West Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   31 - 2 15 - 1 31 - 2 15 - 1 +19.3      +13.2 1 +6.0 36 76.7 33 +21.4 2 +20.8 1
22 BYU 99.1%   6   23 - 8 13 - 3 23 - 8 13 - 3 +13.6      +9.2 10 +4.4 63 71.6 104 +12.6 27 +14.5 2
43 St. Mary's 96.1%   9   25 - 8 11 - 5 25 - 8 11 - 5 +10.2      +7.5 22 +2.7 92 60.6 339 +12.6 28 +10.2 3
78 San Francisco 0.2%   21 - 12 9 - 7 21 - 12 9 - 7 +6.7      +3.9 71 +2.8 89 69.9 149 +6.2 87 +6.0 5
125 Pacific 0.0%   21 - 10 11 - 5 21 - 10 11 - 5 +2.8      +0.6 167 +2.2 105 62.7 324 +5.0 101 +8.4 4
135 Pepperdine 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 8 16 - 16 8 - 8 +2.2      +3.2 90 -1.0 208 74.6 50 +2.0 138 +3.4 6
162 Santa Clara 0.0%   18 - 13 6 - 10 18 - 13 6 - 10 +0.4      +0.1 179 +0.4 161 75.7 41 +1.7 144 -0.1 7
197 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   10 - 21 4 - 12 10 - 21 4 - 12 -1.9      -1.2 210 -0.7 200 59.5 349 -3.6 225 -2.9 8
228 San Diego 0.0%   8 - 23 2 - 14 8 - 23 2 - 14 -3.8      -5.7 318 +1.8 120 73.1 73 -4.9 241 -8.7 9
297 Portland 0.0%   7 - 23 1 - 15 7 - 23 1 - 15 -7.8      -6.3 325 -1.5 219 70.3 138 -8.0 293 -13.0 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
BYU 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 3.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.0 100.0
Pacific 3.0 100.0
Pepperdine 6.0 100.0
Santa Clara 7.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8.0 100.0
San Diego 9.0 100.0
Portland 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 15 - 1 100.0
BYU 13 - 3 100.0
St. Mary's 11 - 5 100.0
San Francisco 9 - 7 100.0
Pacific 11 - 5 100.0
Pepperdine 8 - 8 100.0
Santa Clara 6 - 10 100.0
Loyola Marymount 4 - 12 100.0
San Diego 2 - 14 100.0
Portland 1 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
BYU
St. Mary's
San Francisco
Pacific
Pepperdine
Santa Clara
Loyola Marymount
San Diego
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   68.9 29.5 1.5 0.1
BYU 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 6   0.0 0.0 1.1 13.1 42.1 35.4 6.6 0.6 0.0 1.0 99.1%
St. Mary's 96.1% 0.0% 96.1% 9   0.3 4.9 12.9 28.5 33.4 14.4 1.8 3.9 96.1%
San Francisco 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.2%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.7% 75.0% 53.7% 35.5% 22.5% 13.3%
BYU 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 69.6% 35.8% 15.5% 6.6% 2.5% 0.9%
St. Mary's 96.1% 0.7% 95.6% 43.6% 11.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
San Francisco 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.0 0.0 4.8 95.0 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 2.9 0.0 5.3 94.7 0.1
2nd Round 99.4% 2.1 0.6 18.0 52.2 29.2
Sweet Sixteen 86.9% 1.2 13.1 53.7 30.7 2.5
Elite Eight 63.7% 0.7 36.3 53.9 9.6 0.2
Final Four 41.3% 0.4 58.7 39.1 2.2
Final Game 25.0% 0.3 75.0 24.8 0.3
Champion 14.2% 0.1 85.8 14.2