Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#132
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#107
Pace65.9#283
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 24.5% 17.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 14.0
.500 or above 85.8% 91.9% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 88.6% 78.9%
Conference Champion 29.4% 33.8% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round21.4% 24.2% 17.0%
Second Round2.3% 2.9% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 411 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 215   @ Boston University W 72-67 58%     1 - 0 +4.8 +0.2 +4.7
  Nov 08, 2019 85   Harvard W 84-79 45%     2 - 0 +8.1 +16.7 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2019 189   @ Massachusetts L 71-80 52%     2 - 1 -7.6 +2.7 -10.9
  Nov 16, 2019 127   Old Dominion W 66-63 61%    
  Nov 19, 2019 313   @ Holy Cross W 76-67 79%    
  Nov 25, 2019 134   South Alabama W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 04, 2019 308   Maine W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 07, 2019 86   Davidson L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 17, 2019 221   @ Eastern Michigan W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 19, 2019 222   @ Detroit Mercy W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 28, 2019 156   @ Towson L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 30, 2019 234   @ James Madison W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 02, 2020 315   Elon W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 04, 2020 174   William & Mary W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 09, 2020 186   Hofstra W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 16, 2020 141   @ College of Charleston L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 18, 2020 266   @ UNC Wilmington W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 23, 2020 236   Drexel W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 25, 2020 192   Delaware W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 30, 2020 174   @ William & Mary L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 01, 2020 315   @ Elon W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 08, 2020 186   @ Hofstra W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 13, 2020 266   UNC Wilmington W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 141   College of Charleston W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 20, 2020 192   @ Delaware W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 236   @ Drexel W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 27, 2020 234   James Madison W 81-72 78%    
  Mar 01, 2020 156   Towson W 72-67 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.4 7.7 7.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 29.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 5.8 6.5 3.8 1.0 0.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.4 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.4 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 4.1 6.3 8.3 10.3 12.0 12.9 12.7 11.7 8.8 5.3 2.2 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
16-2 98.4% 5.3    4.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 88.0% 7.7    6.1 1.5 0.1
14-4 65.8% 7.7    4.6 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 34.4% 4.4    1.7 2.0 0.6 0.1
12-6 11.6% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 20.5 7.0 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 69.7% 67.0% 2.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.1%
17-1 2.2% 57.3% 52.2% 5.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.9 10.8%
16-2 5.3% 50.1% 49.1% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 2.7 2.1%
15-3 8.8% 36.9% 36.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 5.5 0.0%
14-4 11.7% 32.5% 32.5% 13.4 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 7.9
13-5 12.7% 27.1% 27.1% 13.8 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.3
12-6 12.9% 20.1% 20.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.0 10.3
11-7 12.0% 15.7% 15.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 10.2
10-8 10.3% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 9.1
9-9 8.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.6
8-10 6.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.0
7-11 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.6% 21.5% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.4 6.3 6.1 3.9 1.1 78.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 11.1 33.3 44.4 11.1