Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Kansas 97.1%   1   2 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 7 13 - 5 +19.7      +10.6 4 +9.1 8 73.7 85 +12.3 44 0.0 1
11 Texas Tech 88.4%   3   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +16.2      +7.0 27 +9.3 7 71.0 148 +5.6 102 0.0 1
17 Baylor 69.8%   5   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +13.9      +7.2 25 +6.7 31 76.7 48 +5.0 111 0.0 1
21 Texas 77.8%   4   4 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 9 - 9 +13.1      +5.1 53 +8.0 14 64.3 308 +22.4 5 0.0 1
29 Oklahoma 69.1%   5   3 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +12.3      +5.8 39 +6.6 34 72.4 114 +18.8 12 0.0 1
36 West Virginia 59.8%   5   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +11.3      +7.8 16 +3.5 73 73.7 87 +18.1 15 0.0 1
42 Iowa St. 43.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +10.9      +7.4 22 +3.5 74 71.2 139 +3.5 131 0.0 1
48 Oklahoma St. 47.4%   11   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +10.2      +4.5 66 +5.7 47 68.6 211 +13.0 38 0.0 1
51 Kansas St. 42.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +9.7      +0.3 167 +9.4 5 60.8 342 +12.9 39 0.0 1
52 TCU 40.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +9.4      +5.1 51 +4.3 65 71.3 138 +6.5 94 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 2.1 52.5 20.4 10.9 6.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3
Texas Tech 3.4 22.9 22.0 16.0 11.9 8.8 6.6 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.1
Baylor 4.5 11.7 14.6 14.6 13.3 11.5 10.1 8.5 7.0 5.3 3.5
Texas 4.9 8.6 12.2 13.7 13.5 12.3 11.1 9.8 8.1 6.2 4.4
Oklahoma 5.3 7.0 10.6 12.1 12.3 12.2 11.5 10.5 9.5 8.1 6.1
West Virginia 5.8 5.2 8.2 9.8 10.7 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.3 10.8 9.3
Iowa St. 6.1 4.1 7.1 9.0 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.2 12.3 11.9 10.2
Oklahoma St. 6.4 3.1 5.7 7.7 9.5 10.7 11.7 12.5 13.1 13.0 12.9
Kansas St. 6.7 2.6 4.8 6.8 8.4 9.7 11.3 12.6 14.1 14.7 15.0
TCU 6.7 2.9 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.2 10.6 11.6 13.1 14.9 17.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 6.0 8.4 11.1 13.5 15.1 14.4 11.9 7.6 2.9
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.7 7.1 9.2 11.2 12.3 12.8 12.1 10.1 7.3 4.4 2.0 0.5
Baylor 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.3 8.7 10.2 11.5 12.4 11.8 10.1 7.9 5.7 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2
Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.2 7.5 9.8 11.6 12.4 12.3 11.1 9.1 6.8 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Oklahoma 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.7 8.7 10.6 11.8 12.2 11.2 10.1 7.9 5.8 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
West Virginia 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.0 8.7 10.1 11.6 11.9 11.7 10.1 8.3 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.3 6.7 9.3 11.1 12.2 12.1 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.4 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.4 7.8 10.1 11.8 12.5 12.1 10.8 8.7 6.4 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.5 6.3 9.0 10.9 12.5 12.7 11.6 9.8 8.0 5.4 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
TCU 7 - 11 0.6 2.1 4.3 7.0 9.4 10.9 11.7 11.6 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.6 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 52.5% 41.1 9.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 22.9% 15.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Baylor 11.7% 7.3 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 8.6% 5.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7.0% 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 5.2% 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 4.1% 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 3.1% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 2.6% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 2.9% 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 97.1% 36.6% 60.5% 1   39.2 23.2 13.0 8.1 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 95.5%
Texas Tech 88.4% 18.1% 70.3% 3   11.7 13.4 13.1 11.2 10.3 8.3 6.9 5.5 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.6 85.8%
Baylor 69.8% 10.4% 59.4% 5   4.2 6.1 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.4 7.2 4.7 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 30.2 66.3%
Texas 77.8% 8.2% 69.6% 4   4.3 7.2 10.8 10.5 11.0 10.1 7.6 5.9 4.5 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 22.2 75.8%
Oklahoma 69.1% 6.9% 62.3% 5   3.1 5.5 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.3 7.5 6.4 4.8 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 30.9 66.9%
West Virginia 59.8% 5.3% 54.6% 5   2.5 3.9 6.1 6.6 7.5 7.9 7.1 6.2 5.1 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 40.2 57.6%
Iowa St. 43.6% 4.5% 39.0% 0.8 1.6 3.2 3.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.4 4.6 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.4 40.9%
Oklahoma St. 47.4% 3.6% 43.7% 11   0.9 1.9 3.7 4.3 5.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.0 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.6 45.4%
Kansas St. 42.0% 3.1% 38.9% 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.2 5.7 5.8 4.9 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 58.0 40.1%
TCU 40.9% 3.3% 37.5% 1.1 1.9 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.8 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.1 38.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kansas 97.1% 0.2% 97.1% 89.6% 66.5% 44.0% 26.8% 15.9% 9.0%
Texas Tech 88.4% 1.3% 87.8% 70.7% 43.2% 23.3% 11.9% 5.9% 2.9%
Baylor 69.8% 1.5% 69.2% 50.1% 26.4% 12.7% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2%
Texas 77.8% 1.8% 76.9% 54.1% 27.1% 11.7% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Oklahoma 69.1% 2.1% 68.1% 46.5% 22.5% 9.5% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
West Virginia 59.8% 2.2% 58.7% 38.3% 17.4% 7.4% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Iowa St. 43.6% 1.9% 42.7% 26.9% 11.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Oklahoma St. 47.4% 2.5% 46.1% 28.0% 11.5% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Kansas St. 42.0% 2.6% 40.6% 23.7% 9.3% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
TCU 40.9% 1.8% 39.9% 24.4% 10.0% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.2 3.0 16.8 35.3 31.6 11.4 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.3 3.8 18.8 35.6 29.9 10.2 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.5 0.0 0.4 3.5 15.0 30.4 30.6 15.6 4.0 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.6% 2.5 2.4 16.0 34.6 31.3 12.8 2.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 80.8% 1.3 19.2 44.4 28.8 6.9 0.7 0.0
Final Four 52.9% 0.6 47.1 43.4 9.0 0.6 0.0
Final Game 30.0% 0.3 70.0 28.3 1.7
Champion 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.7