Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
82 Louisiana Tech 28.8%   13 - 5 6 - 2 17 - 7 10 - 4 +6.7      +3.2 83 +3.4 83 67.3 238 +6.0 88 +5.4 4
87 North Texas 29.1%   13   12 - 8 8 - 1 16 - 9 12 - 2 +6.5      +4.0 66 +2.4 102 59.8 349 +5.5 93 +12.8 1
103 Western Kentucky 18.9%   13 - 6 7 - 1 17 - 8 11 - 3 +4.7      +4.4 58 +0.3 155 68.8 198 +5.4 97 +9.5 2
153 UTEP 3.4%   9 - 9 3 - 5 12 - 12 6 - 8 +0.8      -3.0 265 +3.8 78 67.1 244 +1.4 148 -2.2 10
155 Charlotte 4.9%   12 - 7 6 - 2 15 - 10 9 - 5 +0.3      -2.9 261 +3.2 88 64.1 306 +1.2 151 +5.5 3
157 Marshall 2.4%   8 - 12 3 - 5 11 - 15 6 - 8 +0.2      -0.3 185 +0.5 149 82.8 8 -2.6 208 -3.5 11
163 Old Dominion 2.8%   8 - 13 4 - 4 11 - 16 7 - 7 0.0      -3.9 286 +3.9 77 64.1 307 -3.4 220 -1.3 8
166 Florida International 3.5%   11 - 7 5 - 3 14 - 10 8 - 6 -0.1      +1.8 124 -2.0 226 81.4 13 +1.3 150 +2.4 5
167 Texas San Antonio 3.0%   7 - 11 4 - 4 10 - 14 7 - 7 -0.2      +3.5 75 -3.8 281 78.6 21 -2.3 205 +1.3 6
186 Florida Atlantic 1.8%   9 - 9 4 - 4 12 - 12 7 - 7 -1.2      -1.7 223 +0.6 147 69.0 188 -1.6 193 -0.9 7
190 UAB 1.2%   10 - 9 3 - 5 13 - 12 6 - 8 -1.5      -1.9 229 +0.4 152 62.9 326 -0.5 182 -2.1 9
244 Rice 0.1%   7 - 13 1 - 8 9 - 16 3 - 11 -4.8      +0.1 175 -4.9 315 73.9 64 -4.1 230 -11.0 14
251 Southern Miss 0.3%   3 - 15 2 - 6 5 - 19 4 - 10 -5.0      -2.5 247 -2.5 245 66.0 266 -6.8 277 -5.1 12
286 Middle Tennessee 0.0%   2 - 16 1 - 7 4 - 20 3 - 11 -6.9      -3.1 267 -3.8 283 71.8 107 -10.1 315 -10.5 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Louisiana Tech 2.4 19.0 36.9 31.3 8.8 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 1.2 81.6 14.6 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 2.2 29.1 36.5 25.8 5.9 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
UTEP 7.6 0.1 1.5 7.3 11.7 14.4 15.7 14.0 12.8 11.0 8.8 2.3 0.5 0.0
Charlotte 4.1 3.0 8.8 21.7 37.0 14.5 8.0 4.2 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
Marshall 8.7 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.0 8.7 11.4 13.5 14.4 15.7 16.7 7.4 1.6 0.1
Old Dominion 7.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 8.2 14.5 17.5 16.1 13.6 12.2 8.9 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Florida International 5.3 0.6 3.6 10.5 21.3 25.4 14.9 10.2 6.6 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.1
Texas San Antonio 6.3 0.1 1.0 5.3 14.8 19.8 17.9 14.1 10.2 8.1 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0
Florida Atlantic 7.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.7 13.5 13.9 15.6 14.8 12.6 10.4 6.7 1.9 0.2
UAB 8.2 0.4 3.7 7.9 11.8 14.2 14.5 15.8 15.8 10.9 3.4 1.2 0.4
Rice 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 6.4 23.4 34.2 31.7
Southern Miss 11.3 0.1 0.7 1.1 2.2 4.0 5.9 9.9 16.9 38.7 17.3 3.2
Middle Tennessee 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.6 19.3 33.2 37.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Louisiana Tech 10 - 4 0.0 0.6 4.3 14.9 30.8 33.7 15.7
North Texas 12 - 2 0.1 1.2 6.9 21.2 39.8 30.8
Western Kentucky 11 - 3 0.4 3.6 13.0 26.3 29.9 20.8 6.1
UTEP 6 - 8 0.7 4.9 16.7 28.6 28.6 16.4 4.1
Charlotte 9 - 5 2.8 12.2 25.5 31.5 21.0 6.3 0.7
Marshall 6 - 8 2.7 12.8 26.3 30.3 19.3 7.5 1.3
Old Dominion 7 - 7 2.8 13.2 27.1 31.2 18.9 6.0 0.7
Florida International 8 - 6 2.1 12.1 25.3 30.5 20.7 8.1 1.2
Texas San Antonio 7 - 7 1.0 7.0 19.9 30.0 27.1 12.2 2.8
Florida Atlantic 7 - 7 4.0 15.8 28.3 28.4 17.5 5.2 0.9
UAB 6 - 8 1.4 7.8 22.1 31.6 25.2 9.9 2.1
Rice 3 - 11 12.0 29.5 31.4 20.1 6.1 0.7
Southern Miss 4 - 10 9.4 25.2 30.9 22.3 9.6 2.4 0.2
Middle Tennessee 3 - 11 15.0 32.6 30.6 16.4 4.6 0.7 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 19.0% 4.9 10.3 3.3 0.5 0.1
North Texas 81.6% 55.1 22.1 3.8 0.6 0.1
Western Kentucky 29.1% 11.2 13.9 3.5 0.5 0.1
UTEP
Charlotte 3.0% 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Marshall
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida International 0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0
UAB
Rice
Southern Miss
Middle Tennessee


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 14.2 10.7 1.7 0.0 71.2 0.0%
North Texas 29.1% 29.1% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 2.6 15.7 9.1 1.5 0.1 70.9 0.0%
Western Kentucky 18.9% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 8.4 8.1 1.6 0.0 81.1 0.1%
UTEP 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 96.6 0.0%
Charlotte 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.4 95.1 0.0%
Marshall 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 97.6 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 97.2 0.0%
Florida International 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.3 96.5 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.8 97.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 98.2 0.0%
UAB 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 98.8 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Louisiana Tech 28.8% 0.0% 28.8% 7.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 29.1% 0.0% 29.1% 6.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 18.9% 0.0% 18.9% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 3.4% 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 4.9% 0.0% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.8% 0.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.5% 0.1% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 3.0% 0.4% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 19.4% 0.2 80.6 19.4
Sweet Sixteen 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0