Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
129 Northeastern 21.5%   16   11 - 10 5 - 4 17 - 13 11 - 7 +2.2      +3.3 82 -1.1 201 65.8 272 -2.0 197 -2.0 7
134 College of Charleston 21.3%   12 - 8 6 - 3 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.9      +2.8 98 -0.9 194 64.3 303 +3.0 123 +1.0 4
149 Hofstra 18.0%   14 - 7 6 - 3 20 - 10 12 - 6 +1.1      +2.5 108 -1.4 210 70.2 147 +2.0 137 +1.9 2
160 Towson 14.7%   11 - 9 6 - 3 17 - 13 11 - 7 +0.2      +0.5 167 -0.3 173 63.6 314 +0.4 163 +1.0 3
174 William & Mary 12.8%   14 - 7 7 - 2 19 - 11 12 - 6 -0.6      +1.7 127 -2.3 233 69.2 182 +3.3 117 +5.6 1
192 Delaware 6.7%   14 - 7 5 - 4 19 - 11 10 - 8 -2.0      +0.9 159 -2.9 256 68.0 219 +2.2 134 -0.4 5
223 Drexel 3.6%   11 - 10 5 - 4 15 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -2.0 232 -1.8 223 69.5 166 -1.4 192 -1.0 6
275 James Madison 0.8%   7 - 12 1 - 8 10 - 18 4 - 14 -6.5      -1.9 227 -4.6 306 82.1 11 -5.7 261 -13.6 10
302 UNC Wilmington 0.4%   4 - 15 2 - 7 7 - 21 5 - 13 -8.3      -5.0 305 -3.4 270 68.0 220 -8.8 305 -8.7 8
308 Elon 0.2%   3 - 16 2 - 7 5 - 23 4 - 14 -8.7      -2.8 257 -5.9 328 67.2 241 -13.1 337 -9.9 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 3.6 14.0 16.8 18.4 17.5 15.6 11.8 5.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 2.7 31.1 23.3 17.5 12.6 8.7 5.0 1.7 0.0
Hofstra 2.8 29.7 22.1 17.5 13.0 9.4 5.8 2.4 0.0
Towson 3.3 19.9 18.6 17.5 16.4 14.0 9.6 3.9 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 2.3 42.2 22.6 14.1 9.5 6.8 3.4 1.3
Delaware 4.8 5.1 8.0 10.6 14.8 19.0 23.2 18.0 1.2 0.1
Drexel 5.7 1.7 3.2 6.2 9.8 15.2 24.1 36.6 2.9 0.2 0.0
James Madison 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 34.4 32.2 28.9
UNC Wilmington 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 5.4 45.2 30.6 17.8
Elon 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.2 35.2 33.5 27.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 11 - 7 0.2 1.2 4.6 12.1 19.9 26.1 22.0 11.1 2.8
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.1 12.0 20.7 26.8 21.3 10.4 2.3
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 13.3 21.9 24.7 20.1 10.4 2.1
Towson 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.2 9.6 18.2 24.5 23.0 14.3 5.8 0.9
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.1 17.5 24.6 23.5 14.6 5.6 1.0
Delaware 10 - 8 0.2 1.5 6.0 13.9 20.8 24.4 19.0 10.2 3.3 0.6
Drexel 9 - 9 0.9 4.4 13.2 21.3 24.2 19.5 11.3 4.1 1.1 0.1
James Madison 4 - 14 1.9 9.1 21.2 26.7 21.5 12.9 5.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
UNC Wilmington 5 - 13 3.8 15.3 26.9 25.8 17.6 7.8 2.3 0.3 0.1
Elon 4 - 14 7.7 21.3 27.6 23.1 13.4 5.3 1.2 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 14.0% 4.8 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 31.1% 15.5 9.7 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 29.7% 14.3 9.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 19.9% 8.1 7.0 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 42.2% 23.0 12.7 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Delaware 5.1% 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Drexel 1.7% 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison
UNC Wilmington
Elon


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.7 6.5 9.5 3.7 78.5 0.0%
College of Charleston 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 7.8 8.6 2.6 0.2 78.7 0.0%
Hofstra 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.1 8.4 4.4 0.5 82.0 0.0%
Towson 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.7 6.2 5.7 1.0 85.3 0.0%
William & Mary 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 3.8 0.3 87.2 0.0%
Delaware 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.8 0.6 93.3 0.0%
Drexel 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 96.4 0.0%
James Madison 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.2 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Elon 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northeastern 21.5% 0.6% 21.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 21.3% 0.0% 21.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 18.0% 0.0% 17.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 14.7% 0.1% 14.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 12.8% 0.0% 12.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 3.6% 0.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8
2nd Round 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0