Gonzaga
West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#3
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#3
Pace76.5#33
Improvement+5.2#12

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#1
First Shot+9.6#3
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#29
Layup/Dunks+11.2#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
Freethrows+0.9#105
Improvement+2.4#63

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#23
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#27
Layups/Dunks+1.3#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#143
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement+2.8#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.8% 7.2% 2.3%
#1 Seed 37.3% 39.0% 19.2%
Top 2 Seed 71.5% 73.7% 47.8%
Top 4 Seed 96.6% 97.4% 88.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 99.8% 98.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.1% 98.6% 92.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.6% 96.8% 93.8%
Sweet Sixteen74.0% 74.6% 67.3%
Elite Eight51.0% 51.7% 43.0%
Final Four32.9% 33.4% 26.4%
Championship Game19.7% 20.1% 15.0%
National Champion11.9% 12.3% 7.9%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 2
Quad 25 - 010 - 2
Quad 39 - 020 - 2
Quad 412 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 341   Alabama St. W 95-64 99.6%    1 - 0 +14.9 +16.4 -1.1
  Nov 09, 2019 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 110-60 99.8%    2 - 0 +30.5 +24.4 +2.4
  Nov 12, 2019 242   North Dakota W 97-66 99%     3 - 0 +23.4 +12.1 +9.2
  Nov 15, 2019 131   @ Texas A&M W 79-49 90%     4 - 0 +35.0 +10.1 +24.5
  Nov 19, 2019 114   Texas Arlington W 72-66 95%     5 - 0 +6.5 -0.9 +7.3
  Nov 23, 2019 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-49 98%     6 - 0 +21.0 +0.2 +20.7
  Nov 27, 2019 250   Southern Miss W 94-69 98%     7 - 0 +20.0 +17.8 +2.0
  Nov 28, 2019 18   Oregon W 73-72 OT 71%     8 - 0 +14.7 +2.3 +12.3
  Nov 29, 2019 28   Michigan L 64-82 75%     8 - 1 -5.6 -2.8 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2019 244   Texas Southern W 101-62 99%     9 - 1 +31.3 +14.1 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2019 52   @ Washington W 83-76 74%     10 - 1 +19.8 +11.0 +8.1
  Dec 14, 2019 11   @ Arizona W 84-80 56%     11 - 1 +21.9 +15.7 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2019 59   North Carolina W 94-81 90%     12 - 1 +18.5 +12.8 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2019 175   Eastern Washington W 112-77 97%     13 - 1 +31.4 +20.8 +5.7
  Dec 30, 2019 266   Detroit Mercy W 93-72 99%     14 - 1 +12.4 +10.8 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2020 280   @ Portland W 85-72 97%     15 - 1 1 - 0 +9.3 +16.3 -6.3
  Jan 04, 2020 141   Pepperdine W 75-70 96%     16 - 1 2 - 0 +3.6 -7.8 +11.1
  Jan 09, 2020 199   @ San Diego W 94-50 95%     17 - 1 3 - 0 +44.4 +14.1 +25.4
  Jan 11, 2020 196   @ Loyola Marymount W 87-62 95%     18 - 1 4 - 0 +25.7 +12.4 +12.7
  Jan 16, 2020 137   Santa Clara W 104-54 96%     19 - 1 5 - 0 +48.9 +21.3 +23.0
  Jan 18, 2020 36   BYU W 92-69 84%     20 - 1 6 - 0 +31.6 +15.5 +14.8
  Jan 25, 2020 162   Pacific W 92-59 97%     21 - 1 7 - 0 +30.2 +21.3 +9.8
  Jan 30, 2020 137   @ Santa Clara W 86-71 92%    
  Feb 01, 2020 100   @ San Francisco W 85-73 86%    
  Feb 06, 2020 196   Loyola Marymount W 83-58 99%    
  Feb 08, 2020 37   @ St. Mary's W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 141   @ Pepperdine W 90-75 92%    
  Feb 20, 2020 100   San Francisco W 88-70 95%    
  Feb 22, 2020 36   @ BYU W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 27, 2020 199   San Diego W 87-62 99%    
  Feb 29, 2020 37   St. Mary's W 78-67 84%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 15 - 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.7 7.8 23.0 38.5 28.2 98.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 0.4 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 8.2 23.0 38.5 28.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 28.2    28.2
15-1 100.0% 38.5    38.5
14-2 100.0% 23.0    22.3 0.7
13-3 94.7% 7.8    4.5 3.1 0.2
12-4 37.1% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 98.1% 98.1 93.5 4.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 28.2% 100.0% 74.4% 25.6% 1.4 17.8 9.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
15-1 38.5% 100.0% 69.4% 30.5% 1.8 15.6 16.1 5.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-2 23.0% 100.0% 67.2% 32.8% 2.6 3.7 7.8 7.4 3.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-3 8.2% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 3.5 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-4 1.8% 99.4% 52.2% 47.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8%
11-5 0.3% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 68.9% 31.0% 2.1 37.3 34.2 17.0 8.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.9% 100.0% 1.4 67.0 29.8 3.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 100.0% 1.6 52.7 37.7 9.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 1.6 49.6 42.4 7.2 0.8