Preseason Rankings
Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#196
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#267
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 18.8% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 76.6% 78.8% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 82.3% 66.3%
Conference Champion 22.7% 23.6% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.9% 6.4%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round17.7% 18.3% 11.3%
Second Round2.3% 2.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 330   San Jose St. W 84-69 92%    
  Nov 09, 2019 239   Monmouth W 77-69 78%    
  Nov 13, 2019 159   @ Bucknell L 77-79 42%    
  Nov 21, 2019 82   @ UCLA L 78-87 22%    
  Nov 24, 2019 213   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-75 53%    
  Nov 27, 2019 164   @ San Diego L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 01, 2019 312   Holy Cross W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 07, 2019 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 10, 2019 196   Stony Brook W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 19, 2019 143   @ Princeton L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 22, 2019 259   Manhattan W 70-61 79%    
  Dec 28, 2019 232   @ James Madison W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 30, 2019 181   @ Towson L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 02, 2020 246   William & Mary W 82-73 76%    
  Jan 04, 2020 317   Elon W 83-69 87%    
  Jan 09, 2020 130   @ Northeastern L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 16, 2020 268   @ UNC Wilmington W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 18, 2020 123   @ College of Charleston L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 23, 2020 240   Delaware W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 254   Drexel W 83-74 77%    
  Jan 30, 2020 317   @ Elon W 80-72 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 246   @ William & Mary W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 08, 2020 130   Northeastern W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 13, 2020 123   College of Charleston W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 268   UNC Wilmington W 85-75 79%    
  Feb 20, 2020 254   @ Drexel W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 240   @ Delaware W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 27, 2020 181   Towson W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 232   James Madison W 76-68 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.0 6.1 5.1 2.5 0.8 22.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 4.4 6.5 4.5 1.8 0.3 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.7 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.6 11.8 11.7 10.0 8.0 5.3 2.5 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 95.2% 5.1    4.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 76.6% 6.1    4.4 1.6 0.1
14-4 49.6% 5.0    2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1
12-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 15.6 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 72.7% 63.1% 9.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 26.0%
17-1 2.5% 56.3% 53.2% 3.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 6.6%
16-2 5.3% 45.1% 44.3% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 1.5%
15-3 8.0% 40.1% 39.7% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.8 0.8%
14-4 10.0% 30.8% 30.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 6.9 0.0%
13-5 11.7% 22.2% 22.2% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 9.1
12-6 11.8% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 10.0
11-7 11.6% 12.1% 12.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 10.2
10-8 10.6% 8.8% 8.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 9.6
9-9 8.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.2
8-10 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.8
7-11 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 3.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.3% 18.0% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.0 4.2 4.9 4.0 2.2 81.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 15.1 2.2 32.3 17.2 2.2 15.1 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 46.7% 12.0 46.7