Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#213
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#59
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 15.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 45.9% 74.7% 43.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 82.0% 61.0%
Conference Champion 10.4% 18.7% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 2.5% 7.0%
First Four2.1% 1.8% 2.1%
First Round8.1% 14.7% 7.4%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 411 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 67   @ BYU L 72-86 9%    
  Nov 09, 2019 113   @ Stanford L 68-78 18%    
  Nov 13, 2019 275   @ Wyoming W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 24, 2019 148   Hofstra L 75-76 47%    
  Nov 27, 2019 294   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-72 66%    
  Nov 29, 2019 305   Denver W 76-71 69%    
  Nov 30, 2019 128   @ Santa Clara L 67-75 24%    
  Dec 04, 2019 247   @ Pacific L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 07, 2019 280   Sacramento St. W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 11, 2019 164   San Diego W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 14, 2019 111   San Francisco L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 22, 2019 149   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 28, 2019 82   @ UCLA L 74-86 15%    
  Jan 09, 2020 183   Hawaii W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 11, 2020 296   @ UC Riverside W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 15, 2020 106   UC Irvine L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 18, 2020 289   @ Long Beach St. W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 22, 2020 266   @ UC Davis L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 25, 2020 208   Cal St. Northridge W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 30, 2020 327   @ Cal Poly W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 106   @ UC Irvine L 65-75 20%    
  Feb 05, 2020 296   UC Riverside W 71-63 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 266   UC Davis W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 327   Cal Poly W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 20, 2020 160   UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 28, 2020 183   @ Hawaii L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 208   @ Cal St. Northridge L 77-80 40%    
  Mar 05, 2020 160   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-73 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 289   Long Beach St. W 81-74 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.2 2.3 1.1 0.2 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 4.1 1.7 0.3 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.7 6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.0 5.6 1.7 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.3 1.2 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.2 0.9 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 3.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.3 11.3 12.5 12.7 11.7 9.9 7.4 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 88.4% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
13-3 65.0% 3.2    1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 34.4% 2.5    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 9.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 6.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 66.9% 66.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2%
15-1 1.1% 51.0% 49.6% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.9%
14-2 2.6% 37.3% 37.0% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.5%
13-3 4.9% 26.7% 26.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.6
12-4 7.4% 21.1% 21.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 5.8
11-5 9.9% 13.6% 13.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 8.5
10-6 11.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 10.5
9-7 12.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.9
8-8 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.9
7-9 11.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.0
6-10 9.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
5-11 7.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.0
4-12 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.3 3.5 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%