332

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#60
First Shot+1.5#111
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#1
Layups/Dunks+0.0#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-1.0#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.7% 65.7% 58.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 88.9% 89.1% 63.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round65.7% 65.7% 58.1%
Second Round15.2% 15.2% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.5% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 34 - 15 - 2
Quad 422 - 227 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 168   Radford W 66-60 82%     1 - 0 +2.7 -0.8 +4.4
  Nov 10, 2019 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-55 99%     2 - 0 -11.6 +1.6 -11.4
  Nov 12, 2019 324   South Carolina St. W 65-39 95%     3 - 0 +13.3 -9.3 +25.6
  Nov 16, 2019 208   @ East Carolina W 77-57 74%     4 - 0 +19.9 +14.9 +7.8
  Nov 19, 2019 222   Navy W 55-48 89%     5 - 0 +0.4 -7.8 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2019 322   Morgan St. W 89-48 93%     6 - 0 +31.3 +12.0 +19.5
  Nov 23, 2019 245   Rice W 71-59 86%     7 - 0 +7.1 -3.9 +11.5
  Nov 24, 2019 225   UMKC W 62-49 83%     8 - 0 +9.2 -1.8 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2019 226   Grand Canyon W 70-61 83%     9 - 0 +5.2 +2.2 +4.0
  Dec 14, 2019 163   @ Vanderbilt W 61-56 63%     10 - 0 +8.0 -6.6 +15.0
  Dec 20, 2019 161   Towson W 66-54 73%     11 - 0 +12.2 +0.3 +13.2
  Dec 21, 2019 81   Akron W 80-67 49%     12 - 0 +19.7 +18.5 +2.7
  Dec 29, 2019 32   @ LSU L 57-74 21%     12 - 1 -1.9 -3.8 -0.7
  Jan 02, 2020 310   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 59-46 87%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +7.2 +0.3 +10.0
  Jan 04, 2020 257   @ NJIT W 65-38 80%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +24.6 -0.8 +28.8
  Jan 09, 2020 284   North Alabama W 63-52 93%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +1.3 -5.3 +7.7
  Jan 11, 2020 238   Jacksonville W 54-37 90%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +9.7 -6.2 +20.0
  Jan 18, 2020 251   Lipscomb W 67-60 91%     17 - 1 5 - 0 -1.0 -1.9 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2020 171   @ North Florida L 70-71 65%     17 - 2 5 - 1 +1.4 +2.9 -1.6
  Jan 25, 2020 303   @ Stetson L 43-48 87%     17 - 3 5 - 2 -10.5 -19.2 +7.3
  Jan 30, 2020 345   Kennesaw St. W 72-46 99%    
  Feb 01, 2020 310   Florida Gulf Coast W 66-48 96%    
  Feb 06, 2020 238   @ Jacksonville W 61-53 76%    
  Feb 08, 2020 284   @ North Alabama W 64-54 83%    
  Feb 15, 2020 257   NJIT W 67-52 92%    
  Feb 20, 2020 171   North Florida W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 22, 2020 303   Stetson W 66-48 95%    
  Feb 27, 2020 345   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-49 97%    
  Feb 29, 2020 251   @ Lipscomb W 69-60 79%    
Projected Record 25 - 4 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 14.8 36.1 35.7 88.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.6 1.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.0 19.4 37.2 35.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 35.7    35.7
13-3 97.1% 36.1    30.5 5.6
12-4 76.1% 14.8    8.7 5.7 0.4
11-5 37.2% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1
10-6 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 88.9% 88.9 75.5 12.4 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 35.7% 71.9% 71.9% 12.1 0.1 2.4 19.2 4.0 0.1 10.0
13-3 37.2% 64.2% 64.2% 12.6 0.0 10.3 11.9 1.8 0.0 13.3
12-4 19.4% 61.9% 61.9% 13.0 2.3 7.1 2.4 0.1 7.4
11-5 6.0% 54.2% 54.2% 13.4 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 2.8
10-6 1.5% 51.4% 51.4% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7
9-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 65.7% 65.7% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 2.4 32.0 24.9 6.0 0.4 34.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.7% 100.0% 12.1 0.3 9.2 74.7 15.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3%