UTEP
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#145
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#139
Pace67.3#240
Improvement-2.8#292

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#264
First Shot-1.3#221
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#297
Layup/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#226
Freethrows+2.2#36
Improvement-0.5#207

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#66
First Shot+2.5#96
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#39
Layups/Dunks+0.6#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#27
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement-2.3#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 71.4% 85.1% 59.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.5% 76.5% 45.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.1% 6.5% 4.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 88 - 11
Quad 46 - 114 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 95   New Mexico St. W 65-50 46%     1 - 0 +17.3 -0.8 +19.3
  Nov 19, 2019 116   New Mexico W 66-63 52%     2 - 0 +3.8 -11.0 +14.7
  Dec 03, 2019 95   @ New Mexico St. L 56-59 26%     2 - 1 +5.1 -8.1 +13.0
  Dec 07, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 59-50 94%     3 - 1 -7.6 -10.3 +3.8
  Dec 16, 2019 294   N.C. A&T W 72-54 86%     4 - 1 +7.4 +1.5 +7.4
  Dec 17, 2019 112   UC Irvine W 67-61 51%     5 - 1 +7.0 -1.5 +8.7
  Dec 19, 2019 34   @ Houston L 57-77 11%     5 - 2 -5.3 -11.5 +6.6
  Dec 22, 2019 181   @ Hawaii L 63-67 47%     5 - 3 -1.8 -11.0 +9.3
  Dec 23, 2019 100   Ball St. W 71-70 37%     6 - 3 +5.7 +0.8 +4.9
  Dec 25, 2019 111   Boise St. L 67-72 40%     6 - 4 -1.1 -4.5 +3.4
  Jan 02, 2020 159   @ Florida International L 67-69 42%     6 - 5 0 - 1 +1.3 -5.7 +7.1
  Jan 04, 2020 183   @ Florida Atlantic L 56-59 48%     6 - 6 0 - 2 -1.1 -12.7 +11.5
  Jan 09, 2020 264   Southern Miss W 76-64 83%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +3.3 -1.6 +4.7
  Jan 11, 2020 83   Louisiana Tech L 61-64 41%     7 - 7 1 - 3 +0.6 -7.2 +7.7
  Jan 15, 2020 175   Texas San Antonio W 80-77 OT 68%     8 - 7 2 - 3 -0.4 -4.7 +4.0
  Jan 18, 2020 175   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 23, 2020 238   @ Rice W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 25, 2020 96   @ North Texas L 58-65 26%    
  Jan 30, 2020 284   Middle Tennessee W 72-61 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 167   UAB W 62-58 67%    
  Feb 06, 2020 170   @ Charlotte L 59-60 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 169   @ Old Dominion L 58-59 45%    
  Feb 13, 2020 110   Western Kentucky W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 15, 2020 156   Marshall W 72-68 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.2 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.8 4.5 1.3 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.1 4.9 4.2 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.0 1.2 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 6.4 4.8 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 9.7 1.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 6.1 5.2 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 8.2 1.2 11.2 9th
10th 0.4 5.1 4.3 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.0 0.7 7.9 11th
12th 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.2 1.3 5.4 12.8 20.8 24.2 19.4 11.3 4.0 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 58.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-4 15.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.6% 18.5% 18.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-4 4.0% 16.1% 16.1% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.4
9-5 11.3% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.1
8-6 19.4% 5.8% 5.8% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 18.3
7-7 24.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 23.1
6-8 20.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 20.1
5-9 12.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.6
4-10 5.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.3
3-11 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 4.5 13.6 68.2 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%