Charlotte
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#155
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#151
Pace64.1#305
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#260
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#341
Layup/Dunks+2.9#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#274
Freethrows+2.1#42
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#86
First Shot+0.2#159
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#6
Layups/Dunks-3.1#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+1.7#72
Improvement+0.5#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.4% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 97.8% 100.0% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 100.0% 96.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 10.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round5.1% 7.4% 4.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 410 - 316 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 275   @ James Madison L 74-79 65%     0 - 1 -8.6 -8.9 +0.8
  Nov 12, 2019 92   Davidson W 71-58 40%     1 - 1 +15.9 +4.5 +12.5
  Nov 17, 2019 101   Wake Forest W 67-65 OT 44%     2 - 1 +3.9 -9.1 +12.9
  Nov 21, 2019 188   @ Appalachian St. L 55-64 46%     2 - 2 -7.5 -17.5 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2019 108   @ Georgia St. L 78-81 OT 25%     2 - 3 +4.3 +2.5 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2019 320   South Carolina Upstate W 83-47 88%     3 - 3 +23.4 +8.4 +17.0
  Dec 03, 2019 271   UNC Asheville L 75-83 81%     3 - 4 -17.0 -7.1 -9.6
  Dec 07, 2019 302   @ UNC Wilmington W 76-57 71%     4 - 4 +13.6 +5.1 +9.4
  Dec 16, 2019 160   Valparaiso W 67-57 62%     5 - 4 +7.3 -2.0 +10.1
  Dec 19, 2019 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-44 97%     6 - 4 -0.6 -9.1 +8.6
  Dec 22, 2019 208   @ East Carolina L 56-60 51%     6 - 5 -4.1 -16.2 +12.2
  Jan 02, 2020 189   UAB W 51-44 68%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +2.6 -14.5 +18.3
  Jan 04, 2020 287   Middle Tennessee W 68-62 83%     8 - 5 2 - 0 -3.8 -8.4 +4.8
  Jan 11, 2020 164   Old Dominion W 53-47 62%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +3.1 -10.2 +14.1
  Jan 16, 2020 156   @ Marshall W 77-75 39%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +5.1 +2.1 +3.0
  Jan 18, 2020 103   @ Western Kentucky L 63-80 24%     10 - 6 4 - 1 -9.4 -8.4 -0.8
  Jan 20, 2020 164   @ Old Dominion L 62-66 40%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -1.1 +0.9 -2.4
  Jan 23, 2020 186   Florida Atlantic W 70-68 66%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -2.0 -1.7 -0.2
  Jan 25, 2020 165   Florida International W 75-49 63%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +23.0 +4.9 +20.2
  Jan 30, 2020 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 59-68 19%    
  Feb 01, 2020 250   @ Southern Miss W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 06, 2020 152   UTEP W 61-59 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 167   Texas San Antonio W 73-70 63%    
  Feb 13, 2020 87   @ North Texas L 56-65 20%    
  Feb 15, 2020 245   @ Rice W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.6 2.0 0.8 3.3 1st
2nd 0.5 4.8 3.9 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 8.2 11.4 1.1 21.2 3rd
4th 0.4 12.8 20.0 3.7 0.0 36.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 10.6 1.8 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 5.2 2.6 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.5 3.3 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.9 0.7 1.5 8th
9th 0.8 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.5 12.2 26.7 30.4 20.4 7.0 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 97.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
11-3 28.2% 2.0    0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1
10-4 2.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-3 7.0% 10.1% 10.1% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 6.3
10-4 20.4% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 18.9
9-5 30.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 28.7
8-6 26.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 26.0
7-7 12.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.0
6-8 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.4 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.3%