Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#129
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#197
Pace65.8#272
Improvement+0.7#144

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#82
First Shot+5.3#42
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#309
Layup/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#32
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-1.7#271

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#201
First Shot-2.5#256
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#66
Layups/Dunks-3.0#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#119
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement+2.4#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 24.9% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 91.1% 96.6% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 98.0% 90.1%
Conference Champion 14.0% 23.8% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round21.2% 24.8% 17.8%
Second Round1.8% 2.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 37 - 98 - 9
Quad 410 - 518 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 176   @ Boston University W 72-67 50%     1 - 0 +7.2 +0.9 +6.4
  Nov 08, 2019 97   Harvard W 84-79 50%     2 - 0 +7.2 +16.3 -8.8
  Nov 12, 2019 195   @ Massachusetts L 71-80 55%     2 - 1 -8.2 +2.6 -11.4
  Nov 16, 2019 163   Old Dominion L 69-76 69%     2 - 2 -9.9 +1.1 -11.3
  Nov 19, 2019 340   @ Holy Cross W 101-44 87%     3 - 2 +47.1 +18.2 +27.8
  Nov 25, 2019 180   South Alabama L 62-74 61%     3 - 3 -12.8 -11.0 -2.3
  Nov 26, 2019 146   Drake L 56-59 53%     3 - 4 -1.7 -11.3 +9.4
  Nov 27, 2019 279   Weber St. W 79-69 80%     4 - 4 +3.4 +4.6 -0.9
  Dec 04, 2019 335   Maine W 78-63 93%     5 - 4 +0.7 +10.6 -7.5
  Dec 07, 2019 93   Davidson L 63-70 47%     5 - 5 -4.1 -2.3 -2.7
  Dec 17, 2019 225   @ Eastern Michigan L 55-60 62%     5 - 6 -5.9 -2.2 -4.5
  Dec 19, 2019 269   @ Detroit Mercy W 74-61 69%     6 - 6 +10.2 +3.1 +7.9
  Dec 28, 2019 160   @ Towson W 61-45 46%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +19.1 -8.5 +28.2
  Dec 30, 2019 275   @ James Madison W 88-72 71%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +12.4 +5.7 +5.6
  Jan 02, 2020 308   Elon W 77-68 90%     9 - 6 3 - 0 -2.6 +2.2 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2020 174   William & Mary L 64-66 71%     9 - 7 3 - 1 -5.5 -7.2 +1.6
  Jan 09, 2020 149   Hofstra L 72-74 65%     9 - 8 3 - 2 -3.8 -0.5 -3.5
  Jan 16, 2020 134   @ College of Charleston W 79-76 40%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +7.8 +6.9 +1.0
  Jan 18, 2020 302   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-76 OT 77%     10 - 9 4 - 3 -7.4 -4.7 -2.6
  Jan 23, 2020 223   Drexel W 85-52 80%     11 - 9 5 - 3 +26.4 +15.3 +13.5
  Jan 25, 2020 192   Delaware L 74-76 75%     11 - 10 5 - 4 -6.9 +0.4 -7.4
  Jan 30, 2020 174   @ William & Mary L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 01, 2020 308   @ Elon W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 149   @ Hofstra L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 13, 2020 302   UNC Wilmington W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 15, 2020 134   College of Charleston W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 20, 2020 192   @ Delaware W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 22, 2020 223   @ Drexel W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 27, 2020 275   James Madison W 83-71 86%    
  Mar 01, 2020 160   Towson W 70-65 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.7 7.5 2.7 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.5 10.7 3.5 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 10.4 6.9 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 5.8 10.7 0.7 17.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 9.8 2.3 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.5 3.3 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.2 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.6 12.1 19.9 26.1 22.0 11.1 2.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 98.6% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 67.2% 7.5    2.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.9% 3.7    0.2 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 4.8 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.8% 41.0% 41.0% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.6
13-5 11.1% 33.1% 33.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.9 0.0 7.4
12-6 22.0% 25.1% 25.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.2 16.5
11-7 26.1% 21.4% 21.4% 14.8 0.1 1.5 3.1 0.9 20.5
10-8 19.9% 16.5% 16.5% 15.2 0.4 1.8 1.0 16.6
9-9 12.1% 13.0% 13.0% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 10.5
8-10 4.6% 13.2% 13.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 4.0
7-11 1.2% 11.4% 11.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
6-12 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 1.7 6.5 9.5 3.7 78.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.3 10.8 53.8 34.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%