Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Western Kentucky 33.1%   12   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 10 - 4 +6.9      +4.9 56 +2.0 116 68.8 203 +7.6 77 0.0 1
89 Louisiana Tech 24.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 7 10 - 4 +5.8      +3.6 78 +2.2 108 64.7 303 +7.5 78 0.0 1
128 Old Dominion 9.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 6 +2.2      -4.8 307 +7.0 26 64.8 300 +3.6 130 0.0 1
131 UTEP 10.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 9 8 - 6 +2.0      -1.7 226 +3.7 72 69.3 191 +16.6 21 0.0 1
145 North Texas 7.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 12 8 - 6 +1.1      -1.9 235 +3.0 86 57.0 351 +1.4 158 0.0 1
166 Middle Tennessee 5.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 12 7 - 7 -0.4      -1.0 208 +0.7 143 68.9 202 +13.1 37 0.0 1
167 Florida International 4.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 12 7 - 7 -0.4      +2.3 102 -2.7 257 81.9 17 -0.3 182 0.0 1
175 Florida Atlantic 3.9%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 12 7 - 7 -0.9      -2.2 248 +1.3 128 69.0 198 -1.7 208 0.0 1
187 UAB 2.9%   2 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 13 6 - 8 -1.6      -0.5 192 -1.0 189 63.8 316 -5.4 251 0.0 1
200 Texas San Antonio 2.0%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 16 6 - 8 -2.3      +0.9 145 -3.2 271 77.3 43 -13.7 325 0.0 1
216 Rice 1.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 13 6 - 8 -3.2      -0.5 191 -2.6 254 76.6 49 +8.4 73 0.0 1
218 Marshall 1.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 16 5 - 9 -3.2      -1.0 210 -2.1 231 84.0 9 -4.0 234 0.0 1
230 Southern Miss 1.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 15 5 - 9 -3.6      -2.6 260 -1.0 191 63.6 320 -10.1 297 0.0 1
235 Charlotte 1.3%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 14 5 - 9 -3.9      -3.2 278 -0.7 182 64.9 298 +1.1 162 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Western Kentucky 2.8 39.9 20.1 12.8 8.5 5.8 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Louisiana Tech 3.3 31.2 20.1 13.5 9.6 7.1 5.3 3.9 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3
Old Dominion 5.2 11.7 13.4 13.3 11.7 10.0 8.8 7.5 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.1
UTEP 5.5 13.1 12.1 11.5 10.6 9.2 8.3 7.2 6.2 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.7 1.7
North Texas 5.9 8.8 10.5 11.1 10.9 10.0 9.3 8.1 7.0 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.7 2.7 1.9
Middle Tennessee 7.0 6.3 7.5 8.1 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.0 6.4 6.0 5.2 4.2
Florida International 7.0 5.6 7.3 8.2 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.6
Florida Atlantic 7.3 4.6 6.2 7.4 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.4 5.7 4.4
UAB 7.8 3.4 4.8 6.1 7.3 7.9 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.5 6.8 5.3
Texas San Antonio 8.5 2.3 3.4 4.9 5.9 6.7 7.6 8.1 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.2
Rice 8.9 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.2 6.1 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.0 9.0
Marshall 9.2 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.6 5.5 6.6 7.6 8.3 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.3 10.7 9.9
Southern Miss 9.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.1 6.0 7.1 7.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 10.9 11.6 11.6
Charlotte 9.3 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.2 6.4 7.3 7.7 8.6 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.4 11.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Western Kentucky 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.6 8.9 13.0 16.4 18.2 16.6 11.4 4.5
Louisiana Tech 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.3 10.9 14.1 16.4 16.7 13.9 8.6 3.1
Old Dominion 8 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.8 10.2 13.4 15.2 15.5 13.9 10.0 5.7 2.2 0.5
UTEP 8 - 6 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.8 10.5 12.7 14.1 14.2 12.3 9.1 6.0 2.8 0.8
North Texas 8 - 6 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 12.0 14.5 15.2 14.1 11.2 7.7 4.1 1.6 0.3
Middle Tennessee 7 - 7 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.9 8.9 11.4 13.5 14.0 13.1 11.0 8.3 5.3 2.8 1.0 0.2
Florida International 7 - 7 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.5 8.7 11.7 14.1 14.7 13.7 11.2 8.0 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2
Florida Atlantic 7 - 7 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.4 9.7 12.8 14.2 14.7 13.0 10.2 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1
UAB 6 - 8 0.3 1.6 4.1 7.6 11.3 13.6 15.3 14.6 12.1 9.0 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
Texas San Antonio 6 - 8 0.5 2.3 5.5 9.4 13.2 15.5 15.2 13.5 10.5 7.1 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Rice 6 - 8 0.8 3.0 6.7 11.0 14.0 15.7 14.8 12.7 9.2 6.1 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Marshall 5 - 9 0.9 3.4 7.4 12.0 14.6 16.0 15.0 12.3 8.6 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 5 - 9 1.2 4.1 8.3 12.6 14.9 15.9 14.1 11.4 7.8 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 5 - 9 1.2 4.2 8.2 12.1 15.0 15.6 14.2 11.6 8.1 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Western Kentucky 39.9% 25.7 10.5 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 31.2% 19.2 8.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 11.7% 5.9 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
UTEP 13.1% 6.9 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Texas 8.8% 4.3 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 6.3% 3.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 5.6% 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 4.6% 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UAB 3.4% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2.3% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rice 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 1.5% 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Western Kentucky 33.1% 27.8% 5.2% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.6 2.4 6.9 11.9 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 66.9 7.3%
Louisiana Tech 24.5% 22.4% 2.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.5 8.1 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 75.5 2.8%
Old Dominion 9.3% 8.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 90.7 0.4%
UTEP 10.8% 9.6% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 4.0 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 89.2 1.4%
North Texas 7.3% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 92.7 0.3%
Middle Tennessee 5.5% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 94.5 0.4%
Florida International 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 95.4 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.4 96.1 0.0%
UAB 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 97.1 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 98.0 0.0%
Rice 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Marshall 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Western Kentucky 33.1% 3.2% 31.4% 10.3% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 24.5% 1.3% 23.9% 7.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 9.3% 0.3% 9.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 10.8% 0.9% 10.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 7.3% 0.2% 7.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.5% 0.3% 5.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 4.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 3.9% 0.2% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 1.6% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.4 9.4 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 93.2 6.4 0.1
2nd Round 24.1% 0.2 75.9 23.4 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9 0.1
Elite Eight 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0