Preseason Rankings
Southern
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
71 East Tennessee St. 35.8%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 5 +7.3      +4.6 60 +2.7 96 68.0 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 UNC Greensboro 20.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +4.5      +0.5 155 +3.9 71 68.2 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 Furman 19.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +4.2      +1.1 135 +3.0 89 67.1 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 Wofford 17.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +3.8      +3.1 87 +0.7 139 65.6 271 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Samford 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +1.0      +2.9 92 -1.9 224 71.8 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Mercer 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -2.7      -0.4 196 -2.3 236 66.7 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Western Carolina 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 -3.1      +0.4 161 -3.6 278 73.2 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Chattanooga 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -4.0      -1.5 223 -2.6 245 66.7 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 VMI 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 5 - 13 -8.0      -2.7 256 -5.4 324 76.7 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
306 The Citadel 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 19 5 - 13 -8.4      -0.2 186 -8.2 351 82.6 8 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 2.4 42.3 22.0 14.5 9.4 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
UNC Greensboro 3.3 22.7 20.8 17.3 14.2 10.6 6.6 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.3
Furman 3.4 20.6 20.2 18.0 14.3 11.0 7.4 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.4
Wofford 3.5 20.1 18.8 17.3 14.9 11.1 7.9 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.5
Samford 4.6 8.8 12.3 14.4 15.2 15.2 13.0 9.4 6.7 3.7 1.6
Mercer 6.1 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.9 12.8 15.9 15.8 14.0 10.8 5.8
Western Carolina 6.3 2.3 4.4 6.6 9.5 12.3 15.1 16.0 15.1 11.6 7.1
Chattanooga 6.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.1 11.0 14.5 16.7 17.1 13.8 8.8
VMI 8.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 8.2 12.2 17.6 23.7 27.9
The Citadel 8.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.6 7.7 11.7 17.4 24.3 29.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.8 6.5 8.4 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.5 12.3 8.0 3.4
UNC Greensboro 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.4 7.3 10.2 11.9 13.1 12.8 11.9 9.4 6.2 3.1 1.0
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.8 8.1 10.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 11.6 8.9 5.4 2.8 0.9
Wofford 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.2 6.3 8.3 10.8 12.2 12.5 12.4 10.6 8.3 5.5 2.5 0.8
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.0 6.1 7.9 10.0 11.7 12.1 11.9 10.5 8.7 6.1 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.2
Mercer 8 - 10 0.2 1.1 2.4 4.6 6.9 9.9 11.1 11.9 12.2 10.9 9.2 7.2 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 2.8 5.6 8.1 10.1 11.5 12.0 11.9 10.4 8.7 6.6 5.1 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.0 6.8 9.1 11.1 12.4 12.6 11.1 9.8 7.6 5.6 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
VMI 5 - 13 2.7 7.6 12.0 14.0 14.2 13.2 11.1 8.5 6.3 4.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 5 - 13 3.4 8.2 12.3 14.7 14.5 13.1 11.0 8.2 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 42.3% 31.5 8.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 22.7% 14.7 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Furman 20.6% 13.8 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
Wofford 20.1% 12.9 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
Samford 8.8% 5.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Mercer 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 35.8% 32.0% 3.8% 12   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.0 5.1 10.7 7.4 3.4 1.2 0.2 64.2 5.6%
UNC Greensboro 20.5% 18.3% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.7 5.8 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 79.5 2.6%
Furman 19.0% 16.8% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.3 5.5 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.2 81.0 2.6%
Wofford 17.5% 15.9% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.9 4.5 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.4 82.5 1.9%
Samford 9.0% 8.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.5 91.0 0.8%
Mercer 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 96.8 0.1%
Western Carolina 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 97.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 97.9 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
The Citadel 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 35.8% 2.2% 34.9% 11.8% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 20.5% 1.3% 19.8% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 19.0% 1.4% 18.3% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 17.5% 1.2% 17.0% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 9.0% 0.7% 8.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.1% 0.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.0 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.1 0.5 92.1 7.3 0.1
2nd Round 26.8% 0.3 73.2 26.0 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 8.6% 0.1 91.4 8.5 0.1
Elite Eight 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3 0.0
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1