IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.7	#204
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.7	#237
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#196

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.3	#236

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.2%	6.1%	2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.8	13.2	14.1

.500 or above	35.0%	58.6%	30.4%
.500 or above in Conference	39.6%	54.8%	36.7%
Conference Champion	2.8%	5.1%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	9.9%	4.6%	10.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
First Round	3.1%	5.9%	2.5%
Second Round	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 13
Quad 4	9 - 4	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	93	@ St. John's	L	70-80	16%
Nov 11, 2019	320	Kennesaw St.	W	77-67	83%
Nov 15, 2019	257	Florida Gulf Coast	W	74-68	70%
Nov 19, 2019	122	@ Georgia Southern	L	74-83	22%
Nov 23, 2019	131	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	70-77	26%
Nov 26, 2019	115	@ St. Bonaventure	L	61-70	21%
Dec 01, 2019	295	Canisius	W	74-69	66%
Dec 07, 2019	162	Georgia St.	W	74-73	51%
Dec 16, 2019	268	@ UNC Wilmington	W	77-76	51%
Dec 20, 2019	102	Furman	L	68-72	37%
Dec 22, 2019	163	Florida Atlantic	W	70-69	51%
Jan 01, 2020	96	@ UNC Greensboro	L	64-74	20%
Jan 04, 2020	235	Chattanooga	W	73-69	64%
Jan 11, 2020	215	@ Western Carolina	L	74-77	41%
Jan 15, 2020	300	VMI	W	81-73	76%
Jan 18, 2020	142	@ Samford	L	72-79	29%
Jan 22, 2020	215	Western Carolina	W	77-74	61%
Jan 25, 2020	300	@ VMI	W	78-76	58%
Jan 29, 2020	71	@ East Tennessee St.	L	65-78	14%
Feb 01, 2020	306	The Citadel	W	86-77	77%
Feb 05, 2020	102	@ Furman	L	65-75	21%
Feb 08, 2020	71	East Tennessee St.	L	68-75	28%
Feb 12, 2020	107	@ Wofford	L	66-76	21%
Feb 15, 2020	96	UNC Greensboro	L	67-71	37%
Feb 19, 2020	142	Samford	L	75-76	47%
Feb 22, 2020	235	@ Chattanooga	L	70-72	45%
Feb 26, 2020	306	@ The Citadel	W	83-80	59%
Feb 29, 2020	107	Wofford	L	69-73	39%
Projected Record						12 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.0	2.4	2.7	1.1	0.2	0.0					7.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	3.6	3.4	0.9	0.1	0.0						9.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.4	5.0	3.9	1.0	0.1								12.8	5th
6th						0.1	0.9	4.0	6.4	3.8	0.7	0.0									15.9	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	1.6	4.9	5.8	2.9	0.5	0.0										15.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	2.1	5.2	4.4	1.7	0.2	0.0											14.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.8	2.6	3.8	2.8	0.8	0.1													10.8	9th
10th	0.2	1.1	1.6	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.0														5.8	10th

Total	0.2	1.1	2.4	4.6	6.9	9.9	11.1	11.9	12.2	10.9	9.2	7.2	5.1	3.5	2.1	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	89.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	65.1%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	43.7%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.1%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.8%	2.8		1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		57.1%	17.1%	40.0%	9.6					0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		48.3%
17-1	0.1%		72.2%	62.5%	9.7%	11.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		25.8%
16-2	0.4%		42.0%	35.8%	6.2%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		9.7%
15-3	1.1%		31.1%	28.2%	2.9%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.8		4.0%
14-4	2.1%		17.2%	17.2%	0.0%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.7		0.1%
13-5	3.5%		12.8%	12.8%	0.0%	13.4												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	3.0		0.0%
12-6	5.1%		7.8%	7.7%	0.1%	14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.7		0.1%
11-7	7.2%		6.2%	6.2%		14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.8
10-8	9.2%		4.1%	4.1%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	8.8
9-9	10.9%		2.5%	2.5%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	10.6
8-10	12.2%		1.2%	1.2%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	12.0
7-11	11.9%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.8
6-12	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	11.0
5-13	9.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
4-14	6.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.9
3-15	4.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
2-16	2.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
1-17	1.1%																							1.1
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.2%	3.1%	0.1%	13.8					0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.4	96.8		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%