Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#199
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#182
Pace70.2#151
Improvement+2.1#89

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#212
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#112
Layup/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#206
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#66
Layups/Dunks-8.2#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#21
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement+2.3#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.3% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 66.6% 84.7% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 91.9% 72.1%
Conference Champion 4.0% 8.9% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round5.6% 7.2% 5.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 413 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 83   @ Temple L 62-70 13%     0 - 1 +1.3 -5.6 +7.4
  Nov 08, 2019 289   Niagara W 72-64 77%     1 - 1 -2.4 -9.4 +7.0
  Nov 10, 2019 206   Abilene Christian W 86-83 OT 62%     2 - 1 -2.7 +1.6 -4.7
  Nov 13, 2019 32   @ Rutgers L 57-62 6%     2 - 2 +9.7 -2.1 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2019 139   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-82 25%     2 - 3 -10.5 -12.7 +4.5
  Nov 20, 2019 249   Bryant W 86-74 69%     3 - 3 +4.2 +8.3 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2019 300   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 60-85 61%     3 - 4 -30.5 -12.4 -19.2
  Dec 04, 2019 176   Princeton W 82-76 53%     4 - 4 +2.7 +3.1 -0.6
  Dec 07, 2019 173   La Salle L 63-71 52%     4 - 5 -11.2 -8.4 -2.9
  Dec 15, 2019 113   @ South Florida L 61-81 19%     4 - 6 -13.2 -1.7 -12.9
  Dec 20, 2019 237   Quinnipiac W 72-63 56%     5 - 6 +4.8 -0.2 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2019 284   Norfolk St. W 53-49 67%     6 - 6 -3.0 -15.3 +12.7
  Dec 28, 2019 126   College of Charleston L 65-76 41%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -11.2 -7.0 -4.7
  Dec 30, 2019 313   UNC Wilmington W 71-66 82%     7 - 7 1 - 1 -7.1 -6.1 -1.0
  Jan 03, 2020 202   Delaware W 61-55 61%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.5 -10.1 +11.3
  Jan 09, 2020 179   @ Towson L 73-89 32%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -13.8 +3.0 -17.3
  Jan 11, 2020 266   @ James Madison W 78-71 52%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +3.9 -4.6 +7.9
  Jan 16, 2020 307   Elon W 63-41 81%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +10.3 -15.1 +26.0
  Jan 18, 2020 163   William & Mary W 84-57 50%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +24.3 +16.3 +10.7
  Jan 23, 2020 140   @ Northeastern L 67-74 24%    
  Jan 25, 2020 146   @ Hofstra L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 01, 2020 202   @ Delaware L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 06, 2020 266   James Madison W 81-75 72%    
  Feb 08, 2020 179   Towson W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 13, 2020 163   @ William & Mary L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 307   @ Elon W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 20, 2020 146   Hofstra L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 140   Northeastern L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 27, 2020 313   @ UNC Wilmington W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 29, 2020 126   @ College of Charleston L 66-74 22%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.9 5.1 0.7 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.8 8.8 1.7 0.0 17.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 7.1 11.5 3.2 0.1 23.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.9 10.1 3.7 0.2 23.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.7 1.5 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.7 14.0 19.4 21.7 17.8 11.0 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 74.8% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 35.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 9.5% 9.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 27.0% 27.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.6% 16.3% 16.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-5 5.0% 12.6% 12.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.4
12-6 11.0% 9.2% 9.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.0
11-7 17.8% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 16.5
10-8 21.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 20.5
9-9 19.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 18.6
8-10 14.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 13.6
7-11 6.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.6
6-12 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 1.4 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%