Kansas
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#49
Pace73.7#85
Improvement+0.7#80

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#4
First Shot+8.7#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#82
Layup/Dunks+3.9#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#41
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+1.1#32

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#8
First Shot+7.8#16
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#102
Layups/Dunks+7.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-0.4#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.2% 10.5% 6.7%
#1 Seed 38.3% 39.5% 21.3%
Top 2 Seed 60.6% 62.1% 40.1%
Top 4 Seed 82.5% 83.7% 65.8%
Top 6 Seed 91.3% 92.1% 80.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.2% 97.8% 89.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.6% 96.5% 84.8%
Average Seed 2.6 2.5 3.5
.500 or above 98.3% 98.9% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 96.4% 88.6%
Conference Champion 51.5% 52.5% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 3.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 1.8%
First Round97.2% 97.8% 89.8%
Second Round88.7% 89.6% 77.6%
Sweet Sixteen65.7% 66.9% 49.7%
Elite Eight42.7% 43.6% 30.3%
Final Four26.1% 26.5% 21.1%
Championship Game15.1% 15.6% 7.9%
National Champion8.3% 8.7% 3.1%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 211 - 7
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 33 - 020 - 7
Quad 43 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 2   Duke L 66-68 48%     0 - 1 +18.1 -3.9 +22.3
  Nov 08, 2019 92   UNC Greensboro W 74-62 94%     1 - 1 +14.2 +7.7 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2019 267   Monmouth W 112-57 99%     2 - 1 +46.3 +27.9 +14.2
  Nov 19, 2019 74   East Tennessee St. W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 07, 2019 29   Colorado W 78-68 84%    
  Dec 10, 2019 259   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-57 99.7%   
  Dec 14, 2019 266   UMKC W 85-57 99.6%   
  Dec 21, 2019 14   @ Villanova W 73-72 56%    
  Dec 29, 2019 83   @ Stanford W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 04, 2020 39   West Virginia W 84-73 85%    
  Jan 08, 2020 44   @ Iowa St. W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 11, 2020 18   Baylor W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 14, 2020 28   @ Oklahoma W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 18, 2020 21   @ Texas W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 21, 2020 50   Kansas St. W 71-58 86%    
  Jan 25, 2020 19   Tennessee W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 27, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 11   Texas Tech W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 03, 2020 21   Texas W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 08, 2020 53   @ TCU W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 12, 2020 39   @ West Virginia W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 28   Oklahoma W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 17, 2020 44   Iowa St. W 83-71 84%    
  Feb 22, 2020 18   @ Baylor W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 24, 2020 49   Oklahoma St. W 78-65 85%    
  Feb 29, 2020 50   @ Kansas St. W 68-61 72%    
  Mar 04, 2020 53   TCU W 82-69 87%    
  Mar 07, 2020 11   @ Texas Tech W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 4.9 11.0 11.9 11.5 7.5 2.2 51.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 6.5 6.2 4.3 1.2 0.3 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.1 1.4 0.3 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.3 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 2.2 4.4 5.7 9.9 13.2 12.5 15.6 13.1 11.8 7.5 2.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 100.0% 7.5    7.4 0.1
16-2 97.1% 11.5    10.6 0.8
15-3 91.2% 11.9    10.2 1.8 0.0
14-4 70.6% 11.0    6.3 4.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 39.2% 4.9    2.1 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 17.3% 2.3    0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3
11-7 2.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.5% 51.5 39.4 10.2 1.6 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 100.0% 68.3% 31.7% 1.0 2.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.5% 100.0% 67.3% 32.7% 1.1 6.7 0.8 100.0%
16-2 11.8% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.2 9.5 2.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 13.1% 100.0% 44.6% 55.4% 1.4 8.3 4.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 15.6% 100.0% 41.1% 58.9% 1.7 7.1 6.3 1.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 2.2 3.2 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.3 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 3.2 1.2 3.1 3.8 3.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.9% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 4.2 0.2 0.8 3.0 2.4 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
10-8 5.7% 97.7% 15.4% 82.3% 5.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.3%
9-9 4.4% 89.5% 12.7% 76.8% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 88.0%
8-10 2.2% 74.5% 5.6% 68.9% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 73.0%
7-11 0.9% 25.0% 25.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 25.0%
6-12 0.7% 11.5% 11.5% 9.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 11.5%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.2% 36.7% 60.6% 2.6 38.3 22.3 13.3 8.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.8 95.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3