West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Gonzaga 97.9%   2   4 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 3 14 - 2 +19.2      +11.4 1 +7.9 17 75.1 71 +13.8 32 0.0 1
35 St. Mary's 55.3%   11   2 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 5 +11.3      +5.3 50 +6.0 44 60.0 348 +5.7 101 0.0 1
68 BYU 32.2%   3 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 6 +7.7      +5.6 44 +2.1 112 75.4 68 +11.5 48 0.0 1
106 San Francisco 7.6%   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 8 +3.8      +3.7 77 +0.2 155 66.4 277 +10.0 56 0.0 1
111 Pepperdine 3.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 8 - 8 +3.1      +5.0 54 -2.0 223 74.6 77 +5.5 105 0.0 1
118 Santa Clara 3.0%   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 7 - 9 +2.6      -0.1 176 +2.6 95 70.7 155 +8.8 68 0.0 1
148 Loyola Marymount 2.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 10 +1.0      -0.3 180 +1.3 129 60.2 347 -5.9 257 0.0 1
156 San Diego 0.9%   2 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 10 +0.2      -3.1 273 +3.3 81 70.3 167 -0.9 193 0.0 1
242 Pacific 0.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 4 - 12 -4.2      -1.5 222 -2.7 258 59.7 349 -8.6 280 0.0 1
253 Portland 0.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 4 - 12 -4.8      -3.1 274 -1.7 213 67.4 249 +1.9 150 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.2 83.4 12.7 2.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.6 18.4 42.3 19.6 9.8 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
BYU 3.7 6.3 22.8 25.6 17.4 11.6 7.6 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4
San Francisco 5.1 1.9 9.5 15.1 17.0 16.1 13.8 10.9 8.1 5.1 2.6
Pepperdine 5.2 1.5 8.4 15.5 17.3 16.0 13.8 11.0 8.5 5.4 2.8
Santa Clara 5.5 1.1 6.6 12.5 16.0 16.0 14.9 12.6 9.9 6.8 3.6
Loyola Marymount 6.3 0.6 4.1 8.2 11.1 13.2 14.7 15.3 14.1 11.5 7.3
San Diego 6.6 0.3 2.5 5.9 9.3 12.3 15.3 16.6 16.7 13.2 8.0
Pacific 7.9 0.0 0.7 2.1 4.1 6.4 9.3 12.9 16.9 22.7 24.8
Portland 8.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 5.5 8.3 11.7 15.5 22.8 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 6.4 13.0 22.5 29.3 24.1
St. Mary's 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.6 12.4 16.3 18.0 16.6 11.5 5.5 1.3
BYU 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.1 11.7 14.9 15.9 15.4 11.9 7.7 3.6 1.1 0.2
San Francisco 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.1 8.5 11.4 14.2 14.8 14.2 11.4 8.1 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pepperdine 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.7 11.7 13.8 15.1 13.9 11.3 8.0 4.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.7 10.0 13.0 14.8 14.9 13.0 9.7 6.4 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.2 10.5 13.5 14.6 14.2 12.3 9.2 6.3 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
San Diego 6 - 10 0.3 1.6 4.2 8.2 12.4 15.3 16.1 14.4 11.6 7.7 4.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pacific 4 - 12 2.2 7.0 12.3 15.7 16.5 15.0 12.0 8.6 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 4 - 12 3.4 8.9 13.9 16.6 16.1 13.8 10.9 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 83.4% 72.1 10.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 18.4% 10.3 7.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
BYU 6.3% 3.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 1.9% 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 97.9% 67.6% 30.2% 2   21.1 20.5 13.9 13.1 8.2 5.4 4.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 93.4%
St. Mary's 55.3% 17.4% 37.9% 11   0.8 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.3 5.1 6.5 8.8 12.3 4.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 44.7 45.9%
BYU 32.2% 6.9% 25.3% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 10.1 4.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 67.8 27.1%
San Francisco 7.6% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 92.4 5.2%
Pepperdine 3.8% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.2 1.9%
Santa Clara 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.0 1.4%
Loyola Marymount 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.9%
San Diego 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.3%
Pacific 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 97.9% 1.5% 97.3% 85.3% 60.1% 37.3% 21.6% 12.4% 6.8%
St. Mary's 55.3% 10.3% 50.6% 28.7% 11.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
BYU 32.2% 10.2% 26.6% 11.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
San Francisco 7.6% 2.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 3.8% 1.1% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 3.0% 0.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 22.7 53.8 21.5 2.0 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 28.9 54.2 15.9 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 92.7% 1.3 7.3 58.0 31.6 3.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 67.7% 0.8 32.3 59.1 8.3 0.2
Elite Eight 41.8% 0.4 58.2 39.8 1.9 0.0
Final Four 23.7% 0.2 76.3 23.4 0.3 0.0
Final Game 13.3% 0.1 86.7 13.2 0.1
Champion 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2