Marshall
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#204
Pace83.0#7
Improvement+3.3#43

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks+3.7#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#252
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement+2.4#55

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#138
First Shot+2.9#85
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#326
Layups/Dunks+4.0#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#27
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement+1.0#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.4% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 11.5% 25.1% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 59.0% 24.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round2.6% 4.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 48 - 112 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 234   Robert Morris W 67-60 76%     1 - 0 -0.2 -6.4 +6.5
  Nov 10, 2019 114   Toledo L 70-96 49%     1 - 1 -25.5 -13.3 -8.8
  Nov 15, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame L 64-74 14%     1 - 2 +2.0 -9.3 +12.0
  Nov 19, 2019 125   College of Charleston L 66-76 52%     1 - 3 -10.3 -15.3 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2019 349   Howard W 91-63 96%     2 - 3 +7.4 -4.2 +8.5
  Nov 29, 2019 18   @ Florida L 67-73 7%     2 - 4 +10.6 -0.5 +11.3
  Dec 04, 2019 78   Akron L 73-85 35%     2 - 5 -7.9 -4.7 -2.1
  Dec 08, 2019 114   @ Toledo L 72-82 28%     2 - 6 -3.6 -3.7 +0.6
  Dec 16, 2019 303   @ Morehead St. W 89-62 71%     3 - 6 +21.5 +7.9 +11.9
  Dec 19, 2019 309   Eastern Kentucky W 90-72 86%     4 - 6 +6.3 -5.4 +8.4
  Dec 22, 2019 61   @ Northern Iowa L 80-88 15%     4 - 7 +3.3 +2.8 +1.2
  Dec 29, 2019 99   Duquesne W 83-61 32%     5 - 7 +27.0 +9.5 +16.4
  Jan 02, 2020 249   Rice W 89-69 77%     6 - 7 1 - 0 +12.3 +0.4 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2020 86   North Texas L 64-67 38%     6 - 8 1 - 1 +0.4 -4.3 +4.5
  Jan 09, 2020 284   @ Middle Tennessee W 79-75 66%     7 - 8 2 - 1 -0.1 -1.3 +1.0
  Jan 11, 2020 186   @ UAB L 50-61 43%     7 - 9 2 - 2 -9.0 -20.5 +11.4
  Jan 16, 2020 185   Charlotte L 75-77 65%     7 - 10 2 - 3 -5.9 -0.9 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2020 170   Old Dominion W 68-67 63%     8 - 10 3 - 3 -2.2 +3.4 -5.5
  Jan 22, 2020 103   Western Kentucky L 60-64 44%     8 - 11 3 - 4 -2.3 -11.2 +8.8
  Jan 25, 2020 103   @ Western Kentucky L 73-80 24%    
  Jan 30, 2020 148   @ Florida International L 82-86 37%    
  Feb 01, 2020 181   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 06, 2020 251   Southern Miss W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 88   Louisiana Tech L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 13, 2020 168   @ Texas San Antonio L 83-86 39%    
  Feb 15, 2020 150   @ UTEP L 68-72 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.4 0.2 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 0.9 4.1 4th
5th 2.1 4.4 0.2 6.7 5th
6th 0.4 7.1 1.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 3.4 8.0 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 9.6 2.6 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 2.7 10.8 0.5 14.0 9th
10th 0.5 9.7 4.9 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.1 4.5 9.2 0.7 14.4 11th
12th 1.0 5.8 1.8 8.5 12th
13th 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 1.9 11.7 23.5 29.8 20.5 9.6 2.7 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 0.4% 8.1% 8.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-5 2.7% 11.3% 11.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-6 9.6% 7.6% 7.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.8
7-7 20.5% 2.8% 2.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 19.9
6-8 29.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.4 0.3 29.1
5-9 23.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 23.2
4-10 11.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.7
3-11 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%