West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Gonzaga 99.9%   1   21 - 1 7 - 0 29 - 2 15 - 1 +19.5      +12.1 1 +7.3 24 76.5 32 +22.1 3 +16.8 1
35 St. Mary's 70.3%   11   17 - 4 5 - 2 23 - 7 11 - 5 +11.6      +7.8 17 +3.7 80 60.4 345 +11.5 36 +8.8 2
36 BYU 55.4%   11   14 - 7 4 - 3 21 - 9 11 - 5 +11.5      +8.4 10 +3.2 88 71.8 106 +10.2 45 +6.0 4
101 San Francisco 1.8%   14 - 7 4 - 3 19 - 11 9 - 7 +4.8      +5.3 44 -0.5 175 70.4 142 +5.5 92 +5.5 5
136 Santa Clara 0.5%   15 - 5 4 - 3 19 - 10 8 - 8 +1.8      +0.7 161 +1.1 136 75.0 50 +6.5 81 +6.5 3
141 Pepperdine 0.5%   11 - 10 4 - 3 15 - 15 8 - 8 +1.6      +4.1 62 -2.5 246 75.0 51 +0.6 161 +3.9 7
161 Pacific 0.2%   13 - 8 3 - 4 18 - 12 8 - 8 +0.2      -1.0 201 +1.1 135 62.4 331 +2.4 132 +4.2 6
196 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   7 - 13 2 - 5 10 - 19 5 - 11 -2.2      -0.8 196 -1.4 210 60.2 347 -4.3 234 -2.0 8
200 San Diego 0.0%   7 - 14 1 - 6 10 - 20 4 - 12 -2.5      -4.4 297 +2.0 116 73.0 85 -3.1 217 -7.9 9
279 Portland 0.0%   7 - 13 1 - 6 9 - 20 3 - 13 -6.6      -4.6 300 -2.0 227 68.8 201 -6.1 267 -8.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 97.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.4 5.0 59.0 30.4 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 2.6 2.1 51.3 33.7 8.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 4.6 0.1 4.1 14.8 34.0 23.5 14.8 7.7 0.9 0.1
Santa Clara 5.0 0.0 3.5 10.3 24.4 24.8 20.9 13.8 2.0 0.2 0.0
Pepperdine 5.4 0.0 2.2 7.7 19.1 23.2 23.5 20.5 3.3 0.5 0.0
Pacific 5.5 0.0 1.4 6.3 19.0 22.7 23.1 20.8 5.2 1.3 0.2
Loyola Marymount 7.9 0.1 0.9 2.6 6.2 14.6 51.2 19.3 5.2
San Diego 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.3 27.6 43.9 21.2
Portland 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.7 17.5 29.3 49.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 15 - 1 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.1 22.7 38.8 28.1
St. Mary's 11 - 5 0.1 0.8 5.2 18.6 34.3 28.6 11.2 1.4
BYU 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.7 21.7 30.9 25.8 8.0
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.1 0.9 5.0 14.7 26.0 28.6 18.4 5.5 0.8 0.0
Santa Clara 8 - 8 0.3 2.5 9.6 20.9 27.8 22.9 11.8 3.6 0.5 0.0
Pepperdine 8 - 8 0.7 4.8 14.5 24.5 26.4 18.5 8.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
Pacific 8 - 8 0.2 1.5 6.4 14.9 24.0 25.3 17.8 7.9 1.8 0.2
Loyola Marymount 5 - 11 4.2 15.9 26.9 26.6 17.0 7.2 2.0 0.3 0.0
San Diego 4 - 12 3.9 17.6 29.4 27.1 15.4 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland 3 - 13 14.0 29.1 28.6 17.9 7.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 97.9% 93.4 4.1 0.4 0.0
St. Mary's 5.0% 1.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
BYU 2.1% 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.0
San Francisco 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.0% 0.0
Loyola Marymount
San Diego
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.9% 70.1% 29.9% 1   37.5 33.6 17.2 8.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8%
St. Mary's 70.3% 14.2% 56.1% 11   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.3 7.4 12.4 17.3 21.0 2.5 29.7 65.4%
BYU 55.4% 13.1% 42.3% 11   0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.3 7.8 11.9 20.3 3.7 0.0 44.6 48.7%
San Francisco 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.4%
Santa Clara 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 96.1% 73.6% 50.7% 32.2% 19.5% 11.2%
St. Mary's 70.3% 16.2% 62.7% 31.5% 10.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
BYU 55.4% 16.8% 47.8% 24.0% 8.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
San Francisco 1.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 10.3 51.4 37.5 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 2.1 16.0 55.0 28.5 0.5
2nd Round 98.3% 1.5 1.7 51.0 41.0 6.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 79.5% 0.9 20.5 66.3 12.8 0.4
Elite Eight 55.0% 0.6 45.0 51.7 3.3 0.0
Final Four 34.2% 0.3 65.8 33.6 0.6
Final Game 20.4% 0.2 79.6 20.3 0.1
Champion 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.5