Gonzaga
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#5
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#28
Pace75.1#65
Improvement+0.3#127

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#2
First Shot+9.6#8
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#84
Layup/Dunks+10.4#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#200
Freethrows+2.9#50
Improvement-0.7#293

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#18
First Shot+7.6#16
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#118
Freethrows+2.0#93
Improvement+1.1#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 3.7% 1.0%
#1 Seed 21.2% 21.6% 7.3%
Top 2 Seed 41.4% 42.0% 20.0%
Top 4 Seed 67.5% 68.2% 41.8%
Top 6 Seed 80.5% 81.1% 59.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 97.4% 91.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 92.0% 78.7%
Average Seed 3.8 3.8 5.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.0% 83.3% 72.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 3.8%
First Round96.6% 96.8% 89.2%
Second Round85.1% 85.6% 67.8%
Sweet Sixteen60.0% 60.6% 38.5%
Elite Eight37.3% 37.8% 19.4%
Final Four22.1% 22.5% 9.9%
Championship Game12.6% 12.9% 4.5%
National Champion7.2% 7.3% 2.9%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 25 - 19 - 3
Quad 39 - 018 - 3
Quad 411 - 029 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 320   Alabama St. W 95-64 99%     1 - 0 +17.5 +17.2 +0.6
  Nov 09, 2019 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 110-60 99.6%    2 - 0 +33.0 +23.4 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2019 279   North Dakota W 97-66 99%     3 - 0 +21.8 +13.0 +6.8
  Nov 15, 2019 94   @ Texas A&M W 79-49 85%     4 - 0 +38.1 +10.5 +27.3
  Nov 19, 2019 126   Texas Arlington W 82-62 97%    
  Nov 23, 2019 221   Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 27, 2019 233   Southern Miss W 83-60 98%    
  Dec 04, 2019 276   Texas Southern W 98-70 99%    
  Dec 08, 2019 59   @ Washington W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 14, 2019 13   @ Arizona W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 18, 2019 7   North Carolina W 87-82 66%    
  Dec 21, 2019 204   Eastern Washington W 91-67 98%    
  Dec 30, 2019 236   Detroit Mercy W 94-68 99%    
  Jan 02, 2020 246   @ Portland W 84-63 97%    
  Jan 04, 2020 119   Pepperdine W 92-72 96%    
  Jan 09, 2020 159   @ San Diego W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 11, 2020 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 78-61 93%    
  Jan 16, 2020 137   Santa Clara W 86-65 96%    
  Jan 18, 2020 71   BYU W 88-73 90%    
  Jan 25, 2020 235   Pacific W 83-57 99%    
  Jan 30, 2020 137   @ Santa Clara W 83-68 90%    
  Feb 01, 2020 98   @ San Francisco W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 06, 2020 169   Loyola Marymount W 81-58 98%    
  Feb 08, 2020 32   @ St. Mary's W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 119   @ Pepperdine W 89-75 88%    
  Feb 20, 2020 98   San Francisco W 84-67 93%    
  Feb 22, 2020 71   @ BYU W 85-76 76%    
  Feb 27, 2020 159   San Diego W 83-61 97%    
  Feb 29, 2020 32   St. Mary's W 74-64 82%    
Projected Record 26 - 3 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 7.5 19.6 30.0 24.2 83.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.2 2.6 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 6.5 12.9 22.2 30.0 24.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 24.2    24.2
15-1 100.0% 30.0    28.2 1.8
14-2 88.2% 19.6    14.7 4.8 0.1
13-3 58.2% 7.5    3.9 3.0 0.6
12-4 23.7% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
11-5 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 83.0% 83.0 71.4 10.4 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 24.2% 100.0% 81.3% 18.6% 1.7 12.7 8.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-1 30.0% 99.8% 74.1% 25.7% 2.6 7.6 9.2 6.2 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
14-2 22.2% 99.0% 65.1% 33.9% 4.3 1.0 2.8 4.2 5.5 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.2%
13-3 12.9% 96.0% 54.4% 41.6% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 91.3%
12-4 6.5% 90.3% 46.6% 43.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.6 81.9%
11-5 2.6% 76.3% 38.1% 38.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.6 61.8%
10-6 1.0% 66.1% 30.7% 35.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 51.1%
9-7 0.3% 49.8% 30.0% 19.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 28.2%
8-8 0.2% 26.8% 26.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-9 0.0% 22.7% 22.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 97.3% 67.9% 29.4% 3.8 21.2 20.2 13.2 12.9 8.1 5.0 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 2.7 91.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 1.4 66.0 30.5 3.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.6 49.8 39.8 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 48.4 43.5 5.4 2.7