Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Pace70.8#145
Improvement+0.6#159

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#87
First Shot+2.4#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#136
Layup/Dunks-3.6#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
Freethrows+2.1#48
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#220
First Shot-1.7#213
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#182
Layups/Dunks-2.6#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement+1.3#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 20.5% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 25.2% 41.5% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.8% 20.5% 15.0%
Second Round1.5% 2.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 59 - 7
Quad 413 - 322 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 291   San Jose St. L 71-79 86%     0 - 1 -18.3 -7.9 -10.3
  Nov 09, 2019 214   Monmouth W 94-74 76%     1 - 1 +13.9 +14.1 -1.5
  Nov 13, 2019 230   @ Bucknell L 71-86 58%     1 - 2 -16.0 -5.2 -10.3
  Nov 21, 2019 126   @ UCLA W 88-78 35%     2 - 2 +15.2 +14.7 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2019 281   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 79-57 68%     3 - 2 +18.2 +4.2 +13.2
  Nov 27, 2019 198   @ San Diego L 69-79 53%     3 - 3 -9.5 -3.0 -6.2
  Dec 01, 2019 341   Holy Cross W 91-69 90%     4 - 3 +9.1 +0.2 +6.8
  Dec 02, 2019 244   Canisius W 64-57 71%     5 - 3 +2.3 -8.9 +11.3
  Dec 07, 2019 107   @ St. Bonaventure L 45-73 28%     5 - 4 -20.8 -20.0 -2.6
  Dec 10, 2019 134   Stony Brook W 71-63 58%     6 - 4 +7.0 -6.8 +13.2
  Dec 19, 2019 175   @ Princeton W 87-72 45%     7 - 4 +17.4 +10.9 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2019 224   Manhattan W 63-51 77%     8 - 4 +5.4 -5.2 +11.5
  Dec 28, 2019 269   @ James Madison W 82-76 66%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +2.9 +3.3 -0.6
  Dec 30, 2019 184   @ Towson W 75-67 46%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +10.1 +2.4 +7.7
  Jan 02, 2020 143   William & Mary L 61-88 60%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -28.4 -15.0 -13.1
  Jan 04, 2020 314   Elon W 102-75 89%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +14.8 +20.7 -6.4
  Jan 09, 2020 128   @ Northeastern W 74-72 35%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +7.2 +5.0 +2.3
  Jan 16, 2020 321   @ UNC Wilmington W 63-61 78%     13 - 5 5 - 1 -5.1 -5.0 +0.2
  Jan 18, 2020 123   @ College of Charleston L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 23, 2020 199   Delaware W 76-70 73%    
  Jan 25, 2020 228   Drexel W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 30, 2020 314   @ Elon W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 01, 2020 143   @ William & Mary L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 08, 2020 128   Northeastern W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 13, 2020 123   College of Charleston W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 15, 2020 321   UNC Wilmington W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 20, 2020 228   @ Drexel W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 22, 2020 199   @ Delaware W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 27, 2020 184   Towson W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 269   James Madison W 86-76 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.6 8.5 3.8 0.8 25.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.2 11.3 7.8 1.9 0.1 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.9 10.2 6.1 0.7 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.1 4.7 0.6 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.9 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.9 14.2 19.6 21.3 17.1 10.3 3.9 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.9% 3.8    3.4 0.4
15-3 81.8% 8.5    5.8 2.5 0.2
14-4 50.3% 8.6    3.4 3.9 1.3 0.1
13-5 15.1% 3.2    0.5 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 13.8 8.3 2.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 38.4% 38.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.9% 30.1% 30.1% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.7
15-3 10.3% 27.7% 27.7% 13.3 0.2 1.6 1.0 0.1 7.5
14-4 17.1% 22.4% 22.4% 13.6 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.4 13.3
13-5 21.3% 18.6% 18.6% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.0 17.3
12-6 19.6% 12.8% 12.8% 14.3 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 17.1
11-7 14.2% 9.3% 9.3% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 12.9
10-8 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 7.3
9-9 3.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.1
8-10 1.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.7 3.6 0.3 83.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 8.9 65.1 26.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%