Towson
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#233
Pace63.0#328
Improvement-0.7#270

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#137
First Shot+0.8#141
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-4.9#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#110
Freethrows-0.4#193
Improvement+0.0#186

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#200
First Shot-4.1#286
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#42
Layups/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#279
Freethrows-2.0#276
Improvement-0.6#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 20.1% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 59.4% 81.1% 56.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 85.0% 72.3%
Conference Champion 18.8% 28.3% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.4% 3.0%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round14.2% 20.1% 13.3%
Second Round1.3% 2.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Neutral) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 258   George Washington W 72-58 78%     1 - 0 +5.9 +1.3 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2019 110   Kent St. L 80-84 OT 49%     1 - 1 -3.8 -2.9 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2019 29   @ Florida L 60-66 8%     1 - 2 +9.2 +3.1 +5.6
  Nov 21, 2019 33   Xavier L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 01, 2019 271   @ Cornell W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 04, 2019 306   @ Morgan St. W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 07, 2019 79   @ Vermont L 59-69 19%    
  Dec 10, 2019 208   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 66-61 69%    
  Dec 20, 2019 80   Liberty L 60-67 27%    
  Dec 28, 2019 146   Northeastern W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 30, 2019 192   Hofstra W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 02, 2020 140   @ College of Charleston L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 04, 2020 284   @ UNC Wilmington W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 09, 2020 259   Drexel W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 11, 2020 181   Delaware W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 18, 2020 238   James Madison W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 23, 2020 311   @ Elon W 71-64 71%    
  Jan 25, 2020 151   @ William & Mary L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 30, 2020 284   UNC Wilmington W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2020 140   College of Charleston W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 06, 2020 181   @ Delaware L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 08, 2020 259   @ Drexel W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 15, 2020 238   @ James Madison W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 20, 2020 151   William & Mary W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 22, 2020 311   Elon W 74-61 86%    
  Feb 27, 2020 192   @ Hofstra L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 01, 2020 146   @ Northeastern L 68-72 36%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.3 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.2 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.3 7.3 9.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 11.4 10.5 8.1 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
16-2 99.1% 2.6    2.4 0.2
15-3 90.0% 4.5    3.5 0.9 0.0
14-4 66.0% 5.3    3.0 2.0 0.3
13-5 34.3% 3.6    1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 9.6% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 11.9 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 64.4% 60.3% 4.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.3%
17-1 1.2% 41.0% 40.3% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.1%
16-2 2.7% 40.6% 40.6% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.0% 37.0% 37.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.1
14-4 8.1% 30.0% 30.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 5.7
13-5 10.5% 23.9% 23.9% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 8.0
12-6 11.4% 17.2% 17.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 9.4
11-7 12.5% 12.8% 12.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 10.9
10-8 11.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 10.5
9-9 10.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 10.0
8-10 9.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.8
7-11 7.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1
6-12 4.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.5 3.4 1.6 85.5 0.0%