Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#102
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 23.1% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.9% 1.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.8 12.8
.500 or above 79.8% 88.5% 67.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 90.1% 79.6%
Conference Champion 20.6% 24.6% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.5%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 0.7%
First Round18.3% 22.1% 13.0%
Second Round4.8% 6.2% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 36 - 48 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 176   @ Gardner-Webb W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 08, 2019 109   Loyola Chicago W 64-61 62%    
  Nov 12, 2019 194   @ Charleston Southern W 72-69 63%    
  Nov 19, 2019 45   @ Alabama L 66-75 20%    
  Nov 26, 2019 317   @ Elon W 76-65 83%    
  Nov 27, 2019 135   Texas Arlington W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 02, 2019 79   @ South Florida L 65-71 31%    
  Dec 05, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 66-77 16%    
  Dec 08, 2019 340   South Carolina Upstate W 81-61 96%    
  Dec 14, 2019 218   Winthrop W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 20, 2019 204   @ Mercer W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 01, 2020 300   @ VMI W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 04, 2020 71   East Tennessee St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 08, 2020 235   @ Chattanooga W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 11, 2020 96   UNC Greensboro W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 15, 2020 215   Western Carolina W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 17, 2020 107   @ Wofford L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 22, 2020 142   Samford W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 25, 2020 306   @ The Citadel W 85-75 79%    
  Jan 29, 2020 300   VMI W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 05, 2020 204   Mercer W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 215   @ Western Carolina W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 12, 2020 142   @ Samford W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 15, 2020 235   Chattanooga W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 19, 2020 71   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 22, 2020 107   Wofford W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 26, 2020 96   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 29, 2020 306   The Citadel W 88-72 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.1 5.9 5.0 2.8 0.9 20.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.1 6.6 6.4 2.8 0.4 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.9 1.4 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.8 8.1 10.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 11.6 8.9 5.4 2.8 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.1
16-2 93.0% 5.0    4.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 67.0% 5.9    3.8 1.9 0.2
14-4 35.4% 4.1    1.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
13-5 12.2% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.6% 20.6 13.8 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 85.7% 62.6% 23.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.8%
17-1 2.8% 73.2% 54.4% 18.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 41.2%
16-2 5.4% 54.6% 42.0% 12.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 21.7%
15-3 8.9% 38.6% 33.2% 5.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 8.1%
14-4 11.6% 28.4% 26.8% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 2.2%
13-5 12.7% 19.4% 18.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.8%
12-6 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.9 0.0%
11-7 12.5% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.4 0.0%
10-8 10.2% 6.2% 6.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.5
9-9 8.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.8
8-10 5.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
7-11 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.0% 16.8% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.3 5.5 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.2 81.0 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 26.9 23.9 4.5 23.9 1.5 19.4