Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 Northeastern 21.3%   15   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +1.8      +4.2 70 -2.4 242 65.9 283 +5.0 110 0.0 1
140 College of Charleston 20.2%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.5      +2.1 110 -0.6 178 64.2 313 +2.7 137 0.0 1
158 Towson 14.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 +0.1      +0.9 146 -0.8 183 62.9 331 -3.8 230 0.0 1
165 William & Mary 12.7%   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 -0.4      +1.7 126 -2.0 226 70.8 153 +14.1 31 0.0 1
188 Hofstra 9.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.6      +4.0 74 -5.5 321 68.2 222 -11.7 311 0.0 1
192 Delaware 9.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1.8      -1.2 214 -0.6 179 63.2 327 +11.6 47 0.0 1
238 James Madison 4.9%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.9      -1.8 233 -2.1 229 78.8 29 +7.0 83 0.0 1
239 Drexel 4.6%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.0      -2.0 240 -2.0 220 72.1 122 -1.1 199 0.0 1
267 UNC Wilmington 3.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -5.5      +0.6 154 -6.1 331 72.5 107 +2.4 142 0.0 1
313 Elon 0.7%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -9.6      -5.5 317 -4.2 295 70.0 175 -0.4 183 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 3.2 29.5 19.3 14.6 11.0 8.7 6.5 4.7 3.2 1.9 0.6
College of Charleston 3.3 27.2 18.9 14.7 11.4 9.1 6.9 5.3 3.6 2.1 0.8
Towson 4.0 18.4 16.1 14.5 12.7 10.9 9.1 7.4 5.7 3.7 1.6
William & Mary 4.2 15.5 15.4 14.2 13.4 11.7 9.9 8.1 6.2 3.9 1.8
Hofstra 4.8 10.8 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.2 11.5 10.5 8.7 6.3 3.2
Delaware 4.9 10.4 11.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 11.6 10.7 9.0 6.9 3.4
James Madison 6.0 5.1 6.8 8.1 9.6 10.7 12.0 13.2 13.6 12.5 8.3
Drexel 6.0 4.3 6.4 8.2 9.7 11.7 12.8 13.4 13.9 12.4 7.2
UNC Wilmington 6.8 2.7 4.4 5.8 7.3 9.0 11.0 13.4 15.5 17.5 13.5
Elon 8.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.6 8.6 13.1 21.6 42.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.2 8.4 10.4 12.4 13.0 12.8 11.0 8.4 5.4 2.4 0.6
College of Charleston 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.5 8.9 10.7 12.7 12.9 12.6 10.2 7.9 4.8 2.1 0.5
Towson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.5 6.5 8.9 10.8 12.2 12.5 11.8 10.0 7.8 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3
William & Mary 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 5.1 7.4 9.4 11.6 12.8 12.8 11.5 9.5 6.7 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.1
Hofstra 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.8 7.3 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.5 11.2 9.3 7.3 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
Delaware 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.2 7.5 9.8 11.2 12.3 12.1 11.0 9.2 6.9 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
James Madison 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.5 8.9 10.9 12.1 12.2 11.2 9.7 7.7 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Drexel 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.4 9.0 11.1 12.5 12.8 12.0 10.1 7.8 5.4 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 4.0 6.6 9.4 11.5 12.4 12.6 11.2 9.6 7.6 5.5 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 5 - 13 3.1 8.3 12.6 14.7 14.7 13.3 10.9 8.3 5.8 3.8 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 29.5% 20.3 7.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 27.2% 18.4 6.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Towson 18.4% 12.0 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 15.5% 9.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Hofstra 10.8% 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Delaware 10.4% 6.3 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
James Madison 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 4.3% 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 2.7% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 21.3% 21.1% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.4 6.2 6.0 3.8 1.0 78.7 0.2%
College of Charleston 20.2% 20.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.7 5.8 3.9 1.3 79.8 0.1%
Towson 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.3 3.4 1.4 85.6 0.0%
William & Mary 12.7% 12.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 3.9 2.4 0.5 87.3 0.1%
Hofstra 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.1 3.0 90.4 0.0%
Delaware 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.5 1.0 90.9 0.0%
James Madison 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.0 95.1 0.0%
Drexel 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.5 95.4 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 97.0 0.0%
Elon 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northeastern 21.3% 0.4% 21.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 20.2% 0.4% 20.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 14.4% 0.5% 14.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 12.7% 0.2% 12.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 9.6% 1.4% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 9.1% 0.3% 8.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 4.9% 0.4% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.6% 0.7% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.0% 0.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 97.8% 1.0 2.2 97.5 0.2
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0